| 11/7/2022 | Civiqs | 0.99 | L(D+2.5) | 746 | — | LV | 🟡bias D+2.5pt🟡1280d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.5pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt. - 🟡
1280d old Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 55.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 40.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1079 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1286d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 53.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 42.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 791 | — | LV | 🟡1286d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Schmitt 50.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡1290d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Eric Schmitt 54.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/25/2022 | Remington Research | 1.00 | — | 1011 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1293d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1293d old Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 51.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 42.0 | pollarch |
| 9/27/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1160 | — | unknown | 🟡1321d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1321d old Poll was fielded 1321 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Eric Schmitt 49.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 38.0 | pollarch |
| 9/18/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 670 | — | LV | 🟡1330d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1330d old Poll was fielded 1330 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Schmitt 47.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 36.0 | pollarch |
| 8/25/2022 | Remington Research | 1.00 | — | 1011 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1354d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1354d old Poll was fielded 1354 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 51.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 40.0 | pollarch |
| 8/16/2022 | YouGov/SLU | 1.00 | — | 900 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1363d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1363d old Poll was fielded 1363 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 49.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 38.0 | pollarch |
| 7/27/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1591 | — | LV | 🟡1383d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1383d old Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,591 Sample size of 1,591 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Schmitt 36.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 30.0 · John Wood 9.0 | pollarch |
| 7/27/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1591 | — | LV | 🟡1383d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1383d old Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,591 Sample size of 1,591 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Greitens 31.0 · Lucas Kunce 26.0 · John Wood 13.0 | pollarch |
| 7/27/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1591 | — | LV | 🟡1383d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1383d old Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,591 Sample size of 1,591 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Greitens 31.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 31.0 · John Wood 10.0 | pollarch |
| 7/27/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1591 | — | LV | 🟡1383d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1383d old Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,591 Sample size of 1,591 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Vicky Hartzler 34.0 · Lucas Kunce 25.0 · John Wood 12.0 | pollarch |
| 7/27/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1591 | — | LV | 🟡1383d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1383d old Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,591 Sample size of 1,591 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Vicky Hartzler 32.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 31.0 · John Wood 9.0 | pollarch |
| 7/27/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1591 | — | LV | 🟡1383d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1383d old Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
n=1,591 Sample size of 1,591 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Schmitt 37.0 · Lucas Kunce 27.0 · John Wood 10.0 | pollarch |
| 5/15/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1412 | — | LV | 🟡1456d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1456d old Poll was fielded 1456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Schmitt 47.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 34.0 | pollarch |
| 5/15/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1412 | — | LV | 🟡1456d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1456d old Poll was fielded 1456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Greitens 42.0 · Lucas Kunce 36.0 | pollarch |
| 5/15/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1412 | — | LV | 🟡1456d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1456d old Poll was fielded 1456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Greitens 43.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 37.0 | pollarch |
| 5/15/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1412 | — | LV | 🟡1456d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1456d old Poll was fielded 1456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Vicky Hartzler 45.0 · Lucas Kunce 31.0 | pollarch |
| 5/15/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1412 | — | LV | 🟡1456d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1456d old Poll was fielded 1456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Vicky Hartzler 44.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 33.0 | pollarch |
| 5/15/2022 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1412 | — | LV | 🟡1456d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1456d old Poll was fielded 1456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Eric Schmitt 46.0 · Lucas Kunce 34.0 | pollarch |
| 4/28/2022 | Remington Research | 1.00 | — | 986 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1473d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1473d old Poll was fielded 1473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 50.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 32.0 | pollarch |
| 4/28/2022 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 986 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1473d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1473d old Poll was fielded 1473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 46.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 37.0 | pollarch |
| 4/28/2022 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 986 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1473d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1473d old Poll was fielded 1473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Vicky Hartzler 49.0 · Trudy Busch Valentine 33.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1075 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1519d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1519d old Poll was fielded 1519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 46.0 · Lucas Kunce 45.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1075 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1519d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1519d old Poll was fielded 1519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Vicky Hartzler 56.0 · Lucas Kunce 39.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1075 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1519d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1519d old Poll was fielded 1519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 55.0 · Lucas Kunce 40.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1075 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1519d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1519d old Poll was fielded 1519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 45.0 · Scott Sifton 45.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1075 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1519d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1519d old Poll was fielded 1519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Vicky Hartzler 57.0 · Scott Sifton 37.0 | pollarch |
| 3/13/2022 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1075 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias R+3.4pt🟡1519d old+2- 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1519d old Poll was fielded 1519 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 54.0 · Scott Sifton 40.0 | pollarch |
| 2/6/2022 | Bendixen & Amandi International (SAM) | 1.00 | — | 800 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡no scored polls+2- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 52.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1554d old Poll was fielded 1554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 27.0 · Lucas Kunce 25.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2021 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1210 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 60.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1605d old Poll was fielded 1605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 34.0 · Lucas Kunce 26.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2021 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1210 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 39.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1605d old Poll was fielded 1605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Vicky Hartzler 23.0 · Lucas Kunce 16.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2021 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1210 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 33.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1605d old Poll was fielded 1605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Billy Long 16.0 · Lucas Kunce 17.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2021 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1210 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 51.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1605d old Poll was fielded 1605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 28.0 · Lucas Kunce 23.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2021 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1210 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 65.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1605d old Poll was fielded 1605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 39.0 · Scott Sifton 26.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2021 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1210 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 39.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1605d old Poll was fielded 1605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Vicky Hartzler 22.0 · Scott Sifton 17.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2021 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1210 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 25.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1605d old Poll was fielded 1605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Billy Long 13.0 · Scott Sifton 12.0 | pollarch |
| 12/17/2021 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1210 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 41.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
1605d old Poll was fielded 1605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 23.0 · Scott Sifton 18.0 | pollarch |
| 11/18/2021 | WPA Intelligence | 1.00 | R | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1634d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1634d old Poll was fielded 1634 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 49.0 | pollarch |
| 10/4/2021 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 1.00 | R | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1679d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1679d old Poll was fielded 1679 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 47.0 · Lucas Kunce 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/4/2021 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 1.00 | R | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1679d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1679d old Poll was fielded 1679 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 46.0 · Scott Sifton 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/4/2021 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 1.00 | R | 600 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1679d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1679d old Poll was fielded 1679 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 14 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 47.0 | pollarch |
| 7/15/2021 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 922 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1760d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1760d old Poll was fielded 1760 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 48.0 · Jay Nixon 44.0 | pollarch |
| 4/8/2021 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 936 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1858d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1858d old Poll was fielded 1858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 48.0 · Jay Nixon 44.0 | pollarch |
| 4/8/2021 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 936 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1858d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1858d old Poll was fielded 1858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 49.0 · Scott Sifton 42.0 | pollarch |
| 4/8/2021 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 936 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1858d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1858d old Poll was fielded 1858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 50.0 · Jay Nixon 42.0 | pollarch |
| 4/8/2021 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 936 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1858d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1858d old Poll was fielded 1858 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Schmitt 51.0 · Scott Sifton 39.0 | pollarch |
| 2/18/2021 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 954 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1907d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1907d old Poll was fielded 1907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Eric Greitens 49.0 · Scott Sifton 41.0 | pollarch |
| 2/18/2021 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 954 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1907d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1907d old Poll was fielded 1907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Roy Blunt 50.0 · Scott Sifton 40.0 | pollarch |
| 1/12/2021 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 571 | — | LV | 🟡1944d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1944d old Poll was fielded 1944 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Roy Blunt 45.0 · Jason Kander 44.0 | pollarch |
| 1/7/2021 | Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | 1.00 | — | 980 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1949d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1949d old Poll was fielded 1949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Roy Blunt 52.0 · Scott Sifton 34.0 | pollarch |