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Races · Senate · 2022 · North Carolina
Senate · class III · open seat

Cheri Beasley vs Ted Budd

← Missouri SenateNorth Dakota Senate →
Likely RR +6.9 forecast· 58 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
12% Beasley (D)
88% Budd (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +6.9 · 80% CI R+18.9 → D+5.1
Actual result R+3.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 88% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+6.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+18.9 (10th pctile) to D+5.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 88% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +6.9
80% CI: R +18.9 → D +5.1 · win prob 12%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used58
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+3.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

303540455055BUDD 49.2BEASLEY 44.9NOV '21MAY '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 58 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 5, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,098 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean45 · 51
Nov 5, 22Data for Progress+11,322 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 51
Nov 4, 22Trafalgar Group1,098 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean45 · 51
Nov 3, 22Data for Progress1,322 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 51
Nov 2, 22East Carolina University1,183 · LVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned47 · 52
Nov 2, 22ActiVote+2For · ActiVote250 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned47 · 48
Nov 1, 22Remington Research Group+11,140 · LVNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned43 · 50
Nov 1, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs674 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean49 · 49
Nov 1, 22East Carolina University Center for Survey Research1,183 · unknownNEUTRAL——47 · 52
Oct 31, 22Remington Research Group1,140 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned43 · 50
Oct 30, 22Civiqs674 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean49 · 49
Oct 29, 22Meredith College724 · RVNEUTRAL——43 · 44
Oct 28, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 50
Oct 28, 22Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies724 · unknownNEUTRAL——43 · 44
Oct 27, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 51
Oct 21, 22Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 47
Oct 20, 22Cygnal600 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 47
Oct 19, 22Marist College+1For · Marist College1,130 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned44 · 44
Oct 18, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,081 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean44 · 48
Oct 18, 22Marist College1,130 · unknownD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned44 · 44
Oct 17, 22Trafalgar Group1,081 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean44 · 48
Oct 12, 22East Carolina University902 · LVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned44 · 50
Oct 12, 22Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights1,009 · LVR-LEANR +4.59 tracked-0.6aligned44 · 49
Oct 11, 22East Carolina University Center for Survey Research902 · unknownNEUTRAL——44 · 50
Oct 9, 22Wick1,009 · unknownNEUTRAL——44 · 49
Oct 7, 22Public Policy Polling+1606 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy45 · 46
Oct 6, 22Public Policy Polling606 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy45 · 46
Oct 1, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA677 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned42 · 43
Sep 29, 22SurveyUSA677 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned42 · 43
Sep 25, 22Cygnal650 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned44 · 44
Sep 24, 22Cygnal650 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned44 · 44
Sep 22, 22Meredith CollegeFor · Meredith College731 · LVNEUTRAL——41 · 41
Sep 21, 22Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies731 · unknownNEUTRAL——41 · 41
Sep 19, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs586 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean49 · 48
Sep 19, 22Global Strategy Group800 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean46 · 46
Sep 18, 22Civiqs586 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean49 · 48
Sep 18, 22ActiVote+1250 · unknownD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned47 · 48
Sep 15, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned43 · 46
Sep 15, 22Global Strategy Group800 · unknownNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean46 · 46
Sep 14, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned43 · 46
Sep 9, 22East Carolina University1,020 · LVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned46 · 49
Sep 8, 22East Carolina University Center for Survey Research1,020 · unknownNEUTRAL——46 · 49
Sep 3, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,079 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean44 · 47
Aug 29, 22Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling601 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy42 · 41
Aug 14, 22Cygnal615 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned42 · 42
Aug 5, 22Blueprint Polling656 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.4d lean46 · 42
Jul 23, 22PEM Management Corporation+1300 · LVR-LEAN——43 · 40
Jun 30, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,068 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean45 · 48
Jun 18, 22Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned40 · 45
Jun 11, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA650 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned44 · 40
May 21, 22Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned42 · 44
May 19, 22East Carolina University635 · RVNEUTRALD +1.88 tracked-0.5aligned42 · 49
May 15, 22Meeting Street Insights500 · RVNEUTRAL——45 · 46
May 8, 22Emerson College+11,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned41 · 48
May 3, 22Global Strategy Group800 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean45 · 45
Apr 3, 22Emerson College+11,047 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned43 · 50
Mar 30, 22CygnalFor · Cygnal513 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 45
Nov 9, 21Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies777 · RVD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned36 · 37
· 58 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 29 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
29Beasley · 100%
DCheri Beasley29 endorsers
Most notable · Roy Cooper · governor of North Carolina (2017–2025), 49th attorney general of North Carolina (2001–2017), majority leader of the North Carolina Senate (1997–2001)
Other11
Elected officials9
Federal 5State 3Local 1
Organizations9
RTed Budd0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-29
Ted BuddS2NC00505 ↗
Receipts
$14.9M
Disburse
$15.7M
Cash on hand
$272.2K
Debts
$541.5K
Top industries
Securities & investment$19.9K
Top contributors
RDV CORPORATION$40.6K
SELF EMPLOYED - HOMEMAKER$33.6K
BRIGHTHOUSE FINANCIAL$22.7K
BLACKSTONE$19.9K
RETIRED - NO EMPLOYER$15.7K
Cheri BeasleyS2NC00497 ↗
Receipts
$38.9M
Disburse
$38.9M
Cash on hand
$47.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$252.4K
Internet$59.5K
Computers / electronics$27.2K
Commercial banks$24.5K
Lawyers / law firms$24.4K
Top contributors
DUKE UNIVERSITY$146.9K
UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA$105.5K
GOOGLE$59.5K
MOTLEY RICE, LLC$34.3K
WILMERHALE$33.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$18.9M
D side
$12.3M · 65%
R side
$6.5M · 35%
Top spender
SMP
For / against split
For Beasley $1.5M
Against Budd $10.8M
Against Beasley $540.2K
For Budd $6.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SMPD$9.6M51%against Ted Budd
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$5.6M30%for Ted Budd
AFL-CIO COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION TREASURY FUNDD$379.3K2%against Ted Budd
END CITIZENS UNITEDD$317.2K2%against Ted Budd
BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PACD$312.9K2%for Cheri Beasley
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUNDR$285.0K2%against Cheri Beasley
CARE IN ACTION PACD$278.3K1%for Cheri Beasley
NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTIOND$173.9K1%for Cheri Beasley
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$165.4K1%against Cheri Beasley
AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY DBA THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUSR$151.7K1%for Ted Budd

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt R1
Lean R4
Likely R1
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Feb 24
DDHQ
Lean R
Oct 5
The Economist
Lean R
Sep 6
538
Likely R
Aug 2
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Oct 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Aug 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified37 / 58deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-29
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks