Races · Senate · 2022 · Colorado
Senate · class III · open seat
Michael Bennet vs Joe O'Dea
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 95% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.9 (10th pctile) to D+22.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.1
80% CI: R +1.9 → D +22.1 · win prob 95%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 39 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+14.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 39 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 22 | co/efficientFor · co/efficient | 856 · LV | R-LEAN | R +5.413 tracked | -3.4r lean | 51 · 43 |
| Nov 4, 22 | Data for Progress+2 | 1,983 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.151 tracked | +0.8aligned | 51 · 44 |
| Nov 4, 22 | co/efficient | 856 · unknown | R-LEAN | R +5.413 tracked | -3.4r lean | 51 · 43 |
| Nov 3, 22 | Data for Progress+1 | 1,983 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +1.151 tracked | +0.8aligned | 51 · 44 |
| Oct 31, 22 | The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group | 1,084 · LV | R-LEAN | R +3.553 tracked | -2.6r lean | 48 · 46 |
| Oct 30, 22 | Trafalgar Group | 1,084 · unknown | R-LEAN | R +2.16 tracked | -4.1r lean | 48 · 46 |
| Oct 28, 22 | Emerson College+2For · The Emerson College Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 49 · 42 |
| Oct 27, 22 | Emerson College | 1,000 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 51 · 43 |
| Oct 24, 22 | co/efficientFor · co/efficient | 826 · LV | R-LEAN | R +5.413 tracked | -3.4r lean | 50 · 34 |
| Oct 23, 22 | co/efficient | 826 · unknown | R-LEAN | R +5.413 tracked | -3.4r lean | 50 · 34 |
Endorsements · 24 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet24
Endorsements tracked
Michael Bennet24 · 100%
Joe O'Dea0 · 0%
Total24
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMichael Bennet24 endorsers
Most notable · Bill Ritter · 41st Governor of Colorado (2007–2011)
Elected officials14
Federal 9State 5Local 0
Elected officials · 14
- Bill Ritter · 41st Governor of Colorado (2007–2011)
- Jared Polis · 43rd Governor of Colorado (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Colorado's 2nd congressional district (2009–2019)
- John Hickenlooper · U.S. Senator from Colorado (2021–present) and 42nd governor of Colorado (2011–2019)
- Roy Romer · 39th Governor of Colorado (1987–1999)
- Ken Salazar · U.S. Ambassador to Mexico (2021–2025), 50th U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2009–2013), and former U.S. Senator from Colorado (2005–2009)
- Mark Udall · former U.S. Senator from Colorado (2009–2015)
- Polly Baca · former state senator from the 25th district (1979–1987)
- Tim Wirth · former U.S. Senator from Colorado (1987–1993)
- Betsy Markey · former U.S. Representative for Colorado's 4th congressional district (2009–2011)
- Dan Baer · former U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE (2013–2017) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020
- Ed Perlmutter · former U.S. Representative for Colorado's 7th congressional district (2007–2023)
- Federico Peña · 12th U.S. Secretary of Transportation (1993–1997) and 8th United States Secretary of Energy (1997–1998)
- Joe Neguse · U.S. Representative for Colorado's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)
- John Salazar · former U.S. Representative for Colorado's 3rd congressional district (2005–2011)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- Council for a Livable World
- Feminist Majority PAC
- League of Conservation Voters
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Population Connection Action Fund
Other5
Other · 5
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Jewish Dems
- Let America Vote
- Pro-Israel America
RJoe O'Dea0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LBrian Peotter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRon Hanks0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-13Joe O'DeaS2CO00241 ↗
Receipts
$10.2M
Disburse
$10.1M
Cash on hand
$100.9K
Debts
$3.9M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR$68.8K
CEI$47.7K
TRANSWEST$26.6K
HENSEL PHELPS$22.6K
KIEWIT$21.2K
Michael BennetS0CO00211 ↗
Receipts
$20.7M
Disburse
$20.5M
Cash on hand
$740.8K
Debts
$374.8K
Top industries
Securities & investment$102.8K
Securities & investment · $102.8K
- Blackstone · $41.6K
- Apollo Global Management · $34.3K
- Blackrock · $26.9K
Individuals $102.8K · PACs $0
Education$50.2K
Education · $50.2K
- University of Colorado · $25.4K
- University of Denver · $24.8K
Individuals $50.2K · PACs $0
Internet$26.2K
Internet · $26.2K
- Google · $26.2K
Individuals $26.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$41.6K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$34.3K
ARNOLD & PORTER$33.3K
DISH NETWORK$31.4K
WILMERHALE$29.1K
Ron HanksS2CO00233 ↗
Receipts
$165.5K
Disburse
$165.5K
Cash on hand
$0.95
Debts
$23.4K
Top industries
Real estate$1.0K
Real estate · $1.0K
- Colwell Banker Realty · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
NORTH WELD PRODUCE CO$2.9K
PERICLE COMMUNICATIONS$2.9K
ANARK CORP$2.9K
BOOKCLIFF SOFTWARE LLC$2.9K
APOLOGIA$2.9K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$82.6M
D side
$63.4M · 77%
R side
$19.3M · 23%
Top spender
LCV VICTORY FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCV VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $28.3M | 34% | against Joe O'Dea |
| AMERICAN POLICY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $18.9M | 23% | for Joe O'Dea |
| 53 PEAKS super pac · boosts D
| D | $11.6M | 14% | against Joe O'Dea |
| GIFFORDS PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $10.5M | 13% | against Joe O'Dea |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.5M | 5% | for Michael Bennet |
| DEMOCRATIC COLORADO super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.0M | 5% | against Ron Hanks |
| STRAIGHT TALK POLITICS PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $3.2M | 4% | against Joe O'Dea |
| FAIR SHARE ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $468.5K | 1% | for Michael Bennet |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts D
| D | $158.6K | 0% | for Michael Bennet |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D5
Likely D · 5 raters
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Aug 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 28
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 28
Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- The Cook Political Report · Aug 17
The Cook Political Report
Lean DDDHQ
Likely DThe Economist
Likely D538
Likely DInside Elections
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified25 / 39deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-13
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks