Races · Senate · 2022 · Indiana
Senate · class III · open seat
Thomas McDermott Jr. vs Todd Young
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.4 (10th pctile) to R+4.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.4
80% CI: R +28.4 → R +4.3 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 5 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+20.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | CiviqsFor · Civiqs | 707 · LV | D-LEAN | D +2.522 tracked | +4.0d lean | 38 · 49 |
| Nov 5 | Civiqs | 707 · unknown | D-LEAN | D +2.522 tracked | +4.0d lean | 49 |
| Sep 25 | ARW StrategiesFor · IndyPolitics.Org | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 37 · 39 |
| Sep 24 | ARW Strategies | 600 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | 39 |
| Aug 23 | Change Research+3For · The Indianapolis Star | 2,111 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 42 · 45 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yetRTodd Young0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DThomas McDermott Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMThomas McDermott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LJames Sceniak0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-30Todd YoungS6IN00191 ↗
Receipts
$11.0M
Disburse
$9.6M
Cash on hand
$3.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Insurance$60.5K
Insurance · $60.5K
- Anthem · $36.2K
- Shepherd Insurance · $24.4K
Individuals $60.5K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$57.1K
Securities & investment · $57.1K
- Kkr · $34.4K
- Apollo Global Management · $22.8K
Individuals $57.1K · PACs $0
Govt employees$27.1K
Govt employees · $27.1K
- State of Indiana · $27.1K
Individuals $27.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ANTHEM$36.2K
KKR$34.4K
CAPITAL GROUP$31.2K
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$31.0K
STATE OF INDIANA$27.1K
Thomas McDermott Jr.
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$39.4K
Govt employees · $39.4K
- City of Hammond · $31.7K
- State of Indiana · $7.7K
Individuals $39.4K · PACs $0
Education$7.3K
Education · $7.3K
- Smith Sersic · $7.3K
Individuals $7.3K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$7.2K
Electric utilities · $7.2K
- Bellsom Electric · $7.2K
Individuals $7.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CITY OF HAMMOND$31.7K
STRUCTUREPOINT$12.4K
BOSE PUBLIC AFFAIRS GROUP$8.8K
WESTLAND & BENNETT$7.8K
STATE OF INDIANA$7.7K
James Sceniak
Receipts
$16.2K
Disburse
$17.7K
Cash on hand
$417.92
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
UPS$2.6K
NOT PROVIDED$1.5K
VOLUNTEER$1.0K
CHOSE NOT TO PROVIDE$500
COMFORT SYSTEMS USA$225
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$624.7K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$624.7K · 100%
Top spender
NATIONAL VICTORY AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $465.0K | 74% | for Todd Young |
| AMERICAN ENERGY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $104.0K | 17% | for Todd Young |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $49.7K | 8% | for Todd Young |
| CARE ACTION NOW INC. pac · boosts R
| R | $5.8K | 1% | for Todd Young |
| PERFORMANCE RACING INC. pac · boosts R
| R | $144.12 | 0% | for Todd Young |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jul 5
- Inside Elections · Mar 31
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 28
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-30
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks