Races · Senate · 2022 · Maryland
Senate · class III · open seat
Chris Van Hollen vs Chris Chaffee
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.7 (10th pctile) to D+39.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +27.7
80% CI: D +15.7 → D +39.7 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+31.7 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | Goucher College | 748 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 56 · 33 |
| Sep 9 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | 748 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | 56 · 33 |
Endorsements · 26 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet26
Endorsements tracked
Chris Van Hollen26 · 100%
Chris Chaffee0 · 0%
Total26
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DChris Van Hollen26 endorsers
Most notable · AFL–CIO · d State and District of Columbia AFL–CIO
Organizations18
Organizations · 18
- AFL–CIO · d State and District of Columbia AFL–CIO
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Local 3
- American Federation of Teachers · Maryland
- Bend the Arc Jewish Action PAC
- Brady PAC
- Chesapeake Climate Action Network
- Council for a Livable World
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Humane Society of the United States · Legislative Fund
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Maryland Realtors Political Action Committee
- National Education Association
- National Organization for Women · PAC
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection Action Fund
- Service Employees International Union · Local 500
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 400
Other8
Other · 8
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- JStreetPAC
- Let America Vote
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- Sierra Club
- UNITE HERE · Local 25
RChris Chaffee0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-29Chris Van HollenS6MD03441 ↗
Receipts
$6.6M
Disburse
$5.7M
Cash on hand
$2.2M
Debts
$2.2K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$23.7K
Lawyers / law firms · $23.7K
- Holland & Knight · $15.8K
- Gallagher, Evelius & Jones LLP · $12.3K
- Gallagher Evelius & Jones LLP · $11.4K
Individuals $23.7K · PACs $0
Health professionals$15.4K
Health professionals · $15.4K
- Ciena Healthcare · $15.4K
Individuals $15.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
LEIDOS$28.8K
PARRY LABS$17.4K
WILMERHALE$17.3K
THEGROUP$16.5K
HOLLAND & KNIGHT$15.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$66.1K
D side
$66.1K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
UNITED WOMEN'S HEAL…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNITED WOMEN'S HEALTH ALLIANCE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $63.7K | 96% | for Chris Van Hollen |
| NEA ADVOCACY FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.9K | 3% | for Chris Van Hollen |
| CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUND pac · boosts D
| D | $504.89 | 1% | for Chris Van Hollen |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Chris Van Hollen |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Jun 30
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 14
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-29
Endorsements26 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks