| 11/6/2022 | Research Co. | 1.01 | —(D+1.5) | 450 | — | LV | 🟡1281d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chuck Schumer 55.0 · Joe Pinion 37.0 | pollarch |
| 11/6/2022 | ActiVote | 1.01 | L(D+3.9) | 279 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.9pt🟡n=279+4- 🟠
historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
n=279 Sample size of 279 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.9pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. Notes: field window 90d - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chuck Schumer 60.0 · Joe Pinion 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡1287d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chuck Schumer 55.0 · Joe Pinion 36.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1198 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1287d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chuck Schumer 51.0 · Joe Pinion 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/29/2022 | KAConsulting | 1.08 | R(R+3.6) | 501 | — | LV | 🟡1289d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1289d old Poll was fielded 1289 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Chuck Schumer 50.0 · Joe Pinion 38.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2022 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 818 | — | LV | 🟡1290d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Chuck Schumer 56.0 · Joe Pinion 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2022 | Long Island University | 0.27 | —(D+14.8) | 1001 | — | A | 🟠weight 0.27🟡3 scored polls+3- 🟠
weight 0.27 Aggregation weight is 0.27 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Chuck Schumer 54.0 · Joe Pinion 27.0 | pollarch |
| 10/25/2022 | Civiqs | 0.99 | L(D+2.5) | 593 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.5pt🟡1293d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.5pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt. - 🟡
1293d old Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Chuck Schumer 56.0 · Joe Pinion 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/24/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡1294d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1294d old Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chuck Schumer 51.0 · Joe Pinion 36.0 | pollarch |
| 10/18/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 702 | — | LV | 🟡1300d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1300d old Poll was fielded 1300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chuck Schumer 52.0 · Joe Pinion 38.0 | pollarch |
| 10/16/2022 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1617 | — | LV | 🟡1302d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1302d old Poll was fielded 1302 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,617 Sample size of 1,617 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chuck Schumer 54.0 · Joe Pinion 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/14/2022 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 707 | — | LV | 🟡1304d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1304d old Poll was fielded 1304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Chuck Schumer 57.0 · Joe Pinion 37.0 | pollarch |
| 10/6/2022 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 900 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡1312d old+3- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
1312d old Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Chuck Schumer 52.0 · Joe Pinion 39.0 | pollarch |
| 9/25/2022 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 655 | — | LV | 🟡1323d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1323d old Poll was fielded 1323 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Chuck Schumer 55.0 · Joe Pinion 36.0 | pollarch |
| 9/6/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡1342d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1342d old Poll was fielded 1342 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chuck Schumer 55.0 · Joe Pinion 31.0 | pollarch |
| 8/9/2022 | McLaughlin & Associates | 1.00 | — | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1370d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1370d old Poll was fielded 1370 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: New York Post Commissioned by New York Post, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Chuck Schumer 51.0 · Joe Pinion 36.0 | pollarch |
| 8/9/2022 | McLaughlin & Associates | 1.00 | — | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1370d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1370d old Poll was fielded 1370 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: New York Post Commissioned by New York Post, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Chuck Schumer 42.0 | pollarch |
| 7/28/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡1382d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1382d old Poll was fielded 1382 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Chuck Schumer 53.0 · Joe Pinion 31.0 | pollarch |
| 7/28/2022 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 806 | — | LV | 🟡1382d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1382d old Poll was fielded 1382 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Chuck Schumer 56.0 · Joe Pinion 35.0 | pollarch |