Races · Senate · 2022 · CT
Senate · class II · open seat

Richard Blumenthal vs Leora Levy

Lean D · 13 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1292d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 13 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 13 results

13 of 13 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/26/2022Long Island University0.27(D+14.8)1004A
weight 0.273 scored polls+3
  • weight 0.27
    Aggregation weight is 0.27 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • adult sample
    Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections.
  • 1292d old
    Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Richard Blumenthal 51.0 · Leora Levy 26.0pollarch
10/23/2022Quinnipiac University1.00(D+1.9)1879LV
1295d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1295d old
    Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,879
    Sample size of 1,879 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Richard Blumenthal 56.0 · Leora Levy 41.0pollarch
10/21/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)1000LV
1297d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1297d old
    Poll was fielded 1297 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Richard Blumenthal 53.0 · Leora Levy 40.0pollarch
10/13/2022Fabrizo, Lee & Associates1.00R1200LV
no scored polls1305d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1305d old
    Poll was fielded 1305 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Richard Blumenthal 49.0 · Leora Levy 44.0pollarch
9/21/2022Western New England University1.00766RV
no scored polls1327d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1327d old
    Poll was fielded 1327 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Richard Blumenthal 51.0 · Leora Levy 37.0pollarch
9/19/2022Quinnipiac University1.00(D+1.9)1911LV
1329d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1329d old
    Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,911
    Sample size of 1,911 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Richard Blumenthal 57.0 · Leora Levy 40.0pollarch
9/9/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)1000LV
1339d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1339d old
    Poll was fielded 1339 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Richard Blumenthal 49.0 · Leora Levy 36.0pollarch
7/27/2022McLaughlin & Associates1.00500LV
no scored polls1383d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1383d old
    Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Richard Blumenthal 45.0 · Leora Levy 33.0pollarch
7/27/2022McLaughlin & Associates1.00500LV
no scored polls1383d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1383d old
    Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Richard Blumenthal 45.0 · Themis Klarides 34.0pollarch
7/27/2022McLaughlin & Associates1.00500LV
no scored polls1383d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1383d old
    Poll was fielded 1383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Richard Blumenthal 41.0pollarch
5/11/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)1000RV
1460d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1460d old
    Poll was fielded 1460 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Richard Blumenthal 52.0 · Leora Levy 36.0pollarch
5/11/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)1000RV
1460d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1460d old
    Poll was fielded 1460 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Richard Blumenthal 50.0 · Themis Klarides 40.0pollarch
5/11/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)1000RV
1460d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1460d old
    Poll was fielded 1460 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Richard Blumenthal 51.0 · Peter Lumaj 35.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28
Total IE spending
$8.0M
For candidates
$682K
Against candidates
$7.3M
Latest filing: 11/28/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
$42 for · $6.6M against
$29K for · $655K against
Cash on hand
$44K
Total raised (cycle)
$3.1M
Total spent
$3.1M
Debts
$925K
Source: FEC
$653K for · $0 against
Peter Lumaj (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$600K
Total spent
$600K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Mar 4 +18.0
DDHQ Safe D Jul 20 +18.0
The Economist Safe D Sep 7 +18.0
538 Safe D Jun 30 +18.0
Inside Elections Safe D Apr 1 +18.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Mar 1 +18.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (10/26/2022) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 1392d
  • 7/11/2022 Likely D D+14.0 via polls