Races · Senate · 2022 · CO
Senate · class II · open seat

Michael Bennet vs Joe O'Dea

Lean D · 29 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1280d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 29 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 29 results

29 of 29 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/7/2022co/efficient0.71R(R+5.4)856LV
historical bias R+5.4pt1280d old+3
  • historical bias R+5.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1280d old
    Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.4pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 51.0 · Joe O'Dea 43.0pollarch
11/5/2022Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)1983LV
1282d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+4
  • 1282d old
    Poll was fielded 1282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,983
    Sample size of 1,983 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Michael Bennet 51.0 · Joe O'Dea 44.0 · Brian Peotter 2.0pollarch
11/1/2022The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1084LV
historical bias R+3.4pt1286d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1286d old
    Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 48.0 · Joe O'Dea 46.0 · Brian Peotter 2.0pollarch
10/29/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)1000LV
1289d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 1289d old
    Poll was fielded 1289 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • university-sponsored: The Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by The Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Michael Bennet 49.0 · Joe O'Dea 42.0 · Brian Peotter 2.0pollarch
10/25/2022co/efficient0.71R(R+5.4)826LV
historical bias R+5.4pt1293d old+3
  • historical bias R+5.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1293d old
    Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.4pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 50.0 · Joe O'Dea 34.0pollarch
10/19/2022CU Boulder/YouGov1.00709LV
no scored polls1299d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1299d old
    Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 56.0 · Joe O'Dea 42.0pollarch
10/18/2022Civiqs0.99L(D+2.5)600LV
bias D+2.5pt1300d old+2
  • bias D+2.5pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt.
  • 1300d old
    Poll was fielded 1300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 54.0 · Joe O'Dea 41.0pollarch
10/11/2022Global Strategy Group1.00800LV
no scored polls1307d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1307d old
    Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 49.0 · Joe O'Dea 38.0 · Brian Peotter 7.0pollarch
10/6/2022Marist College1.00(D+2.4)1127RV
bias D+2.4pt1312d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 1312d old
    Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Michael Bennet 48.0 · Joe O'Dea 41.0pollarch
10/6/2022Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)1005LV
1312d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 1312d old
    Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Michael Bennet 50.0 · Joe O'Dea 41.0 · Brian Peotter 3.0pollarch
9/27/2022OnMessage, Inc. *3.36neutral(R+0.2)600LV
1321d oldR+4.1pt vs editors+3
  • 1321d old
    Poll was fielded 1321 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 3.36
    Aggregation weight is 3.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Michael Bennet 46.0 · Joe O'Dea 45.0pollarch
9/26/2022Keating Research/Magellan Strategies1.001060LV
no scored polls1322d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1322d old
    Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Denver Post
    Commissioned by The Denver Post, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Michael Bennet 46.0 · Joe O'Dea 36.0pollarch
9/24/2022The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1078LV
historical bias R+3.4pt1324d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1324d old
    Poll was fielded 1324 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 49.0 · Joe O'Dea 43.0 · Brian Peotter 4.0pollarch
9/19/2022Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)1000LV
1329d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1329d old
    Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Michael Bennet 46.0 · Joe O'Dea 36.0pollarch
8/31/2022Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)782unknown
1348d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 1348d old
    Poll was fielded 1348 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Michael Bennet 46.0 · Joe O'Dea 35.0 · Brian Peotter 7.0pollarch
8/25/2022The Tarrance Group3.77(D+1.1)600LV
3 scored polls1354d old+4
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1354d old
    Poll was fielded 1354 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 3.77
    Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Michael Bennet 48.0 · Joe O'Dea 47.0pollarch
8/19/2022The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1087LV
historical bias R+3.4pt1360d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1360d old
    Poll was fielded 1360 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 47.0 · Joe O'Dea 42.0 · Brian Peotter 5.0pollarch
7/26/2022McLaughlin & Associates1.00500LV
no scored polls1384d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1384d old
    Poll was fielded 1384 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 48.0 · Joe O'Dea 40.0pollarch
7/26/2022McLaughlin & Associates1.00500LV
no scored polls1384d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1384d old
    Poll was fielded 1384 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 44.0pollarch
6/8/2022Global Strategy Group1.00400RV
no scored polls1432d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1432d old
    Poll was fielded 1432 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Michael Bennet 49.0 · Joe O'Dea 36.0pollarch
6/8/2022Global Strategy Group1.00400RV
no scored polls1432d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1432d old
    Poll was fielded 1432 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Michael Bennet 50.0 · Ron Hanks 37.0pollarch
6/8/2022Global Strategy Group1.00800RV
no scored polls1432d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1432d old
    Poll was fielded 1432 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Michael Bennet 49.0pollarch
4/8/2022Blueprint Polling1.00L612unknown
no scored polls1493d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1493d old
    Poll was fielded 1493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Michael Bennet 46.0 · Gino Campana 40.0pollarch
1/13/2022Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)630LV
1578d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 1578d old
    Poll was fielded 1578 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Michael Bennet 45.0pollarch
10/24/2021Global Strategy Group1.00400RV
no scored polls1659d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1659d old
    Poll was fielded 1659 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Michael Bennet 52.0 · Ron Hanks 34.0pollarch
10/24/2021Global Strategy Group1.00400RV
no scored polls1659d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1659d old
    Poll was fielded 1659 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Michael Bennet 48.0 · Eli Bremer 35.0pollarch
9/12/2021co/efficient0.71R(R+5.4)742LV
historical bias R+5.4pt1701d old+3
  • historical bias R+5.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1701d old
    Poll was fielded 1701 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.4pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Michael Bennet 40.0 · Eli Bremer 32.0pollarch
6/23/2021Global Strategy Group1.00800RV
no scored polls1782d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1782d old
    Poll was fielded 1782 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Michael Bennet 51.0 · Lauren Boebert 38.0pollarch
6/23/2021Global Strategy Group1.00800RV
no scored polls1782d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1782d old
    Poll was fielded 1782 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Michael Bennet 48.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 24 total
Michael Bennet (D)
24 endorsements · source
Elected officials (14)
  • Betsy Markey — former U.S. Representative for Colorado's 4th congressional district (2009–2011) [ 11 ]
  • Bill Ritter — 41st Governor of Colorado (2007–2011) [ 11 ]
  • Dan Baer — former U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE (2013–2017) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020 [ 10 ]
  • Ed Perlmutter — former U.S. Representative for Colorado's 7th congressional district (2007–2023) [ 11 ]
  • Federico Peña — 12th U.S. Secretary of Transportation (1993–1997) and 8th United States Secretary of Energy (1997–1998) [ 11 ]
  • Jared Polis — 43rd Governor of Colorado (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Colorado's 2nd congressional district (2009–2019) [ 11 ]
  • Joe Neguse — U.S. Representative for Colorado's 2nd congressional district (2019–present) [ 11 ]
  • John Hickenlooper — U.S. Senator from Colorado (2021–present) and 42nd governor of Colorado (2011–2019) [ 11 ]
  • John Salazar — former U.S. Representative for Colorado's 3rd congressional district (2005–2011) [ 11 ]
  • Ken Salazar — U.S. Ambassador to Mexico (2021–2025), 50th U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2009–2013), and former U.S. Senator from Colorado (2005–2009) [ 11 ]
  • Mark Udall — former U.S. Senator from Colorado (2009–2015) [ 11 ]
  • Polly Baca — former state senator from the 25th district (1979–1987) [ 11 ]
  • Roy Romer — 39th Governor of Colorado (1987–1999) [ 11 ]
  • Tim Wirth — former U.S. Senator from Colorado (1987–1993) [ 11 ]
Organizations / unions (5)
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 12 ]
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 14 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 17 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 18 ]
  • Population Connection Action Fund — [ 19 ]
Other (5)
  • End Citizens United — [ 13 ]
  • Giffords — [ 15 ]
  • Jewish Dems — [ 16 ]
  • Let America Vote — [ 13 ]
  • Pro-Israel America — [ 20 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-13
Total IE spending
$87.6M
For candidates
$16.0M
Against candidates
$71.6M
Latest filing: 12/13/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
$10.3M for · $57.7M against
Cash on hand
$101K
Total raised (cycle)
$10.2M
Total spent
$10.1M
Debts
$3.9M
Source: FEC
$5.7M for · $9.0M against
Cash on hand
$741K
Total raised (cycle)
$20.7M
Total spent
$20.5M
Debts
$375K
Source: FEC
$0 for · $4.9M against
Cash on hand
$1
Total raised (cycle)
$166K
Total spent
$166K
Debts
$23K
Source: FEC
Gino Campana (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$999K
Total spent
$999K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Eli Bremer (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$2K
Total raised (cycle)
$503K
Total spent
$501K
Debts
$68K
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Lean D Aug 18 +3.5
DDHQ Likely D Jul 20 +9.0
The Economist Likely D Sep 7 +9.0
538 Likely D Aug 18 +9.0
Inside Elections Likely D Jun 29 +9.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D Mar 1 +9.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/7/2022) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 1392d
  • 7/11/2022 Likely D D+10.7 via polls