Races · Senate · 2022 · PA

Senate · class II · open seat

John Fetterman vs Mehmet Oz

← OR Senate SC Senate →

Tilt R — · 62 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1281d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 62 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R

tilt-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 62 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:62 of 62 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/6/2022	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	—	LV	1281d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 46.0 · John Fetterman 47.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	631	—	LV	1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Mehmet Oz 51.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
11/3/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	750	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1284d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1284d old Poll was fielded 1284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 48.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
11/3/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1097	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1284d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1284d old Poll was fielded 1284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 48.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Remington Research Group	0.61	neutral(D+0.5)	1180	—	LV	1285d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.5pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 47.0 · John Fetterman 44.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1152	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1285d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 44.0 · John Fetterman 50.0	poll arch
11/1/2022	Susquehanna Polling & Research	1.12	neutral(D+0.1)	700	—	LV	1286d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mehmet Oz 48.0 · John Fetterman 47.0	poll arch
10/31/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1287d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Mehmet Oz 48.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
10/30/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1288d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 45.0 · John Fetterman 47.0	poll arch
10/30/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1005	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1288d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 42.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
10/28/2022	Big Data Poll	0.69	R(R+5.8)	1005	—	LV	3 scored polls1290d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 48.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
10/28/2022	co/efficient	0.71	R(R+5.4)	1716	—	LV	historical bias R+5.4pt1290d old+4 historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=1,716 Sample size of 1,716 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Mehmet Oz 48.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
10/28/2022	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	460	—	LV	1290d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. university-sponsored: In the final Muhlenberg College Commissioned by In the final Muhlenberg College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 47.0 · John Fetterman 47.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	Wick Insights	0.74	R(R+4.0)	1000	—	LV	1291d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 48.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
10/26/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	750	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1292d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 48.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
10/26/2022	Siena Research/NYT	3.57	—(R+1.1)	620	—	LV	3 scored polls1292d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.57 Aggregation weight is 3.57 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Mehmet Oz 44.0 · John Fetterman 49.0	poll arch
10/24/2022	YouGov/CBS News	1.00	—	1084	—	LV	no scored polls1294d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1294d old Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 49.0 · John Fetterman 51.0	poll arch
10/23/2022	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	620	—	RV	1295d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+2 1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 40.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
10/20/2022	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	972	—	LV	bias R+2.1pt1298d old+3 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 1298d old Poll was fielded 1298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 43.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
10/20/2022	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	500	—	LV	1298d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 1298d old Poll was fielded 1298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 43.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
10/19/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1299d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1299d old Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 46.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
10/17/2022	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	901	—	RV	historical bias D+4.4pt1301d old+2 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 41.0 · John Fetterman 52.0	poll arch
10/14/2022	Wick Insights	0.74	R(R+4.0)	1013	—	LV	1304d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1304d old Poll was fielded 1304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 49.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
10/12/2022	Patriot Polling	1.37	R(R+1.4)	857	—	RV	1306d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1306d old Poll was fielded 1306 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias R+1.4pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.	Mehmet Oz 48.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
10/12/2022	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research	1.00	L	1400	—	LV	no scored polls1306d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1306d old Poll was fielded 1306 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 46.0 · John Fetterman 48.0	poll arch
10/11/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1078	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1307d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 45.0 · John Fetterman 47.0	poll arch
9/30/2022	Center Street PAC	1.00	L	971	—	RV	no scored polls1318d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1318d old Poll was fielded 1318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 34.0 · John Fetterman 50.0	poll arch
9/30/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1318d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1318d old Poll was fielded 1318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 40.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
9/26/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1322d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1322d old Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Mehmet Oz 43.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
9/26/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1008	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1322d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1322d old Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 41.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
9/25/2022	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	517	—	RV	1323d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+2 1323d old Poll was fielded 1323 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 42.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
9/24/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1324d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1324d old Poll was fielded 1324 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 42.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
9/22/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1242	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1326d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1326d old Poll was fielded 1326 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 41.0 · John Fetterman 51.0	poll arch
9/19/2022	The Phillips Academy Poll	1.00	—	759	—	RV	no scored polls1329d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1329d old Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 45.0 · John Fetterman 47.0	poll arch
9/16/2022	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	420	—	LV	1332d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1332d old Poll was fielded 1332 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 44.0 · John Fetterman 49.0	poll arch
9/15/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1078	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1333d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1333d old Poll was fielded 1333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 46.0 · John Fetterman 48.0	poll arch
9/12/2022	YouGov/CBS News	1.00	—	1194	—	RV	no scored polls1336d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1336d old Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 47.0 · John Fetterman 52.0	poll arch
9/7/2022	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	828	—	RV	1341d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 36.0 · John Fetterman 57.0	poll arch
9/3/2022	RABA Research	1.00	—	679	—	LV	no scored polls1345d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1345d old Poll was fielded 1345 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 40.0 · John Fetterman 49.0	poll arch
9/1/2022	Kurt Jetta	1.00	neutral	1012	—	RV	no scored polls1347d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1347d old Poll was fielded 1347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 33.0 · John Fetterman 51.0	poll arch
8/29/2022	Susquehanna Polling & Research	1.12	neutral(D+0.1)	718	—	LV	1350d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1350d old Poll was fielded 1350 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mehmet Oz 44.0 · John Fetterman 49.0	poll arch
8/23/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1034	—	LV	1356d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1356d old Poll was fielded 1356 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Mehmet Oz 44.0 · John Fetterman 48.0	poll arch
8/21/2022	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	522	—	RV	1358d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+2 1358d old Poll was fielded 1358 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 36.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
8/18/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1096	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1361d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1361d old Poll was fielded 1361 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 44.0 · John Fetterman 48.0	poll arch
8/10/2022	Public Opinion Strategies *	1.00	—	600	—	RV	no scored polls1369d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1369d old Poll was fielded 1369 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 36.0 · John Fetterman 52.0	poll arch
8/1/2022	Kurt Jetta	1.00	neutral	1206	—	A	no scored pollsadult sample+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. 1378d old Poll was fielded 1378 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.	Mehmet Oz 30.0 · John Fetterman 47.0	poll arch
7/26/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	908	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1384d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1384d old Poll was fielded 1384 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 36.0 · John Fetterman 47.0	poll arch
7/24/2022	PEM Management Corporation	1.00	R	300	—	LV	no scored pollsn=300+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=300 Sample size of 300 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.7pt — wider than typical. 1386d old Poll was fielded 1386 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 38.0 · John Fetterman 44.0	poll arch
7/21/2022	Blueprint Polling	1.00	L	712	—	LV	no scored polls1389d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1389d old Poll was fielded 1389 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 40.0 · John Fetterman 49.0	poll arch
7/20/2022	Beacon Research	1.00	L	1012	—	RV	no scored polls1390d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1390d old Poll was fielded 1390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mehmet Oz 34.0 · John Fetterman 47.0	poll arch
7/19/2022	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	1200	—	LV	no scored polls1391d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1391d old Poll was fielded 1391 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mehmet Oz 40.0 · John Fetterman 51.0	poll arch
6/19/2022	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research	1.00	L	1382	—	LV	no scored polls1421d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1421d old Poll was fielded 1421 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 44.0 · John Fetterman 50.0	poll arch
6/17/2022	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	535	—	LV	1423d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1423d old Poll was fielded 1423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 44.0 · John Fetterman 48.0	poll arch
6/13/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1427d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1427d old Poll was fielded 1427 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mehmet Oz 37.0 · John Fetterman 46.0	poll arch
5/10/2022	Susquehanna Polling & Research	1.12	neutral(D+0.1)	—	—	unknown	1461d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1461d old Poll was fielded 1461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll. newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mehmet Oz 33.0 · John Fetterman 51.0	poll arch
12/5/2021	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	581	—	LV	1617d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4 1617d old Poll was fielded 1617 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Mehmet Oz 42.0 · John Fetterman 44.0	poll arch
5/19/2021	Garin-Hart-Yang	1.00	—	450	—	LV	no scored polls1817d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1817d old Poll was fielded 1817 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Jeff Bartos 36.0 · John Fetterman 45.0	poll arch
5/19/2021	Garin-Hart-Yang	1.00	—	450	—	LV	no scored polls1817d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1817d old Poll was fielded 1817 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Sean Parnell 42.0 · John Fetterman 42.0	poll arch
5/14/2021	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	310	—	LV	n=3101822d old+4 n=310 Sample size of 310 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.6pt — wider than typical. 1822d old Poll was fielded 1822 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Jeff Bartos 38.0 · John Fetterman 48.0	poll arch
5/14/2021	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	341	—	LV	n=3411822d old+4 n=341 Sample size of 341 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.3pt — wider than typical. 1822d old Poll was fielded 1822 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Jeff Bartos 42.0 · Conor Lamb 43.0	poll arch
5/14/2021	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	310	—	LV	n=3101822d old+4 n=310 Sample size of 310 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.6pt — wider than typical. 1822d old Poll was fielded 1822 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Sean Parnell 40.0 · John Fetterman 48.0	poll arch
5/14/2021	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	341	—	LV	n=3411822d old+4 n=341 Sample size of 341 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.3pt — wider than typical. 1822d old Poll was fielded 1822 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Sean Parnell 44.0 · Conor Lamb 42.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 113 total

