Races · Senate · 2022 · Vermont

Senate · class III · open seat

Peter Welch vs Gerald Malloy

← Utah Senate Washington Senate →

Safe DD +35.2 forecast· 5 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Welch (D)
1% Malloy (R)
Win probability
Peter Welch99% (D)
Gerald Malloy1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +35.2
80% CID+23.2 → D+47.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +35.2 · 80% CI D+23.2 → D+47.2
Actual result D+40.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+35.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+23.2 (10th pctile) to D+47.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +35.2

80% CI: D +23.2 → D +47.2 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	5
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+40.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
253035404550556065WELCH 62.2MALLOY 31.8SEP '22OCT '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 5 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 25	Data for Progress+1	1,039 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	63 · 32
Oct 22	Data for Progress	1,039 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	63 · 32
Oct 2	University of New Hampshire+1	765 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	62 · 28
Sep 30	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	765 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	62 · 28
Sep 6	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,072 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	50 · 43

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DPeter Welch0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RGerald Malloy0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-29

Gerald MalloyS2VT00292 ↗

Receipts

$397.3K

Disburse

$397.9K

Cash on hand

$861.27

Debts

Top industries

Computers / electronics$3.1K

Pharma / health products$2.9K

Top contributors

1A AUTO INC$5.8K

AUDAX GROUP$5.8K

GERALD MALLOY FOR US SENATE$5.7K

BARCLAY'S BANK PLC$5.0K

AMAZON$3.1K

Peter WelchS2VT00235 ↗

Receipts

$5.4M

Disburse

$3.4M

Cash on hand

$2.0M

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$14.3K

Securities & investment$8.7K

Real estate$7.3K

Govt employees$6.3K

Top contributors

BAIN CAPITAL$8.7K

AVENUE SOLUTIONS$7.5K

SHEARMAN & STERLING LLP$7.5K

POMERLEAU REAL ESTATE$7.3K

THORNTON LAW FIRM LLP$6.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$255.2K

D side

$3.0K · 1%

R side

$252.1K · 99%

Top spender

AMERICAN LIBERTY FUND

For / against split

For Welch $3.0K

For Malloy $252.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
AMERICAN LIBERTY FUND	R	$252.1K	99%	for Gerald Malloy
PROTECT THE VOTE	D	$3.0K	1%	for Peter Welch
VERMONT RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE INC. POLITICAL COMMITTEE	R	$10	0%	for Gerald Malloy
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Peter Welch

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 18

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 6

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jan 6

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 2

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified3 / 5deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-29

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks