Races · Senate · 2022 · Oklahoma
Senate · class III · open seat
Madison Horn vs James Lankford
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+40.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+52.1 (10th pctile) to R+28.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +40.1
80% CI: R +52.1 → R +28.1 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 19 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+32.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 19 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Ascend Action+1 | 682 · LV | D-LEAN | D +13.27 tracked | +10.6d lean | 36 · 56 |
| Nov 4 | Ascend Action | 682 · unknown | D-LEAN | D +13.27 tracked | +10.6d lean | 36 · 56 |
| Oct 27 | Amber Integrated+1For · AMBER INTEGRATED | 501 · LV | D-LEAN | D +7.87 tracked | +8.8d lean | 38 · 52 |
| Oct 27 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 33 · 57 |
| Oct 27 | Ascend Action+1 | 749 · LV | D-LEAN | D +13.27 tracked | +10.6d lean | 35 · 51 |
| Oct 26 | Emerson College | 1,000 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 34 · 62 |
| Oct 26 | Amber Integrated | 501 · unknown | D-LEAN | D +7.87 tracked | +8.8d lean | 38 · 52 |
| Oct 25 | Ascend Action | 749 · unknown | D-LEAN | D +13.27 tracked | +10.6d lean | 34 · 51 |
| Oct 14 | Amber Integrated+1For · AMBER INTEGRATED | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | D +7.87 tracked | +8.8d lean | 36 · 52 |
| Oct 13 | Amber Integrated | 500 · unknown | D-LEAN | D +7.87 tracked | +8.8d lean | 36 · 52 |
Endorsements · 120 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet120
Endorsements tracked
Madison Horn0 · 0%
James Lankford120 · 100%
Total120
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJames Lankford120 endorsers
Most notable · Charles McCall · Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives and state representative for the 22nd district (2013–2024)
Elected officials87
Federal 13State 73Local 1
Elected officials · 87
- Charles McCall · Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives and state representative for the 22nd district (2013–2024)
- Newt Gingrich · 50th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999)
- Kevin Stitt · Governor of Oklahoma (2019–present)
- Matt Pinnell · Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma (2019–present)
- Adam Pugh · state senator from the 41st district (2016–present)
- Bill Coleman · state senator from the 10th district (2018–present)
- Brenda Stanley · state senator from the 14th district (2019–present)
- Brent Howard · state senator from the 28th district (2018–present)
- Casey Murdock · state senator from the 27th district (2018–present)
- Darcy Jech · state senator from the 26th district (2014–present)
- Darrell Weaver · state senator from the 24th district (2018–present)
- David Rader · state senator from the 39th district (2016–present)
- Dewayne Pemberton · state senator from the 9th district (2016–2024)
- Frank Simpson · state senator from the 14th district (2010–2022)
- Greg McCortney · state senator from the 13th district (2016–2024)
- Greg Treat · President pro tempore of the Oklahoma Senate and state senator from the 47th district (2011–2024)
- Jim Inhofe · U.S. Senator from Oklahoma (1994–2023)
- John Haste · state senator from the 36th district (2018–present)
- John Montgomery · state senator from the 32nd district (2018–2023)
- Julie Daniels · state senator from the 29th district (2016–present)
- Kim David · state senator from the 18th district (2010–2022)
- Mark Allen · state senator from the 4th district (2010–2022)
- Marty Quinn · state senator from the 2nd district (2014–2022)
- Micheal Bergstrom · state senator from the 1st district (2016–present)
- Mike Lee · U.S. Senator from Utah (2011–present)
- Paul Rosino · state senator from the 45th district (2017–present)
- Roger Thompson · state senator from the 8th district (2014–2018)
- Roland Pederson · state senator from the 19th district (2016–present)
- Shane Jett · state senator from the 17th district (2021–present)
- Ted Cruz · U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)
- Tim Scott · U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)
- Tom J. Dugger · state senator from the 21st district (2016–2024)
- Warren Hamilton · Oklahoma State Senator from the 7th district (2021–present)
- Wendy Rogers · Arizona State Senator from the 6th district (2021–present)
- Sebastian Gorka · former Deputy Assistant to the President for the Trump administration (2017)
- Anthony Moore · state representative for the 57th district (2020–present)
- Avery Frix · state representative for the 13th district (2016–2022)
- Brad Boles · state representative for the 51st district (2018–present)
- Carl Newton · state representative for the 58th district (2016–present)
- Chad Caldwell · state representative for the 40th district (2014–present)
- Chris Kannady · state representative for the 91st district (2014–present)
- Daniel Pae · state representative for the 62nd district (2018–present)
- Danny Sterling · state representative for the 27th district (2018–present)
- Dell Kerbs · state representative for the 26th district (2016–present)
- Dustin Roberts · state representative for the 21st district (2011–2022)
- Eddy Dempsey · state representative for the 1st district (2021–present)
- Frank Lucas · U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district (1994–present)
- Garry Mize · state representative for the 31st district (2018–2022)
- Gerrid Kendrix · state representative for the 52nd district (2021–present)
- Jadine Nollan · state representative for the 66th district (2011–2022)
- Jeff Boatman · state representative for the 67th district (2018–2024)
- Jim Bridenstine · former U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district (2013–2018) and 13th Administrator of NASA (2018–2021)
- John R. Bennett · chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party (2021–2022) and former state representative for the 2nd district (2011–2019)
- Jon Echols · state representative for the 90th district (2012–2024)
- Josh West · state representative for the 5th district (2017–present)
- Judd Strom · state representative for the 10th district (2018–present)
- Justin Humphrey · state representative for the 19th district (2016–present)
- Kenton Patzkowsky · state representative for the 61st district (2018–present)
- Kyle Hilbert · state representative for the 29th district (2016–present)
- Logan Phillips · state representative for the 24th district (2018–2022)
- Marilyn Stark · state representative for the 100th district (2018–present)
- Marjorie Dannenfelser · President of the Susan B. Anthony List (2006–present)
- Mark Lawson · state representative for the 30th district (2016–present)
- Mark Lepak · state representative for the 9th district (2014–present)
- Mark McBride · state representative for the 53rd district (2012–2024)
- Mark McCloskey · 2022 U.S. Senate candidate in the Missouri Republican primary and subject of the St. Louis gun-toting controversy
- Markwayne Mullin · U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district (2013–2023)
- Mike Dobrinski · state representative for the 59th district (2020–present)
- Mike Osburn · state representative for the 81st district (2016–present)
- Nicole Miller · state representative for the 82nd district (2019–present)
- Preston Stinson · state representative for the 96th district (2021–present)
- Rhonda Baker · state representative for the 60th district (2016–2024)
- Robert Manger · state representative for the 101st district (2018–present)
- Rudy Giuliani · 107th mayor of New York City (1994–2001)
- Ryan Martinez · state representative for the 39th district (2016–2023)
- Scott Fetgatter · state representative for the 16th district (2016–present)
- Sheila Dills · state representative for the 69th district (2018–2022)
- Stan May · state representative for the 80th district (2018–present)
- Stephanie Bice · U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district (2021–present)
- Tammy Townley · state representative for the 48th district (2018–present)
- Tammy West · state representative for the 84th district (2016–present)
- Terry O'Donnell · state representative for the 23rd district (2013–2024)
- Todd Russ · state representative for the 55th district (2010–2022)
- Tom Cole · U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district (2003–present)
- Toni Hasenbeck · state representative for the 65th district (2018–present)
- Trey Caldwell · state representative for the 63rd district (2019–present)
- Ty Burns · state representative for the 35th district (2018–2025)
Other20
Other · 20
- Andrew Brunson · pastor
- Bob Anthony · Oklahoma Corporate Commissioner (1989–2025)
- Cindy Byrd · Oklahoma State Auditor and Inspector (2019–present)
- Conservative Political Action Conference
- Dana Murphy · Oklahoma Corporate Commissioner (2009–2023)
- Glen Mulready · Oklahoma Insurance Commissioner (2019–present)
- Greg Locke · pastor and COVID-19 misinformation conspiracy theorist
- James Dobson · founder and former head of Focus on the Family (1977–2010)
- Joy Hofmeister · Oklahoma State Superintendent (2015–2023) (Democrat)
- Lin Wood · attorney and conspiracy theorist
- Michael Flynn · 25th United States National Security Advisor (2017) and convicted felon (Democrat)
- Mike Lindell · conspiracy theorist and My Pillow founder
- Oklahoma Farm Bureau
- Pro-Israel America
- Republicans for National Renewal
- Roger Stone · conservative political consultant, lobbyist, and long-time Donald Trump ally
- Thomas P. Stafford · astronaut
- Todd Hiett · Oklahoma Corporate Commissioner (2015–present)
- Tulsa Beacon
- anti-vaccination · nd Parental Rights, an anti-vaccination group
Organizations13
Organizations · 13
- Cimarron County · Republican Party
- Family Policy Alliance
- Family Research Council · Action PAC
- International Franchise Association
- Leslie Osborn · Oklahoma Labor Commissioner (2019–present)
- Logan County · Republican Party
- Matt Schlapp · Chairman of the American Conservative Union
- National Border Patrol Council · United States Border Patrol Union
- National Federation of Independent Business
- National Rifle Association - Political Victory Fund
- National Right to Life Committee
- Oklahoma County · ahoma County Republican Party Chairman
- Susan B. Anthony List · an anti-abortion PAC
DMadison Horn0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-31James LankfordS4OK00232 ↗
Receipts
$5.9M
Disburse
$4.7M
Cash on hand
$2.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$27.9K
Securities & investment · $27.9K
- Blackstone · $14.5K
- Apollo Global Management · $13.3K
Individuals $27.9K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$13.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $13.0K
- Lanier Law Firm · $13.0K
Individuals $13.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INDIAN TRIBE$55.7K
HOUSEWIFE$23.7K
BLACKSTONE$14.5K
LHC GROUP$13.4K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$13.3K
Madison Horn
Receipts
$372.1K
Disburse
$371.9K
Cash on hand
$164.67
Debts
$19.6K
Top industries
Education$5.8K
Education · $5.8K
- Union Public Schools · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$2.9K
Computers / electronics · $2.9K
- Microsoft · $2.9K
Individuals $2.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
UNION PUBLIC SCHOOLS$5.8K
PALO ALTO NETWORKS$4.9K
US ATTY OFFICE$3.5K
MICROSOFT$2.9K
LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC$2.9K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$375.9K
D side
$24.4K · 6%
R side
$351.5K · 94%
Top spender
DEFEND OKLAHOMA VALUES
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND OKLAHOMA VALUES super pac · boosts R
| R | $246.0K | 65% | for James Lankford |
| AMERICAN ENERGY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $104.0K | 28% | for James Lankford |
| DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $24.4K | 6% | against James Lankford |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $1.5K | 0% | for James Lankford |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 18
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Jan 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 2
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified10 / 19deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-31
Endorsements120 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks