Races · Senate · 2022 · HI
Senate · class II · open seat
Brian Schatz vs Bob McDermott
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely D
likely-d
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
6 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | Mar 4 | — | +18.0 | — |
| DDHQ | Safe D | Jul 20 | — | +18.0 | — |
| The Economist | Safe D | Sep 7 | — | +18.0 | — |
| 538 | Safe D | Jun 30 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Apr 1 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | Mar 1 | — | +18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 7/11/2022 Likely D via pvi