Races · Senate · 2022 · Illinois
Senate · class III · open seat
Tammy Duckworth vs Kathy Salvi
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.0 (10th pctile) to D+31.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.0
80% CI: D +7.0 → D +31.0 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 15 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+15.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 15 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Research Co.+1For · Research Co. | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 55 · 38 |
| Nov 4 | Research Co. | 450 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 58 · 40 |
| Oct 24 | CiviqsFor · Civiqs | 659 · LV | D-LEAN | D +2.522 tracked | +4.0d lean | 56 · 40 |
| Oct 23 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 49 · 39 |
| Oct 23 | Civiqs | 659 · unknown | D-LEAN | D +2.522 tracked | +4.0d lean | 56 · 40 |
| Oct 21 | Emerson College | 1,000 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 49 · 39 |
| Oct 10 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Sun-Times | 770 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 50 · 36 |
| Oct 10 | Research America+1 | 1,000 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | -5.0noisy | 48 · 29 |
| Oct 9 | Public Policy Polling | 770 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 50 · 36 |
| Oct 7 | Repass | 1,000 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 · 29 |
Endorsements · 33 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet14
19
Endorsements tracked
Tammy Duckworth14 · 42%
Kathy Salvi19 · 58%
Total33
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RKathy Salvi19 endorsers
Most notable · Michael Flynn · former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) and former director of the DIA (2012–2014) (Democratic)
Other14
Other · 14
- Barrington Township · Republican Organization
- Bremen Township · Republican Organization
- Evanston Township · GOP
- Homer Township · Republicans
- Illinois · Citizens for Life
- Illinois Family Action
- McHenry County · GOPAC
- New Trier · GOP
- Niles Township · Republicans
- Northfield Township · Republican Organization
- Sangamon County · GOP
- Schaumburg Township · Republican Organization
- Wheeling Township · eeling Township
- Winfield · Township Republicans
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune · (Republican primary only)
- Daily Herald
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Michael Flynn · former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) and former director of the DIA (2012–2014) (Democratic)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Jeanne Ives · former state representative from the 42nd district (2013–2019)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Lake County · Republican Party
DTammy Duckworth14 endorsers
Most notable · Feminist Majority PAC
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Illinois AFL–CIO
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150
- League of Conservation Voters
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection Action Fund
Other7
Other · 7
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Jewish Dems
- Let America Vote
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women · for Women
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11Tammy DuckworthS6IL00292 ↗
Receipts
$14.8M
Disburse
$15.9M
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Air transport$42.4K
Air transport · $42.4K
- United Airlines · $42.4K
Individuals $42.4K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$24.1K
Computers / electronics · $24.1K
- Microsoft · $24.1K
Individuals $24.1K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$17.4K
Lawyers / law firms · $17.4K
- Clifford Law Offices · $17.4K
Individuals $17.4K · PACs $0
Education$16.2K
Education · $16.2K
- Northwestern University · $16.2K
Individuals $16.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SIMMONS HANLY CONROY$87.0K
UNITED AIRLINES$42.4K
L3HARRIS$25.2K
MICROSOFT$24.1K
BUNGE$22.7K
Kathy SalviS2IL00267 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$255.7K
D side
$60.7K · 24%
R side
$195.0K · 76%
Top spender
FOR A BETTER ILLINOIS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOR A BETTER ILLINOIS super pac · boosts R
| R | $120.0K | 47% | against Tammy Duckworth |
| SENATE LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $75.0K | 29% | for Kathy Salvi |
| THE VETERANS FOUNDATION PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $48.2K | 19% | for Tammy Duckworth |
| WAY TO LEAD PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $12.5K | 5% | for Tammy Duckworth |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $30 | 0% | for Tammy Duckworth |
| DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.07 | 0% | for Kathy Salvi |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 31
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 28
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified9 / 15deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-11
Endorsements33 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks