Races · Senate · 2022 · Hawaii
Senate · class III · open seat
Brian Schatz vs Bob McDermott
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+26.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+14.3 (10th pctile) to D+38.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +26.3
80% CI: D +14.3 → D +38.3 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+45.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 5 candidates with no endorsements yetDBrian Schatz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBob McDermott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LFeena Bonoan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GEmma Jane Pohlman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IDan Decker0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-17Brian SchatzS4HI00136 ↗
Receipts
$2.5M
Disburse
$3.5M
Cash on hand
$2.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
HAWAII PACIFIC HEALTH$13.8K
DISH NETWORK$11.6K
FORBES TATE PARTNERS$8.9K
JIM FALK AUTOMOTIVE GROUP$6.0K
CH2M HILL$5.9K
Feena Bonoan
Receipts
$21.5K
Disburse
$21.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Insurance$3.0K
Insurance · $3.0K
- Campaign Event on Maui · $3.0K
Individuals $3.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CAMPAIGN EVENT ON MAUI$3.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$426.66
D side
$426.66 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KY super pac · boosts D
| D | $416.66 | 98% | for Brian Schatz |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 2% | for Brian Schatz |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 31
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 28
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks