Races · Senate · 2022 · VT

Senate · class II · open seat

Peter Welch vs Gerald Malloy

← UT Senate WA Senate →

Likely D — · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1292d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 5 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 5 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:5 of 5 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/26/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1039	—	LV	1292d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Peter Welch 63.0 · Gerald Malloy 32.0	poll arch
10/3/2022	University of New Hampshire	1.00	—(R+0.9)	765	—	LV	1315d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1315d old Poll was fielded 1315 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.	Peter Welch 62.0 · Gerald Malloy 28.0	poll arch
9/7/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1072	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1341d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Peter Welch 50.0 · Gerald Malloy 43.0	poll arch
4/18/2022	University of New Hampshire	1.00	—(R+0.9)	583	—	LV	1483d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1483d old Poll was fielded 1483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.	Peter Welch 62.0 · Christina Nolan 27.0	poll arch
9/15/2020	VPR/Vermont PBS	1.00	—	582	—	LV	no scored polls2063d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2063d old Poll was fielded 2063 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Patrick Leahy 38.0 · Phil Scott 41.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-29

Total IE spending

$305K

For candidates

$305K

Against candidates

Latest filing: 11/29/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E

Gerald Malloy (R)

$252K for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$861

Total raised (cycle)

$397K

Total spent

$398K

Debts

Source: FEC

$252K for AMERICAN LIBERTY FUND Super PAC
$10 for VERMONT RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE INC. POLITICAL COMMITTEE PAC

Christina Nolan (R)

$50K for · $0 against

Cash on hand

Total raised (cycle)

$405K

Total spent

$405K

Debts

Source: FEC

$50K for VALUE IN ELECTING WOMEN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Super PAC

Peter Welch (D)

$3K for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$2.0M

Total raised (cycle)

$5.4M

Total spent

$3.4M

Debts

Source: FEC

$3K for PROTECT THE VOTE Super PAC
$10 for SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Super PAC

Patrick Leahy (?)

$0 for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$1.3M

Total raised (cycle)

$1.0M

Total spent

$1.2M

Debts

Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Nov 19	—	+18.0	—
DDHQ	Safe D	Jul 20	—	+18.0	—
The Economist	Safe D	Sep 7	—	+18.0	—
538	Safe D	Jun 30	—	+18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe D	Jan 7	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 3	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (10/26/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (2 changes)

5/3/2026 Likely D via pvi held 1392d
7/11/2022 Safe D D+35.0 via polls