Mehmet Oz (R)

113 endorsements · source

Elected officials (29)

Ben Carson — U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2017–2021) [ 63 ]
Bill Kristol — Chief of Staff to the Vice President (1989–1993), founder of The Weekly Standard , and editor of The Bulwark (Democrat) [ 47 ]
Cris Dush — state senator from the 25th district (2021–present) [ 63 ]
David Maloney — state representative from the 130th district (2011–present) [ 63 ]
Donald Trump — 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) (previously endorsed Parnell) [ 91 ]
Donald Trump Jr. — businessman and son of President Donald Trump [ 60 ]
Doug Mastriano — state senator for the 33rd district (2019–present) [ 63 ]
Emil Henry — Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions (2005–2007) [ 80 ]
Fred Keller — U.S. Representative for PA-12 (2019–2023) [ 71 ] (switched endorsement to Oz) [ 72 ]
Greg Rothman — state representative from the 87th district (2015–2022) [ 63 ]
Hope Hicks — Counselor to the President (2020–2021), White House Communications Director (2017–2018), White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017) [ 81 ]
Joel Klein — New York City Schools Chancellor (2002–2011), United States assistant attorney general for the Antitrust Division (1996–2000), Deputy White House Counsel (1993–1995) (Democratic) [ 89 ]
John F. W. Rogers — executive vice president, chief of staff and secretary to the board of Goldman Sachs [ 80 ]
Justin Muzinich — U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury (2018–2021) [ 80 ]
Matt Baker — speaker pro tempore of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2011–2018), state representative from the 68th district (1993–2018) [ 63 ]
Mike Huckabee — Governor of Arkansas (1996–2007) [ 63 ]
Mike Pompeo — U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017) [ 82 ]
Miles Taylor — chief of staff to the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) [ 100 ]
Newt Gingrich — U.S. representative from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999) and 50th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (1995–1999) [ 94 ]
Pete Hoekstra — U.S. Ambassador to the Netherlands (2018–2021) and U.S. Representative for Michigan's 2nd congressional district (1993–2011) [ 63 ]
Rick Perry — U.S. Secretary of Energy (2017–2019) and Governor of Texas (2000–2015) [ 63 ]
Robert Lighthizer — U.S. Trade Representative (2017–2021) [ 63 ]
Ryan Zinke — United States Secretary of the Interior (2017–2019) and U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district (2015–2017) [ 63 ]
Scott Brown — 19th United States Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020) and U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2010–2013) [ 63 ]
Scott Wagner — 28th district (2014–2018), Republican nominee for Governor in 2018 [ 76 ]
Sean Reyes — Attorney General of Utah (2013–2025) [ 63 ]
Sebastian Gorka — Deputy Assistant to the President (2017) [ 62 ]
Ted Cruz — Texas (2013–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2016 [ 84 ]
Vernon Jones — Georgia state representative (1993–2001, 2017–2021) [ 62 ]

Organizations / unions (4)

Gary Cohn — Director of the National Economic Council (2017–2018) (Democratic) [ 80 ]
Larry Kudlow — Director of the National Economic Council [ 16 ]
National Border Patrol Council — [ 63 ]
Pennsylvania Republican Party — [ 101 ]

Individuals / celebrities (5)

Hugh Hewitt — radio host, commentator [ 90 ]
John Ratzenberger — actor [ 63 ]
Shmuley Boteach — Orthodox Jewish rabbi, author, and TV host [ 92 ]
Ted Nugent — musician and activist [ 63 ]
Tomi Lahren — conservative political commentator and television host [ 62 ]

Other (75)

20 — 30%
30 — 40%
40 — 50%
Adrian Zuckerman — U.S. Ambassador to Romania (2019–2021) [ 63 ]
BIPAC — [ 63 ]
Barry Jozwiak — 5th district (2015–present) [ 63 ]
Bob Mensch — 24th district (2009–2022), 147th district (2007–2009) [ 75 ]
Burgess Owens — Utah's 4th congressional district (2021–present) [ 62 ]
Callista Gingrich — U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See (2017–2021) [ 63 ]
Club for Growth — [ 65 ]
Dan Crenshaw — Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present) [ 97 ]
Dan Laughlin — 49th district (2017–present) [ 75 ]
Dan Meuser — PA-09 (2019–present) [ 87 ]
Dan Senor — political advisor to Mitt Romney [ 80 ]
Dan Sullivan — Alaska (2015–present) [ 86 ]
David Cornstein — U.S. Ambassador to Hungary (2018–2020) [ 63 ]
David M. Friedman — U.S. Ambassador to Israel (2017–2021) [ 63 ]
Dawn Keefer — 92nd district (2015–2024) [ 75 ]
Ed McMullen — U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein (2017–2021) [ 63 ]
Elise Stefanik — New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present) [ 63 ]
Frank Baxter — U.S. Ambassador to Uruguay (2006–2009) [ 63 ]
Frank Ryan — 101st district (2017–2023) [ 63 ]
Fraternal Order of Police Philadelphia — Lodge #5 [ 63 ]
Gab — alt-tech social media website [ 69 ]
George Edward Glass — U.S. Ambassador to Portugal (2017–2021) [ 63 ]
Glenn Thompson — PA-16 ; formerly PA-05 (2009–present) [ 88 ]
Gun Owners of America — [ 66 ]
Guy Reschenthaler — PA-14 (2019–present) (switched endorsement to Oz after Parnell withdrew) [ 99 ]
Jack Brewer — NFL player [ 70 ]
Jack Rader — 176th district (2015–present) [ 63 ]
James Greenwood — PA-08 (1993–2005) [ 47 ]
Jamie McCourt — U.S. Ambassador to France and Monaco (2017–2021) [ 63 ]
Jesse Topper — 78th district (2014–present) [ 74 ]
Joe Walsh — Illinois's 8th congressional district (2011–2013) (Independent) [ 100 ]
John Arnold — philanthropist and founder of Arnold Ventures LLC [ 78 ]
John D. Hershey — 82nd district (2018–2023) [ 74 ]
Joni Ernst — Iowa (2015–present) [ 63 ]
Josh Hawley — Missouri (2019–present) [ 96 ]
Judy Ward — 30th district; formerly the 80th (2015–present) [ 75 ]
Kenneth Griffin — hedge fund manager and CEO of Citadel LLC [ 89 ]
Kenneth Langone — billionaire businessman, investor, and philanthropist [ 78 ]
Lana Marks — U.S. Ambassador to South Africa (2019–2021) [ 63 ]
Lloyd Smucker — PA-11 ; formerly PA-16 (2017–present) [ 88 ]
Michael Flynn — U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) (formerly Democratic) [ 61 ]
Mike Kelly — PA-16 ; formerly PA-03 (2011–present) [ 99 ]
Patrick Stefano — 32nd district (2015–present) [ 74 ]
Paul Tudor Jones — hedge fund manager (Independent) [ 89 ]
Pennsylvania State Police Fraternal Order of Police Pioneer Lodge #37 — [ 63 ]
R. Lee James — 64th district (2013–present) [ 77 ]
Randy Evans — U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg (2018–2021) [ 63 ]
Republican National Hispanic Assembly — [ 67 ]
Rick Santorum — Pennsylvania (1995–2007) [ 85 ]
Robert O'Brien — National Security Advisor (2019–2021) [ 93 ]
Robert Pence — U.S. Ambassador to Finland (2018–2021) [ 63 ]
Robin Bernstein — U.S. Ambassador to the Dominican Republic (2018–2021) [ 63 ]
Roger Stone — political consultant and lobbyist [ 79 ]
Ronny Jackson — Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present) [ 98 ]
Ross Perot Jr. — real-estate developer [ 78 ]
Ryan Aument — 36th District (2015–2024) [ 63 ]
Sandra Schultz Newman — Pennsylvania Supreme Court justice (1996–2006) [ 63 ]
Scott Martin — 13th district (2017–present) [ 63 ]
Scott Perry — PA-10 (2013–present) [ 64 ]
Sean Hannity — conservative political commentator [ 16 ]
Stacy Garrity — Pennsylvania Treasurer (2021–present) [ 73 ]
Stanley Druckenmiller — lead investor for the Quantum Fund and hedge fund manager [ 89 ]
Stephen Scharzman — chairman and CEO of The Blackstone Group [ 89 ]
Sue Helm — 104th district (2007–2022) [ 63 ]
Susan B. Anthony List — [ 68 ]
The Philadelphia Inquirer — [ 102 ]
Tommy Sankey — 73rd district ; formerly the 74th (2013–2022) [ 75 ]
Torren Ecker — 193rd district (2019–present) [ 75 ]
Ulrich Brechbuhl — Counselor of the U.S. Department of State (2018–2021) [ 63 ]
W. Robert Kohorst — U.S. Ambassador to Croatia (2018–2021) [ 63 ]
Wayne Langerholc — 35th district (2017–present) [ 74 ]
William Ford — chairman and CEO of General Atlantic [ 89 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-30

Total IE spending

$9.9M

For candidates

$9.3M

Against candidates

$565K

Latest filing: 12/30/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E

Conor Lamb (D)

$4.1M for · $399 against

Cash on hand

$5K

Total raised (cycle)

$6.4M

Total spent

$7.2M

Debts

$3K

Source: FEC

$3.6M for PENN PROGRESS, INC. Super PAC
$494K for VOTEVETS.ORG ACTION FUND PAC
$41K for INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS LOCAL 98 COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION PAC
$10K for MID-ATLANTIC LABORERS' POLITICAL LEAGUE - LABORERS' INTERNATIONAL UNION OF N.A. PAC
$399 against PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC PAC

John Fetterman (D)

$2.9M for · $108K against

Cash on hand

$627K

Total raised (cycle)

$76.3M

Total spent

$75.7M

Debts

$4K

Source: FEC

$1.1M for FOR OUR FUTURE Super PAC
$646K for LET AMERICA VOTE PAC PAC
$302K for END CITIZENS UNITED PAC
$261K for API PA VOTES Super PAC
$228K for PENNSYLVANIA UNITED PAC

Jeff Bartos (R)

$2.3M for · $0 against

Cash on hand

Total raised (cycle)

$3.5M

Total spent

$3.5M

Debts

Source: FEC

$2.0M for JOBS FOR OUR FUTURE PAC Super PAC
$278K for BE COUNTED PAC
$8K for RIVER HORSE PAC Super PAC
$399 for PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC PAC

Sean Parnell (R)

$0 for · $456K against

Cash on hand

$35K

Total raised (cycle)

$2.1M

Total spent

$2.3M

Debts

$20K

Source: FEC

$456K against JOBS FOR OUR FUTURE PAC Super PAC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Oct 4	—	0.0	—
DDHQ	Tossup	Oct 15	—	0.0	—
The Economist	Tossup	Nov 1	—	0.0	—
538	Tossup	Nov 7	—	0.0	—
Inside Elections	Tossup	Aug 25	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	Nov 7	—	-3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/6/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (4 changes)

5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi held 1279d
11/1/2022 Tilt D D+1.3 via polls held 14d
10/18/2022 Lean D D+4.2 via polls held 99d
7/11/2022 Likely D D+9.3 via polls