Races · Senate · 2022 · IN
Senate · class II · open seat

Thomas McDermott Jr. vs Todd Young

← IL Senate KS Senate →
Likely R — · 3 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1280d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/7/2022Civiqs0.99L(D+2.5)707—LV
bias D+2.5pt1280d old+2
  • bias D+2.5pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt.
  • 1280d old
    Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Todd Young 49.0 · Thomas McDermott Jr. 38.0pollarch
9/26/2022ARW Strategies1.00—600—LV
no scored polls1322d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1322d old
    Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Todd Young 39.0 · Thomas McDermott Jr. 37.0 · James Sceniak 6.0pollarch
8/24/2022Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)2111—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt1355d old+5
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1355d old
    Poll was fielded 1355 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Indianapolis Star
    Commissioned by The Indianapolis Star, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • n=2,111
    Sample size of 2,111 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Todd Young 45.0 · Thomas McDermott Jr. 42.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-30
Total IE spending
$625K
For candidates
$625K
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 10/30/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Todd Young (R)
$625K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$3.7M
Total raised (cycle)
$11.0M
Total spent
$9.6M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Thomas McDermott Jr. (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$1.4M
Total spent
$1.4M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
James Sceniak (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$418
Total raised (cycle)
$16K
Total spent
$18K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Mar 4 — -18.0 —
DDHQ Safe R Jul 20 — -18.0 —
The Economist Safe R Sep 7 — -18.0 —
538 Safe R Jul 6 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Apr 1 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Mar 1 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/7/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely R via pvi held 1332d
  • 9/9/2022 Lean R R+3.0 via polls held 60d
  • 7/11/2022 Likely R via pvi