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Races · Senate · 2022 · Missouri
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
Senate · class III · open seat

Trudy Busch Valentine vs Eric Schmitt

← Maryland SenateNorth Carolina Senate →
Safe RR +15.2 forecast· 41 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Valentine (D)
99% Schmitt (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +15.2 · 80% CI R+27.2 → R+3.2
Actual result R+13.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.2 (10th pctile) to R+3.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.2
80% CI: R +27.2 → R +3.2 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used41
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

10152025303540455055SCHMITT 52.7VALENTINE 40.7WOOD 10.5KUNCE 25.9GREITENS 31.1HARTZLER 33.1JUL '22SEP '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 41 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 6, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs746 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean40 · 55
Nov 5, 22Civiqs746 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean40 · 55
Oct 31, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,079 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean42 · 53
Oct 31, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA791 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned41 · 50
Oct 30, 22Trafalgar Group1,079 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean42 · 53
Oct 28, 22SurveyUSA791 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned41 · 50
Oct 27, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned40 · 54
Oct 26, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned40 · 54
Oct 24, 22Remington ResearchFor · Missouri Scout1,011 · LVNEUTRAL——42 · 51
Oct 23, 22Remington Research Group1,011 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned42 · 51
Sep 26, 22Emerson CollegeFor · Emerson Polling1,160 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned38 · 49
Sep 24, 22Emerson College1,160 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned38 · 49
Sep 17, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA670 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned36 · 47
Sep 15, 22SurveyUSA670 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned36 · 47
Aug 24, 22Remington Research1,011 · LVNEUTRAL——40 · 51
Aug 15, 22YouGov/SLU900 · LVNEUTRAL——38 · 49
Jul 26, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA1,591 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned30 · 36
Jul 26, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA1,591 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned26 · 31
Jul 26, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA1,591 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned31 · 31
Jul 26, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA1,591 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned25 · 34
Jul 26, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA1,591 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned31 · 32
Jul 26, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA1,591 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned27 · 37
May 14, 22SurveyUSA+2For · KOAM News Now1,412 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned34 · 47
May 14, 22SurveyUSA+2For · KOAM News Now1,412 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned36 · 42
May 14, 22SurveyUSA+2For · KOAM News Now1,412 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned37 · 43
May 14, 22SurveyUSA+2For · KOAM News Now1,412 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned31 · 45
May 14, 22SurveyUSA+2For · KOAM News Now1,412 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned33 · 44
May 14, 22SurveyUSA+2For · KOAM News Now1,412 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned34 · 46
Apr 27, 22Remington Research986 · LVNEUTRAL——32 · 50
Apr 27, 22Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout986 · LVNEUTRAL——37 · 46
Apr 27, 22Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout986 · LVNEUTRAL——33 · 49
Mar 12, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,075 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean45 · 46
Mar 12, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,075 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean39 · 56
Mar 12, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,075 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean40 · 55
Feb 5, 22Bendixen & Amandi International (SAM)For · STLtoday.com800 · LVNEUTRAL——25 · 27
Dec 16, 21co/efficient1,210 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean26 · 34
Dec 16, 21co/efficient1,210 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean16 · 23
Dec 16, 21co/efficient1,210 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean23 · 28
Nov 17, 21WPA Intelligence600 · LVR-LEAN—-1.2aligned49
Oct 3, 21Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+1600 · LVNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled40 · 47
Oct 3, 21Fabrizio, Lee & Associates+1600 · LVNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled47
· 41 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 6 candidates with no endorsements yet
DTrudy Busch Valentine0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REric Schmitt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJohn Wood0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLucas Kunce0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REric Greitens0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RVicky Hartzler0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-29
Eric GreitensS2MO00536 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$12.8K
Debts
$116.5K
Top industries
Internet$5.8K
Top contributors
THE DURHAM COMPANY$17.4K
MARCK INDUSTRIES INC.$11.6K
THE MARCUS FOUNDATION$11.6K
THE SMASH CO$11.6K
CARSHIELD$11.6K
Eric SchmittS2MO00544 ↗
Receipts
$6.6M
Disburse
$6.4M
Cash on hand
$132.1K
Debts
$186.0K
Top industries
Real estate$11.6K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$63.6K
HERZOG$46.4K
BURNS MCDONNELL$30.3K
PRESIDENT$23.6K
CEO$22.0K
John WoodS2MO00734 ↗
Receipts
$317.5K
Disburse
$298.2K
Cash on hand
$19.4K
Debts
$100.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$32.3K
Publishing / news$11.6K
Education$5.8K
Internet$2.9K
Top contributors
HUGHES HUBBARD & REED LLP$17.3K
POST HOLDINGS, INC$11.6K
DOWD BENNETT LLP$6.3K
SUMMIT DISTRIBUTING$5.8K
THIRD MOUNTAIN COACHING$5.8K
Vicky HartzlerS2MO00593 ↗
Receipts
$3.8M
Disburse
$4.5M
Cash on hand
$1.5K
Debts
$1.0K
Top industries
Health professionals$13.6K
Top contributors
NA$154.0K
NUETERRA CAPITAL$23.2K
VETERANS UNITED HOME LOANS$18.9K
PRODUCTION PRODUCTS$17.4K
MERCY HOSPITAL$13.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$34.9M
D side
$25.6M · 73%
R side
$9.3M · 27%
Top spender
SHOW ME VALUES PAC
For / against split
For Valentine $24.5K
Against Greitens $25.6M
Against Valentine $1.8M
For Greitens $7.4M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SHOW ME VALUES PACD$25.3M73%against Eric Greitens
SAVE MISSOURI VALUESR$10.0M29%for Eric Schmitt
MISSOURI FIRST ACTION, INC.R$7.4M21%for Eric Greitens
MISSOURI STANDS UNITEDI$7.1M20%for John Wood
CRYPTO INNOVATIONR$1.1M3%for Eric Schmitt
OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.R$1.0M3%for Eric Schmitt
SECURE OUR FREEDOM ACTION FUNDR$908.0K3%for Vicky Hartzler
GOA VICTORY FUNDR$892.5K3%for Eric Schmitt
SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDR$739.0K2%for Eric Schmitt
MISSOURI VOICES ACTION FUNDR$407.8K1%against Trudy Busch Valentine

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 6
DDHQ
Safe R
Nov 6
The Economist
Safe R
Nov 6
538
Safe R
Nov 6
Inside Elections
Safe R
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified30 / 41deterministic
Polls flagged4needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-29
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks