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Races · Senate · 2022 · Idaho
Senate · class III · open seat

David Roth vs Mike Crapo

← Iowa SenateIllinois Senate →
Safe RR +34.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Roth (D)
99% Crapo (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +34.3 · 80% CI R+46.3 → R+22.3
Actual result R+31.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+19) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+34.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+46.3 (10th pctile) to R+22.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +34.3
80% CI: R +46.3 → R +22.3 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+31.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 5 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMike Crapo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDavid Roth0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IScott Cleveland0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
CRay Writz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LIdaho Sierra Law0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-28
Mike CrapoS8ID00027 ↗
Receipts
$4.8M
Disburse
$6.5M
Cash on hand
$2.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$118.3K
Insurance$74.7K
Air transport$20.0K
Top contributors
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP$74.7K
CAPITAL GROUP$42.5K
BLACKROCK$33.8K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$29.6K
ELEVANCE HEALTH$27.1K
Scott ClevelandOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$104.5K
Disburse
$104.0K
Cash on hand
$518.31
Debts
$0
Top industries
Electric utilities$300
Top contributors
AMPAC ADVISORS$2.9K
FORTIS CONSTRUCTION$1.5K
THATHERN$1.0K
MENLO PARK FIRE DISTRICT$550
ONE SHOP KITCHEN, INC.$510.46
David RothOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$99.9K
Disburse
$97.7K
Cash on hand
$2.2K
Debts
$7.6K
Top industries
Education$1.0K
Real estate$500
Top contributors
RETIRE$5.0K
ZOOT ENTERPRIZES$1.6K
CDI$1.5K
CBRE$1.5K
UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO$1.0K
Ray WritzOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.6K
Disburse
$2.5K
Cash on hand
$42.99
Debts
$216.55
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$204.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$204.0K · 100%
Top spender
AMERICAN ENERGY ACT…
For / against split
For Crapo $204.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICAN ENERGY ACTION FUNDR$104.0K51%for Mike Crapo
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC.R$100.0K49%for Mike Crapo

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Mar 3
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 6
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 31
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks