Races · Senate · 2022 · IL
Senate · class II · open seat

Tammy Duckworth vs Kathy Salvi

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Lean D — · 9 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1281d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 9 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 9 results

9 of 9 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/6/2022Research Co.1.01—(D+1.5)450—LV
1281d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1281d old
    Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Tammy Duckworth 55.0 · Kathy Salvi 38.0pollarch
10/25/2022Civiqs0.99L(D+2.5)659—LV
bias D+2.5pt1293d old+2
  • bias D+2.5pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt.
  • 1293d old
    Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Duckworth 56.0 · Kathy Salvi 40.0pollarch
10/24/2022Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
1294d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1294d old
    Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Duckworth 49.0 · Kathy Salvi 39.0pollarch
10/11/2022Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)770—LV
1307d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+4
  • 1307d old
    Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Sun-Times
    Commissioned by Sun-Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Tammy Duckworth 50.0 · Kathy Salvi 36.0pollarch
10/11/2022Research America1.00—1000—RV
no scored polls1307d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1307d old
    Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Tammy Duckworth 48.0 · Kathy Salvi 29.0pollarch
9/23/2022Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
1325d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1325d old
    Poll was fielded 1325 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Tammy Duckworth 50.0 · Kathy Salvi 31.0pollarch
8/28/2022Victory Geek1.00L512—LV
no scored polls1351d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1351d old
    Poll was fielded 1351 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Duckworth 58.0 · Kathy Salvi 35.0pollarch
7/19/2022Victory Research0.81—(D+1.2)1208—LV
3 scored polls1391d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1391d old
    Poll was fielded 1391 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Duckworth 43.0 · Kathy Salvi 34.0pollarch
7/19/2022Victory Research0.81—(D+1.2)1208—LV
3 scored polls1391d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1391d old
    Poll was fielded 1391 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Tammy Duckworth 44.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 38 total
Kathy Salvi (R)
23 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Jeanne Ives — former state representative from the 42nd district (2013–2019) [ 32 ]
Newspapers (2)
  • Chicago Tribune — (Republican primary only) [ 33 ]
  • Daily Herald — [ 34 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
  • Lake County — Republican Party [ 38 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Michael Flynn — former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) and former director of the DIA (2012–2014) (Democratic) [ 31 ] [ better source needed ]
Other (18)
  • 20 — 30%
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • Barrington Township — Republican Organization [ 35 ]
  • Bremen Township — Republican Organization [ 36 ]
  • Evanston Township — GOP [ 35 ]
  • Homer Township — Republicans [ 35 ]
  • Illinois — Citizens for Life [ 35 ]
  • Illinois Family Action — [ 37 ]
  • McHenry County — GOPAC [ 35 ]
  • New Trier — GOP [ 39 ]
  • Niles Township — Republicans [ 35 ]
  • Northfield Township — Republican Organization [ 35 ]
  • Sangamon County — GOP [ 41 ]
  • Schaumburg Township — Republican Organization [ 42 ]
  • Wheeling Township — eeling Township [ 40 ]
  • Winfield — Township Republicans [ 35 ]
Tammy Duckworth (D)
15 endorsements · source
Organizations / unions (8)
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 4 ]
  • Illinois AFL–CIO — [ 6 ]
  • International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 — [ 8 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 10 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 12 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 13 ]
  • Population Connection Action Fund — [ 14 ]
  • [ 15 ] — s Political Committee [ 15 ]
Other (7)
  • EMILY's List — [ 2 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 3 ]
  • Giffords — [ 5 ]
  • Jewish Dems — [ 9 ]
  • Let America Vote — [ 3 ]
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 11 ]
  • National Organization for Women — for Women [ 7 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-11
Total IE spending
$256K
For candidates
$136K
Against candidates
$120K
Latest filing: 11/11/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Tammy Duckworth (D)
$61K for · $120K against
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Total raised (cycle)
$14.8M
Total spent
$15.9M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Kathy Salvi (R)
$75K for · $0 against

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Mar 4 — +18.0 —
DDHQ Safe D Jul 20 — +18.0 —
The Economist Safe D Sep 7 — +18.0 —
538 Safe D Jun 30 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Apr 1 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Mar 1 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/6/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (4 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 1332d
  • 9/9/2022 Safe D D+16.0 via polls held 30d
  • 8/10/2022 Likely D D+9.0 via polls held 30d
  • 7/11/2022 Lean D via pvi