Races · Senate · 2022 · Georgia

Senate · class III · open seat

Raphael Warnock vs Herschel Walker

← Florida Senate Hawaii Senate →

Tilt DD +1.5 forecast· 145 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
60% Warnock (D)
40% Walker (R)
Win probability
Raphael Warnock60% (D)
Herschel Walker40% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +1.5
80% CIR+10.5 → D+13.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +1.5 · 80% CI R+10.5 → D+13.5
Actual result D+0.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 60% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.5 (10th pctile) to D+13.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 60% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +1.5

80% CI: R +10.5 → D +13.5 · win prob 60%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	145
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+0.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
051015202530354045505560WARNOCK 49.2WALKER 47.4WALKER 47.3OLIVER 2.8SEP '22OCT '22DEC '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 145 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Dec 4, 22	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,099 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	51 · 47
Dec 4, 22	Data for Progress+1	1,229 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	51 · 49
Dec 3, 22	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	750 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	51 · 48
Dec 3, 22	Landmark CommunicationsFor · Landmark Communications, Inc	800 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.45 tracked	+0.3aligned	52 · 47
Dec 3, 22	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	625 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	50 · 45
Dec 3, 22	InsiderAdvantage	750 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	51
Dec 3, 22	Mitchell Research & Communications	625 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	50
Dec 3, 22	Trafalgar Group	1,099 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	51
Dec 3, 22	Landmark Communications	800 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +2.45 tracked	+0.3aligned	52
Dec 2, 22	Data for Progress	1,229 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	51
Dec 1, 22	Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling	818 · RV	R-LEAN	R +1.410 tracked	-3.2r lean	49 · 47
Nov 30, 22	Patriot Polling	818 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +1.410 tracked	-3.2r lean	49
Nov 29, 22	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	888 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	51 · 49
Nov 29, 22	SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA	1,214 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	50 · 47
Nov 28, 22	CNN/SSRS+1	1,886 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.417 tracked	+3.0d lean	51 · 44
Nov 28, 22	Emerson College	888 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	51
Nov 27, 22	UMass Lowell/YouGovFor · UMass Lowell/YouGov	1,300 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.46 tracked	+3.0d lean	51 · 46
Nov 27, 22	SurveyUSA	1,214 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	50
Nov 26, 22	Phillips Academy	862 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.24 tracked	+1.7aligned	47 · 48
Nov 26, 22	SSRS	1,184 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	52
Nov 25, 22	Frederick Polls	939 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	50 · 50
Nov 25, 22	Phillips Academy	862 · unknown	NEUTRAL	R +1.24 tracked	+1.7aligned	47
Nov 24, 22	Frederick Polls	939 · unknown	D-LEAN	—	—	50
Nov 22, 22	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion	1,300 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	51
Nov 16, 22	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1	500 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	51 · 47
Nov 13, 22	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research	500 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	51
Nov 6, 22	AtlasIntel+1	791 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	46 · 49
Nov 6, 22	Landmark CommunicationsFor · RealClearPolitics	1,214 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.45 tracked	+0.3aligned	46 · 47
Nov 5, 22	InsiderAdvantage+1For · ATLANTA - The final InsiderAdvantage	550 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	47 · 49
Nov 5, 22	Research Co.+1For · Research Co.	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	47 · 47
Nov 5, 22	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,103 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	47 · 50
Nov 5, 22	Data for Progress+1	1,474 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	48 · 49
Nov 5, 22	Targoz Market ResearchFor · PollSmart MR	579 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.712 tracked	+4.3noisy	47 · 49
Nov 5, 22	Landmark Communications	1,214 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +2.45 tracked	+0.3aligned	46
Nov 5, 22	InsiderAdvantage	550 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	47
Nov 5, 22	AtlasIntel	791 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	46
Nov 5, 22	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	690 · unknown	R-LEAN	—	—	59
Nov 4, 22	East Carolina University	1,077 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.88 tracked	-0.5aligned	49 · 49
Nov 4, 22	Research Co.	450 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	49
Nov 4, 22	Trafalgar Group	1,103 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	47
Nov 3, 22	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research	1,077 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	49
Nov 3, 22	Data for Progress	1,474 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	48
Nov 3, 22	Targoz Market Research	579 · unknown	NEUTRAL	R +1.712 tracked	+4.3noisy	47
Nov 1, 22	Amber Integrated+1For · AMBER INTEGRATED	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +7.87 tracked	+8.8d lean	45 · 48
Nov 1, 22	Remington Research Group+1	1,150 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	45 · 49
Nov 1, 22	Echleon Insights	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.93 tracked	—	45 · 49
Nov 1, 22	Marist College+1For · Marist College	1,168 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	49 · 45
Nov 1, 22	Moore Information Group+2	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +10.04 tracked	-6.5r lean	44 · 49
Nov 1, 22	SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA	1,171 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	49 · 43
Oct 31, 22	Patinkin Research Strategies	700 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.43 tracked	—	49 · 45
Oct 31, 22	Echelon Insights	500 · unknown	NEUTRAL	R +1.36 tracked	+3.3noisy	45
Oct 31, 22	Remington Research Group	1,150 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	45
Oct 31, 22	Marist College	1,168 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	49
Oct 31, 22	Amber Integrated	600 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +7.87 tracked	+8.8d lean	45
Oct 30, 22	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	49 · 47
Oct 30, 22	SurveyUSA	1,171 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	49
Oct 30, 22	Moore Information Group+1	800 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +10.04 tracked	-6.5r lean	44
Oct 30, 22	Patinkin Research Strategies	700 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +4.43 tracked	—	49
Oct 29, 22	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	1,002 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	44 · 43
Oct 29, 22	Emerson College	1,000 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	50
Oct 27, 22	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	1,002 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	44
Oct 26, 22	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	550 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	45 · 48
Oct 26, 22	Siena College/NYT+1	604 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.34 tracked	—	49 · 46
Oct 26, 22	University of Georgia+1For · Georgia media outlets earlier this month	1,022 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.03 tracked	+0.1aligned	45 · 46
Oct 26, 22	InsiderAdvantage	550 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	45
Oct 25, 22	The New York Times/Siena College	604 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	47
Oct 24, 22	co/efficientFor · co/efficient	946 · LV	R-LEAN	R +5.413 tracked	-3.4r lean	44 · 47
Oct 24, 22	Moore Information Group+2	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +10.04 tracked	-6.5r lean	42 · 46
Oct 23, 22	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	1,053 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	43 · 48
Oct 23, 22	Moore Information Group+1	800 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +10.04 tracked	-6.5r lean	42
Oct 23, 22	co/efficient	946 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +5.413 tracked	-3.4r lean	44
Oct 22, 22	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,076 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	47 · 49
Oct 22, 22	Rasmussen Reports	1,053 · unknown	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	43
Oct 21, 22	Trafalgar Group	1,076 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	47
Oct 21, 22	University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs	1,022 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	45
Oct 19, 22	Garin Hart Yang Research Group *	503 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	48
Oct 17, 22	East Carolina University	905 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.88 tracked	-0.5aligned	49 · 47
Oct 16, 22	Landmark CommunicationsFor · https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com	500 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.45 tracked	+0.3aligned	46 · 46
Oct 16, 22	Data for Progress+1	984 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	48 · 47
Oct 15, 22	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	550 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	46 · 43
Oct 15, 22	InsiderAdvantage	550 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	46
Oct 15, 22	Landmark Communications	500 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +2.45 tracked	+0.3aligned	46
Oct 14, 22	Data for Progress	984 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	48
Oct 14, 22	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research	905 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	49
Oct 13, 22	Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights	1,018 · LV	R-LEAN	R +4.59 tracked	-0.6aligned	46 · 46
Oct 10, 22	CiviqsFor · Civiqs	717 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.522 tracked	+4.0d lean	49 · 46
Oct 10, 22	Moore Information Group+2	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +10.04 tracked	-6.5r lean	44 · 46
Oct 10, 22	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,084 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	46 · 45
Oct 9, 22	Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University	1,157 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	52 · 45
Oct 9, 22	Trafalgar Group	1,084 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	46
Oct 9, 22	Moore Information Group+1	800 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +10.04 tracked	-6.5r lean	44
Oct 9, 22	Civiqs	717 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +2.522 tracked	+4.0d lean	49
Oct 9, 22	Wick	1,018 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	46
Oct 8, 22	Quinnipiac University	1,157 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	52
Oct 6, 22	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	48 · 46
Oct 5, 22	Emerson College	1,000 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	48
Oct 3, 22	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	550 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	47 · 44
Oct 3, 22	SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA	1,076 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	50 · 38
Oct 3, 22	University of Georgia+1For · ajc	1,030 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.03 tracked	+0.1aligned	46 · 43
Oct 3, 22	InsiderAdvantage	550 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	47
Oct 1, 22	SurveyUSA	1,076 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	50
Sep 28, 22	University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs	1,030 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	46
Sep 25, 22	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	1,011 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	46 · 41
Sep 23, 22	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	1,011 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	46
Sep 19, 22	Data for Progress+1	1,006 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 46
Sep 18, 22	YouGov/CBS News+2For · CBS News	1,178 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+1.6aligned	51 · 49
Sep 17, 22	Data for Progress	1,006 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	46
Sep 15, 22	University of Georgia+2For · Axios	861 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.03 tracked	+0.1aligned	44 · 46
Sep 15, 22	YouGov	1,178 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	51
Sep 14, 22	Marist College+1For · Marist College	1,202 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	47 · 42
Sep 13, 22	Marist College	1,202 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	47
Sep 11, 22	Kurt Jetta+1	949 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+10.4d lean	50 · 37
Sep 11, 22	Quinnipiac University+1	1,278 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	52 · 46
Sep 10, 22	Center Street PAC	542 · unknown	D-LEAN	—	—	49
Sep 10, 22	University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs	861 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	44
Sep 9, 22	Quinnipiac University	1,278 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	52
Sep 6, 22	Echelon Insights+1	751 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.36 tracked	+3.3noisy	50 · 40
Sep 6, 22	InsiderAdvantage+1For · New InsiderAdvantage	550 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	44 · 47
Aug 28, 22	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	44 · 46
Aug 26, 22	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,079 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	47 · 48
Aug 6, 22	Phillips AcademyFor · The Phillips Academy Poll	971 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.24 tracked	+1.7aligned	44 · 45
Jul 31, 22	Research AffiliatesFor · PDF Host	420 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	49 · 46
Jul 26, 22	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	750 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	48 · 45
Jul 25, 22	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	908 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	46 · 42
Jul 23, 22	PEM Management Corporation+1	300 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	42 · 46
Jul 23, 22	SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA	604 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	48 · 39
Jul 21, 22	University of Georgia+1	902 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.03 tracked	+0.1aligned	46 · 43
Jul 19, 22	Beacon Research+1For · Google Docs	1,003 · RV	D-LEAN	—	+8.2d lean	48 · 36
Jul 10, 22	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1	1,197 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	50 · 47
Jul 5, 22	Data for Progress+2For · The Daily Beast	1,131 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	47 · 49
Jun 26, 22	Change Research+1	704 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	48 · 44
Jun 26, 22	Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University	1,497 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	54 · 44
Jun 15, 22	Moore Information Group+2	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +10.04 tracked	-6.5r lean	47 · 47
Jun 8, 22	East Carolina University	868 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +1.88 tracked	-0.5aligned	47 · 47
Apr 26, 22	SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA	1,278 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	50 · 45
Apr 15, 22	Grassroots Targeting+1	2,500 · RV	R-LEAN	—	—	41 · 51
Apr 2, 22	Emerson College+1	1,013 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	45 · 49
Mar 7, 22	Blueprint Polling	662 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.4d lean	45 · 49
Feb 5, 22	Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights	1,290 · LV	R-LEAN	R +4.59 tracked	-0.6aligned	46 · 47
Jan 23, 22	Quinnipiac University+2For · Quinnipiac University	1,702 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	48 · 49
Jan 23, 22	University of Georgia+1For · ajc	872 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.03 tracked	+0.1aligned	44 · 47
Dec 7, 21	NRSC+1For · NBC News	831 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	48 · 49
Nov 8, 21	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	753 · RV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	45 · 39
Aug 4, 21	Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling	622 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	48 · 46
Mar 8, 21	The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage	1,093 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	46 · 48

· 145 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 17 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

17Warnock · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Raphael Warnock17 · 100%
Herschel Walker0 · 0%
Total17
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DRaphael Warnock17 endorsers

Most notable · Demetrius Douglas · former professional football player and state representative from the 78th district (2013–present)

Other9

Organizations7

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

RHerschel Walker0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

REPHerschel Junior Walker0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LChase Oliver0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2023-08-06

Raphael WarnockS0GA00559 ↗

Receipts

$206.6M

Disburse

$223.5M

Cash on hand

$5.9M

Debts

Top industries

Education$489.9K

Internet$336.4K

Computers / electronics$293.2K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$336.4K

EMORY UNIVERSITY$141.9K

MICROSOFT$129.5K

STANFORD UNIVERSITY$105.9K

WILMERHALE$91.2K

Herschel WalkerS2GA00225 ↗

Receipts

$73.7M

Disburse

$68.7M

Cash on hand

$5.0M

Debts

$231.5K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Chase OliverOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$14.2K

Disburse

$8.8K

Cash on hand

$1.3K

Debts

Top industries

Crop production$500

Computers / electronics$500

Top contributors

J.D. AIKEN COMPANY$1.0K

TWO BROTHERS FARMS, LLC$500

MICROSOFT$500

PLATTE INSTITUTE$250

WEISSMAN, PC$250

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$17.8M

D side

$14.6M · 82%

R side

$3.2M · 18%

Top spender

WORKER POWER PAC FO…

For / against split

For Warnock $11.6M

Against Walker $3.0M

Against Warnock $125.0K

For Walker $3.1M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WORKER POWER PAC FOR GEORGIA	D	$8.1M	46%	for Raphael Warnock
WFP NATIONAL PAC	D	$1.5M	9%	for Raphael Warnock
REPUBLICAN ACCOUNTABILITY PAC	D	$1.5M	8%	against Herschel Walker
END CITIZENS UNITED	D	$1.3M	7%	against Herschel Walker
GRASSROOTS ACTION FUND	R	$1.0M	6%	for Herschel Walker
OUR AMERICAN CENTURY	R	$970.0K	5%	for Herschel Walker
CASA IN ACTION PAC	D	$544.1K	3%	for Raphael Warnock
GOA VICTORY FUND	R	$407.4K	2%	for Herschel Walker
LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	D	$359.4K	2%	for Raphael Warnock
BLACKPAC	D	$291.5K	2%	for Raphael Warnock

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D2

Tilt D1

Tossup2

Lean R1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Nov 17

DDHQ

Lean D

Dec 5

The Economist

Tossup

Oct 31

FiveThirtyEight

Lean R

Nov 6

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Nov 30

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Dec 4

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tossupmodel

May 15, 2026Tilt Rmodel

May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified86 / 145deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2023-08-06

Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks