Races · Senate · 2022 · MD
Senate · class II · open seat

Chris Van Hollen vs Larry Hogan

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Likely D — · 4 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1336d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 4 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 4 results

4 of 4 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
9/12/2022Goucher College1.00—748—LV
no scored polls1336d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1336d old
    Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Chris Van Hollen 56.0 · Chris Chaffee 33.0pollarch
12/1/2021WPA Intelligence1.00R500—LV
no scored polls1621d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1621d old
    Poll was fielded 1621 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Chris Van Hollen 37.0 · Larry Hogan 49.0pollarch
10/1/2020Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)650—unknown
historical bias D+3.7pt2047d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2047d old
    Poll was fielded 2047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Chris Van Hollen 50.0 · Larry Hogan 34.0pollarch
10/14/2019University of Maryland/Washington Post1.00—819—RV
no scored polls2400d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2400d old
    Poll was fielded 2400 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Washington Post
    Commissioned by The Washington Post, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Chris Van Hollen 42.0 · Larry Hogan 50.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 30 total
Chris Van Hollen (D)
30 endorsements · source
Organizations / unions (19)
  • AFL–CIO — d State and District of Columbia AFL–CIO [ 9 ]
  • American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees — Local 3 [ 6 ]
  • American Federation of Teachers — Maryland [ 8 ]
  • Bend the Arc Jewish Action PAC — [ 14 ]
  • Brady PAC — [ 15 ]
  • Chesapeake Climate Action Network — [ 16 ]
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 17 ]
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 19 ]
  • Humane Society of the United States — Legislative Fund [ 22 ]
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 23 ]
  • Maryland Realtors Political Action Committee — [ 25 ]
  • National Education Association — [ 10 ]
  • National Organization for Women — PAC [ 27 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 28 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 29 ]
  • Population Connection Action Fund — [ 30 ]
  • Service Employees International Union — Local 500 [ 11 ]
  • United Food and Commercial Workers — Local 400 [ 13 ]
  • [ 31 ] — ssive Turnout Project [ 31 ]
Other (11)
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • End Citizens United — [ 18 ]
  • Giffords — [ 20 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 21 ]
  • JStreetPAC — [ 24 ]
  • Let America Vote — [ 18 ]
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 26 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 32 ]
  • UNITE HERE — Local 25 [ 12 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-29
Total IE spending
$66K
For candidates
$66K
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 12/29/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Chris Van Hollen (D)
$66K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$2.2M
Total raised (cycle)
$6.6M
Total spent
$5.7M
Debts
$2K
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Mar 4 — +18.0 —
DDHQ Safe D Jul 20 — +18.0 —
The Economist Safe D Sep 7 — +18.0 —
538 Safe D Jun 30 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Jul 1 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Jun 15 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 45 months ago (9/12/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely D via pvi held 1317d
  • 9/24/2022 Safe D D+23.0 via polls held 75d
  • 7/11/2022 Likely D via pvi