Races · Senate · 2022 · New York
Senate · class III · open seat
Chuck Schumer vs Joe Pinion
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+9) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+26.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+14.0 (10th pctile) to D+38.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +26.0
80% CI: D +14.0 → D +38.0 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 33 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+14.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 33 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Research Co.+1For · Research Co. | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 55 · 37 |
| Nov 5 | ActiVote+2For · ActiVote | 279 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.926 tracked | +1.0aligned | 60 · 40 |
| Nov 4 | Research Co. | 450 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 39 |
| Oct 30 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 55 · 36 |
| Oct 30 | The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group | 1,198 · LV | R-LEAN | R +3.553 tracked | -2.6r lean | 51 · 40 |
| Oct 29 | Emerson College | 1,000 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 39 |
| Oct 28 | KAConsultingFor · Politico | 501 · LV | R-LEAN | R +3.68 tracked | -2.3r lean | 50 · 38 |
| Oct 28 | Trafalgar Group | 1,198 · unknown | R-LEAN | R +2.16 tracked | -4.1r lean | 40 |
| Oct 27 | Data for Progress+1 | 818 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.151 tracked | +0.8aligned | 56 · 39 |
| Oct 27 | KAConsulting | 501 · unknown | R-LEAN | R +3.68 tracked | -2.3r lean | 38 |
Endorsements · 9 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet7
2
Endorsements tracked
Chuck Schumer7 · 78%
Joe Pinion2 · 22%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DChuck Schumer7 endorsers
Most notable · Letitia James · Attorney General of New York (2019–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Civil Service Employees Association
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Population Connection Action Fund
- Public Employees Federation
Other2
Other · 2
- Jewish Dems
- Pro-Israel America
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Letitia James · Attorney General of New York (2019–present)
RJoe Pinion2 endorsers
Most notable · Elise Stefanik · U.S. Representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present) and Chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–2025)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Elise Stefanik · U.S. Representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present) and Chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–2025)
Other1
Other · 1
- New York Young Republican Club
DEMCharles E. Schumer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-07Chuck SchumerS8NY00082 ↗
Receipts
$37.9M
Disburse
$38.3M
Cash on hand
$9.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$194.7K
Securities & investment · $194.7K
- Blackstone · $194.7K
Individuals $194.7K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$145.9K
Electric utilities · $145.9K
- Nextera Energy · $145.9K
Individuals $145.9K · PACs $0
Insurance$104.6K
Insurance · $104.6K
- Unitedhealth Group · $104.6K
Individuals $104.6K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$97.4K
Computers / electronics · $97.4K
- Microsoft · $97.4K
Individuals $97.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$194.7K
NEXTERA ENERGY$145.9K
NEWMARK$144.8K
PAUL WEISS RIFKIND WHARTON & GARRISON$131.9K
KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P.$124.7K
Joe Pinion
Receipts
$592.7K
Disburse
$561.1K
Cash on hand
$31.6K
Debts
$78.6K
Top industries
Securities & investment$5.8K
Securities & investment · $5.8K
- Goldman Sachs · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
FREELANCE$11.6K
AWBURY$5.8K
GOLDMAN SACHS$5.8K
MORNINGSIDE$5.8K
JOSEPH RATNER COMPANY INC$5.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.2M
D side
$1.0M · 87%
R side
$144.5K · 13%
Top spender
PA LAWYER FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA LAWYER FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0M | 87% | for Chuck Schumer |
| DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $73.3K | 6% | against Chuck Schumer |
| FRONTIERS OF FREEDOM ACTION, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $70.7K | 6% | against Chuck Schumer |
| NEW YORK PROGRESSIVE, INC. super pac · boosts D
| D | $10.0K | 1% | for Chuck Schumer |
| THE PEOPLE'S CAMPAIGN super pac · boosts D
| D | $800 | 0% | for Chuck Schumer |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 18
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Jan 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 2
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified19 / 33deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-07
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks