Races · Senate · 2022 · Pennsylvania
Senate · class III · open seat
John Fetterman vs Mehmet Oz
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 64% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.9 (10th pctile) to D+14.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 64% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.1
80% CI: R +9.9 → D +14.1 · win prob 64%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 93 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+4.9 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 93 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 22 | Research Co.+1For · Research Co. | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 47 · 46 |
| Nov 5, 22 | Targoz Market ResearchFor · PollSmart MR | 631 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.712 tracked | +4.3noisy | 46 · 51 |
| Nov 5, 22 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 800 · unknown | R-LEAN | — | — | 53 · 47 |
| Nov 4, 22 | Research Co. | 450 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 49 · 48 |
| Nov 3, 22 | Patriot Polling | 846 · unknown | R-LEAN | R +1.410 tracked | -3.2r lean | 46 · 49 |
| Nov 3, 22 | Targoz Market Research | 631 · unknown | NEUTRAL | R +1.712 tracked | +4.3noisy | 46 · 51 |
| Nov 2, 22 | InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage | 750 · LV | R-LEAN | R +2.838 tracked | -0.5aligned | 46 · 48 |
| Nov 2, 22 | The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group | 1,097 · LV | R-LEAN | R +3.553 tracked | -2.6r lean | 46 · 48 |
| Nov 1, 22 | Remington Research Group+1 | 1,180 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.211 tracked | +1.6aligned | 44 · 47 |
| Nov 1, 22 | Marist College+1For · Marist College | 1,152 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.025 tracked | +1.7aligned | 50 · 44 |
Endorsements · 110 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet110
Endorsements tracked
John Fetterman0 · 0%
Mehmet Oz110 · 100%
Total110
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMehmet Oz110 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
Other72
Other · 72
- Dan Meuser · PA-09 (2019–present)
- Guy Reschenthaler · PA-14 (2019–present)
- Scott Perry · PA-10 (2013–present)
- Adrian Zuckerman · U.S. Ambassador to Romania (2019–2021)
- BIPAC
- Barry Jozwiak · 5th district (2015–present)
- Bob Mensch · 24th district (2009–2022), 147th district (2007–2009)
- Burgess Owens · Utah's 4th congressional district (2021–present)
- Callista Gingrich · U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See (2017–2021)
- Club for Growth
- Dan Crenshaw · Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)
- Dan Laughlin · 49th district (2017–present)
- Dan Senor · political advisor to Mitt Romney
- Dan Sullivan · Alaska (2015–present)
- David Cornstein · U.S. Ambassador to Hungary (2018–2020)
- David M. Friedman · U.S. Ambassador to Israel (2017–2021)
- Dawn Keefer · 92nd district (2015–2024)
- Ed McMullen · U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein (2017–2021)
- Elise Stefanik · New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)
- Frank Baxter · U.S. Ambassador to Uruguay (2006–2009)
- Frank Ryan · 101st district (2017–2023)
- Fraternal Order of Police Philadelphia · Lodge #5
- Gab · alt-tech social media website
- George Edward Glass · U.S. Ambassador to Portugal (2017–2021)
- Glenn Thompson · PA-16; formerly PA-05 (2009–present)
- Gun Owners of America
- Jack Brewer · NFL player
- Jack Rader · 176th district (2015–present)
- James Greenwood · PA-08 (1993–2005)
- Jamie McCourt · U.S. Ambassador to France and Monaco (2017–2021)
- Jesse Topper · 78th district (2014–present)
- Joe Walsh · Illinois's 8th congressional district (2011–2013) (Independent)
- John Arnold · philanthropist and founder of Arnold Ventures LLC
- John D. Hershey · 82nd district (2018–2023)
- Joni Ernst · Iowa (2015–present)
- Josh Hawley · Missouri (2019–present)
- Judy Ward · 30th district; formerly the 80th (2015–present)
- Kenneth Griffin · hedge fund manager and CEO of Citadel LLC
- Kenneth Langone · billionaire businessman, investor, and philanthropist
- Lana Marks · U.S. Ambassador to South Africa (2019–2021)
- Lloyd Smucker · PA-11; formerly PA-16 (2017–present)
- Michael Flynn · U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) (formerly Democratic)
- Mike Kelly · PA-16; formerly PA-03 (2011–present)
- Patrick Stefano · 32nd district (2015–present)
- Paul Tudor Jones · hedge fund manager (Independent)
- Pennsylvania State Police Fraternal Order of Police Pioneer Lodge #37
- R. Lee James · 64th district (2013–present)
- Randy Evans · U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg (2018–2021)
- Republican National Hispanic Assembly
- Rick Santorum · Pennsylvania (1995–2007)
- Robert O'Brien · National Security Advisor (2019–2021)
- Robert Pence · U.S. Ambassador to Finland (2018–2021)
- Robin Bernstein · U.S. Ambassador to the Dominican Republic (2018–2021)
- Roger Stone · political consultant and lobbyist
- Ronny Jackson · Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present)
- Ross Perot Jr. · real-estate developer
- Ryan Aument · 36th District (2015–2024)
- Sandra Schultz Newman · Pennsylvania Supreme Court justice (1996–2006)
- Scott Martin · 13th district (2017–present)
- Sean Hannity · conservative political commentator
- Stacy Garrity · Pennsylvania Treasurer (2021–present)
- Stanley Druckenmiller · lead investor for the Quantum Fund and hedge fund manager
- Stephen Scharzman · chairman and CEO of The Blackstone Group
- Sue Helm · 104th district (2007–2022)
- Susan B. Anthony List
- The Philadelphia Inquirer
- Tommy Sankey · 73rd district; formerly the 74th (2013–2022)
- Torren Ecker · 193rd district (2019–present)
- Ulrich Brechbuhl · Counselor of the U.S. Department of State (2018–2021)
- W. Robert Kohorst · U.S. Ambassador to Croatia (2018–2021)
- Wayne Langerholc · 35th district (2017–present)
- William Ford · chairman and CEO of General Atlantic
Elected officials29
Federal 16State 12Local 0
Elected officials · 29
- Donald Trump · 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2016
- Donald Trump Jr. · businessman and son of President Donald Trump
- Bill Kristol · Chief of Staff to the Vice President (1989–1993), founder of The Weekly Standard, and editor of The Bulwark (Democrat)
- John F. W. Rogers · executive vice president, chief of staff and secretary to the board of Goldman Sachs
- Newt Gingrich · U.S. representative from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999) and 50th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (1995–1999)
- Mike Huckabee · Governor of Arkansas (1996–2007)
- Rick Perry · U.S. Secretary of Energy (2017–2019) and Governor of Texas (2000–2015)
- Cris Dush · state senator from the 25th district (2021–present)
- Scott Brown · 19th United States Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020) and U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2010–2013)
- Joel Klein · New York City Schools Chancellor (2002–2011), United States assistant attorney general for the Antitrust Division (1996–2000), Deputy White House Counsel (1993–1995) (Democratic)
- Sean Reyes · Attorney General of Utah (2013–2025)
- Justin Muzinich · U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury (2018–2021)
- Mike Pompeo · U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)
- Ben Carson · U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2017–2021)
- David Maloney · state representative from the 130th district (2011–present)
- Doug Mastriano · state senator for the 33rd district (2019–present)
- Emil Henry · Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions (2005–2007)
- Fred Keller · U.S. Representative for PA-12 (2019–2023)
- Greg Rothman · state representative from the 87th district (2015–2022)
- Hope Hicks · Counselor to the President (2020–2021), White House Communications Director (2017–2018), White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017)
- Matt Baker · speaker pro tempore of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2011–2018), state representative from the 68th district (1993–2018)
- Miles Taylor · chief of staff to the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019)
- Pete Hoekstra · U.S. Ambassador to the Netherlands (2018–2021) and U.S. Representative for Michigan's 2nd congressional district (1993–2011)
- Robert Lighthizer · U.S. Trade Representative (2017–2021)
- Ryan Zinke · United States Secretary of the Interior (2017–2019) and U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district (2015–2017)
- Scott Wagner · 28th district (2014–2018), Republican nominee for Governor in 2018
- Sebastian Gorka · Deputy Assistant to the President (2017)
- Vernon Jones · Georgia state representative (1993–2001, 2017–2021)
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Hugh Hewitt · radio host, commentator
- John Ratzenberger · actor
- Shmuley Boteach · Orthodox Jewish rabbi, author, and TV host
- Ted Nugent · musician and activist
- Tomi Lahren · conservative political commentator and television host
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Gary Cohn · Director of the National Economic Council (2017–2018) (Democratic)
- Larry Kudlow · Director of the National Economic Council
- National Border Patrol Council
- Pennsylvania Republican Party
DJohn Fetterman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-30John FettermanS6PA00274 ↗
Receipts
$76.3M
Disburse
$75.7M
Cash on hand
$627.3K
Debts
$3.7K
Top industries
Education$299.8K
Education · $299.8K
- University of Pennsylvania · $89.3K
- University of Pittsburgh · $67.9K
- Pennsylvania State University · $55.9K
- University of California · $30.5K
- Carnegie Mellon University · $30.1K
- Stanford University · $26.1K
Individuals $299.8K · PACs $0
Internet$121.0K
Internet · $121.0K
- Google · $67.6K
- Google, INC. · $53.4K
Individuals $121.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$26.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $26.5K
- Lynch Carpenter, LLP · $26.5K
Individuals $26.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA$89.3K
UPMC$73.4K
UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH$67.9K
GOOGLE$67.6K
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY$55.9K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.3M
D side
$2.9M · 55%
R side
$2.4M · 45%
Top spender
FOR OUR FUTURE
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOR OUR FUTURE super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.1M | 20% | for John Fetterman |
| LET AMERICA VOTE PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $645.9K | 12% | for John Fetterman |
| END CITIZENS UNITED pac · boosts D
| D | $302.4K | 6% | for John Fetterman |
| API PA VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $260.8K | 5% | for John Fetterman |
| PENNSYLVANIA UNITED pac · boosts D
| D | $228.0K | 4% | for John Fetterman |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup5
Tossup · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 3
- DDHQ · Oct 14
- The Economist · Oct 31
- 538 · Nov 6
- Inside Elections · Aug 24
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 6
The Cook Political Report
TossupDDHQ
TossupThe Economist
Tossup538
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified56 / 93deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-30
Endorsements110 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks