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Races · Senate · 2022 · Iowa
Senate · class III · open seat

Michael Franken vs Chuck Grassley

← Hawaii SenateIdaho Senate →
Safe RR +16.2 forecast· 22 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Franken (D)
99% Grassley (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +16.2 · 80% CI R+28.2 → R+4.2
Actual result R+12.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.2 (10th pctile) to R+4.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.2
80% CI: R +28.2 → R +4.2 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used22
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+12.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

364044485256GRASSLEY 52.3FRANKEN 41.8APR '22JUL '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 22 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 2Selzer & Co.+1801 · LVNEUTRAL—+11.8d lean41 · 53
Nov 1Selzer & Co.801 · unknownNEUTRAL—+11.8d lean41 · 53
Oct 26Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 54
Oct 25Cygnal600 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 54
Oct 24CiviqsFor · Civiqs623 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean44 · 52
Oct 23Civiqs623 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean44 · 52
Oct 18The Tarrance Group+2600 · LVR-LEAND +1.13 tracked+0.3noisy42 · 53
Oct 17Change Research+1For · Change Research1,008 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy45 · 48
Oct 16Tarrance Group600 · unknownNEUTRALR +0.78 tracked-3.6r lean42 · 53
Oct 15Change Research1,008 · unknownD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy45 · 48
Oct 11Selzer & Co.+1For · The Des Moines Register620 · LVNEUTRAL—+11.8d lean43 · 46
Oct 10Selzer & Co.620 · unknownNEUTRAL—+11.8d lean43 · 46
Oct 3Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling959 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned38 · 49
Oct 3Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned40 · 54
Oct 2Cygnal600 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned40 · 54
Oct 2Emerson College959 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned38 · 49
Sep 24Change Research978 · unknownD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy44 · 49
Sep 7Change Research+1For · Admiral Mike Franken for Iowa1,143 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy44 · 48
Jul 13Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 52
Jul 12Selzer & Co.+1For · The Des Moines Register597 · LVNEUTRAL—+11.8d lean39 · 47
Jul 3Change Research+1For · Change Research1,488 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy44 · 49
Apr 10Change Research+1For · Admiral Mike Franken for Iowa1,070 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy42 · 45
· 22 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RChuck Grassley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMichael Franken0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-09
Chuck GrassleyS0IA00028 ↗
Receipts
$9.5M
Disburse
$10.9M
Cash on hand
$441.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$15.3K
Securities & investment$11.6K
Top contributors
DISH NETWORK$19.9K
DCI GROUP$18.4K
SUMMIT AGRICULTURAL GROUP$15.3K
BLACKSTONE$11.6K
MSP RECOVERY LLC$11.6K
Michael FrankenS2IA00172 ↗
Receipts
$11.5M
Disburse
$11.4M
Cash on hand
$51.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$48.9K
Real estate$13.6K
Crop production$6.8K
Govt employees$6.4K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA$29.7K
IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY$19.2K
KNAPP PROPERTIES$13.6K
ADVANTAGE ADMINISTRATORS$6.8K
U OF IA$6.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$20.7M
D side
$287.6K · 1%
R side
$20.4M · 99%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
For / against split
For Franken $199.7K
Against Grassley $87.9K
For Grassley $20.4M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUNDR$18.1M87%for Chuck Grassley
AMERICAN ENERGY ACTION FUNDR$2.0M10%for Chuck Grassley
OUR FUTURE UNITEDD$191.0K1%for Michael Franken
INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF SHOPPING CENTERS INC.R$111.3K1%for Chuck Grassley
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$82.6K0%for Chuck Grassley
RURALVOTE.ORGD$70.9K0%against Chuck Grassley
MEIDASTOUCHD$5.1K0%for Michael Franken
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTIOND$2.5K0%for Michael Franken
PROTECT THE VOTED$999.980%for Michael Franken

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 6
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 6
538
Safe R
Sep 5
Inside Elections
Safe R
Aug 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Aug 30

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified13 / 22deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-09
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks