Races · Senate · 2022 · Connecticut
Senate · class III · open seat
Richard Blumenthal vs Leora Levy
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.6 (10th pctile) to D+29.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.6
80% CI: D +5.6 → D +29.6 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 19 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+13.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 19 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | Long Island University+1For · Policy | 1,004 · A | NEUTRAL | D +14.83 tracked | — | 51 · 26 |
| Oct 24 | Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 1,004 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | 51 |
| Oct 22 | Quinnipiac University+2For · Quinnipiac University | 1,879 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.454 tracked | +1.1aligned | 56 · 41 |
| Oct 20 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 53 · 40 |
| Oct 20 | Quinnipiac University+1 | 1,879 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.454 tracked | +1.1aligned | 56 |
| Oct 19 | Emerson College | 1,000 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 54 |
| Oct 12 | Fabrizo, Lee & Associates | 1,200 · LV | R-LEAN | — | — | 49 · 44 |
| Oct 11 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 1,200 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | +3.9decoupled | 49 |
| Sep 20 | Western New England University | 766 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 51 · 37 |
| Sep 18 | Quinnipiac University+2For · Quinnipiac University | 1,911 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.454 tracked | +1.1aligned | 57 · 40 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 5 candidates with no endorsements yetDRichard Blumenthal0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLeora Levy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPLeora R. Levy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RThemis Klarides0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RPeter Lumaj0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28Richard BlumenthalS0CT00177 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Leora LevyS2CT00314 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$43.8K
Debts
$925.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
CIVICOM$21.8K
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$17.8K
CASTLE HARLAN INC.$11.6K
AXIOM INVESTORS$8.7K
PRIVET CAPITAL LLC$7.8K
Themis KlaridesS2CT00306 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Peter Lumaj
Receipts
$599.9K
Disburse
$599.9K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
TV / movies / music$12.7K
TV / movies / music · $12.7K
- Paramount Homes Management INC · $12.7K
Individuals $12.7K · PACs $0
Top contributors
PARAMOUNT HOMES MANAGEMENT INC$12.7K
EURO CONSTRUCTION$8.7K
EURO CONTRACTING$8.7K
TRINITY CHURCH$8.7K
NYU LANGONE$8.7K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$7.1M
D side
$472.2K · 7%
R side
$6.6M · 93%
Top spender
CONNECTICUT PATRIOT…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONNECTICUT PATRIOTS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $5.7M | 81% | against Richard Blumenthal |
| LEADERSHIP NOW super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.1M | 15% | for Themis Klarides |
| VOTEVETS super pac · boosts D
| D | $472.1K | 7% | against Leora Levy |
| RESTORATION PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $450.0K | 6% | against Richard Blumenthal |
| FRONTIERS OF FREEDOM ACTION, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $16.0K | 0% | against Richard Blumenthal |
| ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $31.93 | 0% | for Richard Blumenthal |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 31
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 28
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified13 / 19deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks