Races · Senate · 2022 · Ohio Senate · class III · open seat
Tim Ryan vs JD Vance Likely R R +11.6 forecast · 78 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probability poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
3% Ryan (D)
97% Vance (R)
Win probability
Tim Ryan 3% (D)
JD Vance 97% (R)
Model poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15 R+5 TIED D+5 D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimate R +11.6
80% CI R+23.6 → D+0.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +11.6 · 80% CI R+23.6 → D+0.4
Actual result R+6.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Momentum
Now —
Window 53 points
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now 0.0%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
Now —
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now —
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Where this race stands
Lean R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R .
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.6 (10th pctile) to tied (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-r
D Timothy John Ryan is an American politician who represented Ohio in the United States House of Representatives from 2003 to 2023. A member o…
3%win JD Vance
Politician author
97%win Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +11.6
80% CI: R +23.6 → D +0.4 · win prob 3%
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used 78 Days to election passed Actual result R+6.1 Residual σ 6.00pt Generated 7/1/2026
All polls · 78 results Date Pollster · trust signals n · pop Lean Bias · track vs raters D · R Nov 6, 22 Civiqs 716 · LV D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 46 · 51 Nov 5, 22 Research Co. +1 450 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.4 50 tracked -0.7 aligned 44 · 52 Nov 5, 22 Targoz Market Research 505 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.7 12 tracked +4.3 noisy 45 · 52 Nov 5, 22 Civiqs 716 · unknown D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 46 Nov 4, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,123 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 44 · 54 Nov 4, 22 Data for Progress +1 1,413 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 · 55 Nov 4, 22 Research Co. 450 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.4 50 tracked -0.7 aligned 46 Nov 3, 22 Trafalgar Group 1,123 · unknown R-LEAN R +2.1 6 tracked -4.1 r lean 44 Nov 3, 22 Data for Progress 1,413 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 Nov 3, 22 Targoz Market Research 505 · unknown NEUTRAL R +1.7 12 tracked +4.3 noisy 45 Nov 2, 22 Cygnal 1,498 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 43 · 49 Nov 1, 22 Remington Research Group +1 1,125 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.2 11 tracked +1.6 aligned 43 · 48 Nov 1, 22 Cygnal 1,498 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 43 Oct 31, 22 Emerson College +1 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 43 · 51 Oct 31, 22 Cygnal +1 1,520 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 · 49 Oct 31, 22 Remington Research Group 1,125 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.2 11 tracked +1.6 aligned 43 Oct 30, 22 Emerson College 1,000 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 Oct 29, 22 Cygnal +1 1,510 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 · 48 Oct 27, 22 Cygnal +1 1,776 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 43 · 48 Oct 27, 22 Cygnal 1,510 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 Oct 25, 22 Cygnal +1 1,817 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 · 49 Oct 24, 22 Center Street PAC 508 · unknown D-LEAN — — 47 Oct 23, 22 Cygnal +1 1,886 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 · 48 Oct 22, 22 Baldwin Wallace University +2 1,068 · LV NEUTRAL D +8.5 4 tracked +5.3 d lean 50 · 46 Oct 21, 22 Cygnal +1 1,547 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 43 · 47 Oct 21, 22 Cygnal 1,886 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 Oct 21, 22 Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute 1,068 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 50 Oct 19, 22 Marist College +1 1,141 · RV D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 45 · 46 Oct 19, 22 Cygnal +1 1,540 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 · 47 Oct 18, 22 Siena College +1 644 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 15 tracked +1.2 aligned 46 · 46 Oct 18, 22 Marist College 1,141 · unknown D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 45 Oct 17, 22 Cygnal 1,438 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 43 · 47 Oct 15, 22 Cygnal 1,438 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 43 Oct 15, 22 Siena College 644 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.7 15 tracked +1.2 aligned 46 Oct 15, 22 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 568 · unknown D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 43 Oct 14, 22 Ohio Northern University/Lucid 668 · LV NEUTRAL — — 43 · 41 Oct 14, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 · 47 Oct 12, 22 Suffolk University 500 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 Oct 12, 22 Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy 668 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 43 Oct 11, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,081 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 44 · 47 Oct 11, 22 Data for Progress +1 1,016 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 46 · 49 Oct 10, 22 Trafalgar Group 1,081 · unknown R-LEAN R +2.1 6 tracked -4.1 r lean 44 Oct 8, 22 Data for Progress 1,016 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 46 Oct 7, 22 Cygnal 640 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 · 46 Oct 6, 22 Emerson College +1 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 · 46 Oct 6, 22 Cygnal 640 · unknown NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 44 Oct 5, 22 Emerson College 1,000 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 Oct 2, 22 Kurt Jetta +1 950 · RV NEUTRAL — +10.4 d lean 43 · 35 Oct 1, 22 Center Street PAC 528 · unknown D-LEAN — — 49 Sep 21, 22 Siena College +1 642 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 15 tracked +1.2 aligned 46 · 43 Sep 19, 22 Siena College 642 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.7 15 tracked +1.2 aligned 46 Sep 14, 22 Baldwin Wallace University +2 855 · LV NEUTRAL D +8.5 4 tracked +5.3 d lean 48 · 45 Sep 14, 22 Marist College +1 1,200 · RV D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 45 · 46 Sep 13, 22 Marist College 1,200 · unknown D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 45 Sep 13, 22 Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute 855 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 48 Sep 12, 22 Emerson College +2 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 40 · 44 Sep 12, 22 Civiqs 780 · LV D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 45 · 48 Sep 11, 22 Civiqs 780 · unknown D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 45 Sep 11, 22 Emerson College 1,000 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 40 Sep 10, 22 Fallon Research 600 · RV NEUTRAL — — 46 · 43 Sep 7, 22 Fallon Research & Communications 600 · unknown NEUTRAL — — 46 Sep 6, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 47 · 46 Sep 6, 22 Echelon Insights +1 831 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.3 6 tracked +3.3 noisy 45 · 39 Aug 22, 22 Impact Research +1 800 · LV D-LEAN — +10.7 d lean 50 · 47 Aug 18, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,087 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 45 · 50 Aug 15, 22 Emerson College +1 925 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 42 · 45 Aug 2, 22 Kurt Jetta +1 1,180 · A NEUTRAL — +10.4 d lean 42 · 32 Jul 27, 22 Impact Research +2 800 · LV D-LEAN — +10.7 d lean 48 · 45 Jul 23, 22 PEM Management Corporation +1 300 · LV R-LEAN — — 44 · 38 Jul 9, 22 Grow Progress +1 2,032 · RV D-LEAN — — 46 · 41 Jul 2, 22 Kurt Jetta +1 1,199 · A NEUTRAL — +10.4 d lean 41 · 36 Jun 29, 22 Impact Research +1 816 · LV D-LEAN — +10.7 d lean 48 · 46 Jun 2, 22 Grow Progress +1 2,018 · RV D-LEAN — — 44 · 41 May 23, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 39 · 42 May 12, 22 Momentive 1,174 · A NEUTRAL — — 37 · 37 Apr 28, 22 Grow Progress +1 2,014 · RV D-LEAN — — 43 · 41 Aug 23, 21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,200 · RV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 36 · 33 Mar 18, 21 Public Policy Polling 700 · unknown NEUTRAL D +0.9 104 tracked +2.4 noisy 37 · 39
Endorsements · 0 total Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet D Tim Ryan 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
R JD Vance 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REP J.D. Vance 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-28 Top industries
Securities & investment $20.3K
Securities & investment · $20.3K
Mining $13.6K
Mining · $13.6K
Benson Mineral Group · $13.6K Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS $493.5K
ENTREPRENEUR $112.6K
BLACKSTONE $20.3K
KIMBLE COMPANIES $17.4K
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP $17.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports Top spender
SAVE AMERICA FUND
For / against split
For Ryan $1.0M
Against Vance $8.0M
Against Ryan $103.5K
For Vance $7.5M
Spender Side Amount Share Target SAVE AMERICA FUND super pac · boosts D
Spent · $6.2M Direction · against JD Vance Share of IE · 37% D $6.2M 37% against JD Vance PA LAWYER FUND super pac · boosts R
Spent · $5.0M Direction · for JD Vance Share of IE · 30% R $5.0M 30% for JD Vance REPUBLICAN ACCOUNTABILITY PAC super pac · boosts D
Spent · $1.8M Direction · against JD Vance Share of IE · 11% D $1.8M 11% against JD Vance CATHOLICVOTE.ORG pac · boosts R
Spent · $1.6M Direction · for JD Vance Share of IE · 10% R $1.6M 10% for JD Vance MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN INC. super pac · boosts R
Spent · $528.4K Direction · for JD Vance Share of IE · 3% R $528.4K 3% for JD Vance LET AMERICA VOTE PAC pac · boosts D
Spent · $314.8K Direction · for Tim Ryan Share of IE · 2% D $314.8K 2% for Tim Ryan ONE FOR ALL COMMITTEE super pac · boosts D
Spent · $186.7K Direction · for Tim Ryan Share of IE · 1% D $186.7K 1% for Tim Ryan END CITIZENS UNITED pac · boosts D
Spent · $86.3K Direction · for Tim Ryan Share of IE · 1% D $86.3K 1% for Tim Ryan GUN RIGHTS AMERICA super pac · boosts R
Spent · $81.6K Direction · against Tim Ryan Share of IE · 0% R $81.6K 0% against Tim Ryan
Editorial ratings · 6 raters Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al. Lean R 3 Lean R · 3 raters
The Cook Political Report · Oct 3 Inside Elections · Oct 6 Sabato's Crystal Ball · Aug 30 Likely R 3 Likely R · 3 raters
DDHQ · Nov 4 The Economist · Nov 4 538 · Oct 6 The Cook Political Report
Lean R Oct 3
The Economist
Likely R Nov 4
Inside Elections
Lean R Oct 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R Aug 30
Demographic crosstabs age · education · race · gender No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026 Likely R model May 11, 2026 · change
Moved to Likely R
Model margin R +5.8
Verification trail
Polls verified 48 / 78deterministic
Polls flagged 1needs review
Markets ingested 0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings syncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-28
Endorsements —nothing to sync
News coverage < 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks