Races · Senate · 2022 · GA

Senate · class II · open seat

Raphael Warnock vs Herschel Walker

← FL Senate HI Senate →

Tilt R — · 91 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1252d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 91 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R

tilt-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 91 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:91 of 91 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
12/5/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1099	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1252d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1252d old Poll was fielded 1252 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 51.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
12/5/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1229	—	LV	1252d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1252d old Poll was fielded 1252 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 51.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0	poll arch
12/4/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	750	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1253d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1253d old Poll was fielded 1253 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 51.0 · Herschel Walker 48.0	poll arch
12/4/2022	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	800	—	LV	1253d old✓ verified 5d ago+1 1253d old Poll was fielded 1253 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 52.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
12/4/2022	Mitchell Research	1.09	neutral(R+0.0)	625	—	LV	1253d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1253d old Poll was fielded 1253 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. bias R+0.0pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.0pt.	Raphael Warnock 50.0 · Herschel Walker 45.0	poll arch
12/2/2022	Patriot Polling	1.37	R(R+1.4)	818	—	RV	1255d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1255d old Poll was fielded 1255 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias R+1.4pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
11/30/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	888	—	LV	1257d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1257d old Poll was fielded 1257 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 51.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0	poll arch
11/30/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1214	—	LV	1257d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1257d old Poll was fielded 1257 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 50.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
11/29/2022	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	1886	—	RV	historical bias D+4.4pt1258d old+3 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1258d old Poll was fielded 1258 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. n=1,886 Sample size of 1,886 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Raphael Warnock 51.0 · Herschel Walker 44.0	poll arch
11/28/2022	UMass Lowell/YouGov	0.93	L(D+3.4)	1300	—	LV	1259d old✓ verified 5d ago+1 1259d old Poll was fielded 1259 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 51.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0	poll arch
11/27/2022	Phillips Academy	0.79	—(R+1.2)	862	—	LV	4 scored polls1260d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1260d old Poll was fielded 1260 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 48.0	poll arch
11/26/2022	Frederick Polls	1.00	L	939	—	LV	no scored polls1261d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1261d old Poll was fielded 1261 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 50.0 · Herschel Walker 50.0	poll arch
11/17/2022	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research	1.00	L	500	—	LV	no scored polls1270d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1270d old Poll was fielded 1270 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 51.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
11/7/2022	AtlasIntel	2.09	neutral(D+0.3)	791	—	LV	1280d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1280d old Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 2.09 Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. accurate · bias D+0.3pt Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0	poll arch
11/7/2022	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	1214	—	LV	1280d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1280d old Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0 · Chase Oliver 5.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1281d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0 · Chase Oliver 1.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	—	LV	1281d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0 · Chase Oliver 1.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1103	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1281d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 50.0 · Chase Oliver 2.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1474	—	LV	1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	579	—	LV	1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0 · Chase Oliver 1.0	poll arch
11/5/2022	East Carolina University	1.63	—(D+1.8)	1077	—	LV	1282d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1282d old Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0 · Chase Oliver 2.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Amber Integrated	0.43	L(D+7.8)	600	—	LV	weight 0.431285d old+3 weight 0.43 Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.8pt vs editors Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 45.0 · Herschel Walker 48.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Remington Research Group	0.61	neutral(D+0.5)	1150	—	LV	1285d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.5pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 45.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0 · Chase Oliver 2.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Echleon Insights	1.68	—(R+0.9)	500	—	LV	3 scored polls1285d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 45.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1168	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1285d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Moore Information Group	0.40	R(R+10.0)	800	—	LV	weight 0.404 scored polls+4 weight 0.40 Aggregation weight is 0.40 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+6.5pt vs editors Across 8 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.5pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 44.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0 · Chase Oliver 2.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1171	—	LV	1285d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 43.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
11/1/2022	Patinkin Research Strategies	0.91	L(D+4.4)	700	—	RV	3 scored polls1286d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 45.0 · Chase Oliver 4.0	poll arch
10/31/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1287d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1287d old Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0 · Chase Oliver 1.0	poll arch
10/30/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1002	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1288d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Raphael Warnock 44.0 · Herschel Walker 43.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1291d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 45.0 · Herschel Walker 48.0 · Chase Oliver 2.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	Siena College/NYT	2.52	—(D+1.3)	604	—	LV	4 scored polls1291d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 2.52 Aggregation weight is 2.52 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0 · Chase Oliver 1.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	1022	—	LV	3 scored polls1291d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Raphael Warnock 45.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0 · Chase Oliver 5.0	poll arch
10/25/2022	co/efficient	0.71	R(R+5.4)	946	—	LV	historical bias R+5.4pt1293d old+3 historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1293d old Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 44.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
10/25/2022	Moore Information Group	0.40	R(R+10.0)	800	—	LV	weight 0.404 scored polls+4 weight 0.40 Aggregation weight is 0.40 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1293d old Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+6.5pt vs editors Across 8 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.5pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 42.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
10/24/2022	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	1053	—	LV	bias R+2.1pt1294d old+3 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 1294d old Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 43.0 · Herschel Walker 48.0	poll arch
10/23/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1076	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1295d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0 · Chase Oliver 5.0	poll arch
10/18/2022	East Carolina University	1.63	—(D+1.8)	905	—	LV	1300d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1300d old Poll was fielded 1300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
10/17/2022	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	500	—	LV	1301d old✓ verified 5d ago+1 1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
10/17/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	984	—	LV	1301d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
10/16/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1302d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1302d old Poll was fielded 1302 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 43.0 · Chase Oliver 4.0	poll arch
10/14/2022	Wick Insights	0.74	R(R+4.0)	1018	—	LV	1304d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1304d old Poll was fielded 1304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0	poll arch
10/11/2022	Civiqs	0.99	L(D+2.5)	717	—	LV	bias D+2.5pt1307d old+2 bias D+2.5pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt. 1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0	poll arch
10/11/2022	Moore Information Group	0.40	R(R+10.0)	800	—	LV	weight 0.404 scored polls+4 weight 0.40 Aggregation weight is 0.40 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+6.5pt vs editors Across 8 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.5pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 44.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0 · Chase Oliver 4.0	poll arch
10/11/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1084	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1307d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 45.0 · Chase Oliver 4.0	poll arch
10/10/2022	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1157	—	LV	1308d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1308d old Poll was fielded 1308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 52.0 · Herschel Walker 45.0	poll arch
10/7/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1311d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1311d old Poll was fielded 1311 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0 · Chase Oliver 1.0	poll arch
10/4/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1314d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1314d old Poll was fielded 1314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 44.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
10/4/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1076	—	LV	1314d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1314d old Poll was fielded 1314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 50.0 · Herschel Walker 38.0	poll arch
10/4/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	1030	—	LV	3 scored polls1314d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1314d old Poll was fielded 1314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 43.0 · Chase Oliver 4.0	poll arch
9/26/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1011	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1322d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1322d old Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 41.0	poll arch
9/20/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1006	—	RV	1328d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1328d old Poll was fielded 1328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0 · Chase Oliver 4.0	poll arch
9/19/2022	YouGov/CBS News	1.00	—	1178	—	RV	no scored polls1329d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1329d old Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 51.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0	poll arch
9/16/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	861	—	LV	3 scored polls1332d old+4 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1332d old Poll was fielded 1332 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Axios Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Raphael Warnock 44.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0	poll arch
9/15/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1202	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1333d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1333d old Poll was fielded 1333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 42.0 · Chase Oliver 4.0	poll arch
9/12/2022	Kurt Jetta	1.00	neutral	949	—	RV	no scored polls1336d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1336d old Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Raphael Warnock 50.0 · Herschel Walker 37.0	poll arch
9/12/2022	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1278	—	LV	1336d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1336d old Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 52.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0	poll arch
9/7/2022	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	751	—	LV	1341d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 50.0 · Herschel Walker 40.0	poll arch
9/7/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1341d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 44.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0 · Chase Oliver 4.0	poll arch
8/29/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	600	—	LV	1350d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1350d old Poll was fielded 1350 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 44.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0	poll arch
8/27/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1079	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1352d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1352d old Poll was fielded 1352 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 48.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
8/7/2022	Phillips Academy	0.79	—(R+1.2)	971	—	RV	4 scored polls1372d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1372d old Poll was fielded 1372 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Raphael Warnock 44.0 · Herschel Walker 45.0	poll arch
8/1/2022	Research Affiliates	1.00	L	420	—	LV	no scored polls1378d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1378d old Poll was fielded 1378 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 49.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0	poll arch
7/27/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	750	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1383d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1383d old Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 45.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
7/26/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	908	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1384d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1384d old Poll was fielded 1384 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 42.0	poll arch
7/24/2022	PEM Management Corporation	1.00	R	300	—	LV	no scored pollsn=300+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=300 Sample size of 300 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.7pt — wider than typical. 1386d old Poll was fielded 1386 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 42.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0	poll arch
7/24/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	604	—	LV	1386d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1386d old Poll was fielded 1386 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 39.0	poll arch
7/22/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	902	—	LV	3 scored polls1388d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1388d old Poll was fielded 1388 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 43.0 · Chase Oliver 3.0	poll arch
7/20/2022	Beacon Research	1.00	L	1003	—	RV	no scored polls1390d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1390d old Poll was fielded 1390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 36.0	poll arch
7/11/2022	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research	1.00	L	1197	—	LV	no scored polls1399d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1399d old Poll was fielded 1399 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 50.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
7/6/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1131	—	LV	1404d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4 1404d old Poll was fielded 1404 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: The Daily Beast Commissioned by The Daily Beast, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0	poll arch
6/27/2022	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	704	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt1413d old+3 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 1413d old Poll was fielded 1413 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 44.0	poll arch
6/27/2022	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1497	—	RV	1413d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1413d old Poll was fielded 1413 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 54.0 · Herschel Walker 44.0	poll arch
6/16/2022	Moore Information Group	0.40	R(R+10.0)	800	—	LV	weight 0.404 scored polls+4 weight 0.40 Aggregation weight is 0.40 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1424d old Poll was fielded 1424 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+6.5pt vs editors Across 8 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.5pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
6/9/2022	East Carolina University	1.63	—(D+1.8)	868	—	RV	1431d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1431d old Poll was fielded 1431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
4/27/2022	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1278	—	LV	1474d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1474d old Poll was fielded 1474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 50.0 · Herschel Walker 45.0	poll arch
4/16/2022	Grassroots Targeting	1.00	R	2500	—	RV	no scored polls1485d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1485d old Poll was fielded 1485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. n=2,500 Sample size of 2,500 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Raphael Warnock 41.0 · Herschel Walker 51.0	poll arch
4/3/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1013	—	RV	1498d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1498d old Poll was fielded 1498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Raphael Warnock 45.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0	poll arch
3/8/2022	Blueprint Polling	1.00	L	662	—	LV	no scored polls1524d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1524d old Poll was fielded 1524 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 45.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0	poll arch
2/6/2022	Wick Insights	0.74	R(R+4.0)	1290	—	LV	1554d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1554d old Poll was fielded 1554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
1/24/2022	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1702	—	RV	1567d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1567d old Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. n=1,702 Sample size of 1,702 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0	poll arch
1/24/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	872	—	RV	3 scored polls1567d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1567d old Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Raphael Warnock 44.0 · Herschel Walker 47.0	poll arch
1/24/2022	University of Georgia	3.10	—(R+0.0)	872	—	RV	3 scored polls1567d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1567d old Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. weight 3.10 Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Gary Black 41.0	poll arch
12/8/2021	NRSC	1.00	R	831	—	LV	no scored polls1614d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1614d old Poll was fielded 1614 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. TV-network-sponsored: NBC News Commissioned by NBC News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 49.0	poll arch
11/9/2021	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1.00	—(D+5.3)	753	—	RV	1643d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1643d old Poll was fielded 1643 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Raphael Warnock 45.0 · Herschel Walker 39.0	poll arch
8/5/2021	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	622	—	unknown	1739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 1739d old Poll was fielded 1739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Raphael Warnock 48.0 · Herschel Walker 46.0	poll arch
8/5/2021	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	622	—	unknown	1739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 1739d old Poll was fielded 1739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Gary Black 38.0	poll arch
8/5/2021	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	622	—	unknown	1739d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 1739d old Poll was fielded 1739 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Raphael Warnock 47.0 · Kelly Loeffler 44.0	poll arch
3/9/2021	The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage	1.00	R	1093	—	LV	no scored polls1888d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1888d old Poll was fielded 1888 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Herschel Walker 48.0	poll arch
3/9/2021	The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage	1.00	R	1093	—	LV	no scored polls1888d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1888d old Poll was fielded 1888 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Kelly Loeffler 41.0	poll arch
3/9/2021	The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage	1.00	R	1093	—	LV	no scored polls1888d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1888d old Poll was fielded 1888 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Raphael Warnock 46.0 · Doug Collins 45.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 19 total

Raphael Warnock (D)

19 endorsements · source

Elected officials (1)

Demetrius Douglas — former professional football player and state representative from the 78th district (2013–present) [ 12 ]

Organizations / unions (7)

Communications Workers of America — [ 27 ]
Feminist Majority PAC — [ 14 ]
Humane Society of the United States — Legislative Fund [ 17 ]
League of Conservation Voters — [ 19 ]
Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 22 ]
Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 24 ]
Population Connection Action Fund — [ 25 ]

Other (11)

80 — 90%
90 — 100%
End Citizens United — [ 13 ]
Giffords — [ 15 ]
Human Rights Campaign — [ 16 ]
Jewish Dems — [ 18 ]
Let America Vote — [ 13 ]
March On — [ 20 ]
NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 21 ]
Peace Action — [ 23 ]
Sierra Club — [ 26 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2023-08-06

Total IE spending

$33.4M

For candidates

$29.9M

Against candidates

$3.4M

Latest filing: 8/6/2023
Source: FEC Schedule E

Kelly Loeffler (R)

$15.2M for · $338K against

$12.5M for NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND Super PAC
$509K for SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND PAC
$508K for SENATE LEADERSHIP FUND Super PAC
$436K for COMMITTEE TO DEFEAT THE PRESIDENT Super PAC
$250K for WFW ACTION FUND, INC. Super PAC

Raphael Warnock (D)

$11.6M for · $125K against

Cash on hand

$5.9M

Total raised (cycle)

$206.6M

Total spent

$223.5M

Debts

Source: FEC

$8.1M for WORKER POWER PAC FOR GEORGIA Super PAC
$1.5M for WFP NATIONAL PAC Super PAC
$544K for CASA IN ACTION PAC Super PAC
$359K for LET AMERICA VOTE PAC PAC
$292K for BLACKPAC Super PAC

Herschel Walker (R)

$3.1M for · $3.0M against

Cash on hand

$5.0M

Total raised (cycle)

$73.7M

Total spent

$68.7M

Debts

$231K

Source: FEC

$1.5M against REPUBLICAN ACCOUNTABILITY PAC Super PAC
$1.3M against END CITIZENS UNITED PAC
$1.0M for GRASSROOTS ACTION FUND Super PAC
$970K for OUR AMERICAN CENTURY Super PAC
$407K for GOA VICTORY FUND Super PAC

Doug Collins (R)

$0 for · $9 against

$9 against PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES Super PAC

Gary Black (?)

$0 for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$2K

Total raised (cycle)

$2.0M

Total spent

$2.0M

Debts

Source: FEC

Chase Oliver (?)

$0 for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$1K

Total raised (cycle)

$14K

Total spent

$9K

Debts

Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 18	—	0.0	—
DDHQ	Lean D	Dec 6	—	+3.5	—
The Economist	Tossup	Nov 1	—	0.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Lean R	Nov 7	—	-3.5	—
Inside Elections	Tilt D	Dec 1	—	+1.3	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Dec 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 42 months ago (12/5/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (5 changes)

5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi held 1279d
11/1/2022 Tossup D+0.1 via polls held 7d
10/25/2022 Tilt D D+1.1 via polls held 76d
8/10/2022 Lean D D+2.4 via polls held 30d
7/11/2022 Tossup D+0.1 via polls