Races · Senate · 2022 · OR
Senate · class II · open seat

Ron Wyden vs Jo Rae Perkins

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Lean D — · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1281d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 5 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 5 results

5 of 5 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/6/2022Data for Progress1.00—(D+1.0)1393—LV
1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1281d old
    Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Ron Wyden 56.0 · Jo Rae Perkins 42.0pollarch
11/1/2022Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)975—LV
1286d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1286d old
    Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ron Wyden 51.0 · Jo Rae Perkins 34.0pollarch
10/18/2022Data for Progress1.00—(D+1.0)1021—LV
1300d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1300d old
    Poll was fielded 1300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Ron Wyden 51.0 · Jo Rae Perkins 40.0pollarch
10/18/2022Civiqs0.99L(D+2.5)804—LV
bias D+2.5pt1300d old+2
  • bias D+2.5pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt.
  • 1300d old
    Poll was fielded 1300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ron Wyden 55.0 · Jo Rae Perkins 38.0pollarch
10/1/2022Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)796—LV
1317d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1317d old
    Poll was fielded 1317 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ron Wyden 51.0 · Jo Rae Perkins 32.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 20 total
Jo Rae Perkins (R)
7 endorsements · source
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Lars Larson — conservative talk show host [ 26 ]
Other (6)
  • 20 — 30%
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
Ron Wyden (D)
13 endorsements · source
Organizations / unions (6)
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 9 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 12 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 13 ]
  • Oregon Education Association — PAC [ 17 ]
  • Population Connection Action Fund — [ 14 ]
  • Service Employees International Union — (SEIU) - Oregon State Council [ 18 ]
Other (7)
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • 90 — 100%
  • Giffords — [ 10 ]
  • Jewish Dems — [ 11 ]
  • Pro-Israel America — [ 15 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 16 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-28
Total IE spending
$219K
For candidates
$219K
Against candidates
$9
Latest filing: 10/28/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Ron Wyden (D)
$215K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$3.3M
Total raised (cycle)
$10.5M
Total spent
$9.4M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Jo Rae Perkins (R)
$4K for · $9 against
Cash on hand
$3K
Total raised (cycle)
$126K
Total spent
$149K
Debts
$6K
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Nov 19 — +18.0 —
DDHQ Safe D Jul 20 — +18.0 —
The Economist Safe D Sep 7 — +18.0 —
538 Safe D Jun 30 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Jan 7 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Nov 3 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/6/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 1302d
  • 10/9/2022 Safe D D+19.0 via polls held 90d
  • 7/11/2022 Lean D via pvi