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Races · Senate · 2022 · Oregon
Senate · class III · open seat

Ron Wyden vs Jo Rae Perkins

← Oklahoma SenatePennsylvania Senate →
Safe DD +19.6 forecast· 10 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Wyden (D)
1% Perkins (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +19.6 · 80% CI D+7.6 → D+31.6
Actual result D+14.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.6 (10th pctile) to D+31.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.6
80% CI: D +7.6 → D +31.6 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used10
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+14.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

30354045505560WYDEN 53.1PERKINS 38.5SEP '22OCT '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 10 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 5Data for Progress+11,393 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned56 · 42
Nov 2Data for Progress1,393 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned56 · 42
Oct 31Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling975 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 34
Oct 30Emerson College975 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 34
Oct 17Data for Progress+11,021 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 40
Oct 17CiviqsFor · Civiqs804 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean55 · 38
Oct 16Civiqs804 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean55 · 38
Oct 16Data for Progress1,021 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 40
Sep 30Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling796 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 32
Sep 29Emerson College796 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 32

Endorsements · 11 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
10Wyden · 91%
Perkins · 9%1
DRon Wyden10 endorsers
Most notable · Feminist Majority PAC
Organizations6
Other4
RJo Rae Perkins1 endorser
Most notable · Lars Larson · conservative talk show host
Celebrity1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-28
Ron WydenS6OR00110 ↗
Receipts
$10.5M
Disburse
$9.4M
Cash on hand
$3.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Computers / electronics$48.8K
Education$23.4K
Top contributors
NIKE$52.9K
INTEL$48.8K
LAZARD$44.2K
SYNERGI PARTNERS$29.5K
STANFORD UNIVERSITY$23.4K
Jo Rae PerkinsS4OR00156 ↗
Receipts
$125.8K
Disburse
$148.5K
Cash on hand
$3.1K
Debts
$5.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$218.9K
D side
$215.1K · 98%
R side
$3.8K · 2%
Top spender
WEB3 FORWARD
For / against split
For Wyden $215.1K
Against Perkins $8.67
For Perkins $3.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WEB3 FORWARDD$215.0K98%for Ron Wyden
OREGON RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY PACR$3.8K2%for Jo Rae Perkins
LINN COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEED$63.250%for Ron Wyden
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Ron Wyden
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.670%against Jo Rae Perkins

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Nov 18
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 6
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jan 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 2

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified5 / 10deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-28
Endorsements11 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks