Races · Senate · 2022 · Arkansas
Senate · class III · open seat
Arkansas Senate
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+32.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.1 (10th pctile) to R+20.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +32.1
80% CI: R +44.1 → R +20.1 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | John Boozman +34.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 557 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | — |
| Oct 16 | Hendrix College | 974 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | — |
| Sep 11 | Hendrix CollegeFor · Talk Business & Politics | 835 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 31 · 44 |
| Sep 6 | Echelon Insights+2 | 382 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 32 · 56 |
Endorsements · 9 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetREPJohn Boozman9 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials6
Federal 6State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Mitch McConnell · former Senate Majority Leader from Kentucky (1985–present)
- Tom Cotton · U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present) and U.S. representative for Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015)
- Burgess Owens · U.S. representative from Utah's 4th congressional district (2021–present)
- Madison Cawthorn · U.S. representative from North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023)
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders · 31st White House press secretary (2017–2019) and candidate in the 2022 Arkansas gubernatorial election
Other3
Other · 3
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions
- National Right to Life
- Pro-Israel America
DEMNatalie James0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-05-16John BoozmanS0AR00150 ↗
Receipts
$6.8M
Disburse
$6.8M
Cash on hand
$892.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$28.8K
Crop production · $28.8K
- Tyson Foods · $28.8K
Individuals $28.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
TYSON FOODS$28.8K
GENERAL ATOMICS$19.6K
WALMART$18.2K
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS$18.1K
STEPHENS INC.$18.1K
Natalie James
Receipts
$81.5K
Disburse
$81.3K
Cash on hand
$215.31
Debts
$5.9K
Top industries
Oil & gas$1.0K
Oil & gas · $1.0K
- Petroleum Resources · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$1.0K
TV / movies / music · $1.0K
- Warner Bros · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$757.22
Lawyers / law firms · $757.22
- Mitchell Blackstock Law Firm · $500
- The Law Office of Mark a. Sampson P.C. · $257.22
Individuals $757.22 · PACs $0
Health professionals$375
Health professionals · $375
- Hospital · $375
Individuals $375 · PACs $0
Top contributors
PETROLEUM RESOURCES$1.0K
WARNER BROS$1.0K
SATISFIED MIND LLC$500
INVENTOR$500
MITCHELL BLACKSTOCK LAW FIRM$500
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.5M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$4.5M · 100%
Top spender
AMERICAN DREAM FEDE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN DREAM FEDERAL ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.8M | 63% | for John Boozman |
| CRYPTO INNOVATION super pac · boosts R
| R | $712.4K | 16% | for John Boozman |
| NATIONAL WILDLIFE FEDERATION ACTION FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $365.2K | 8% | for John Boozman |
| HEARTLAND RESURGENCE super pac · boosts R
| R | $286.7K | 6% | for John Boozman |
| AMERICAN COLLEGE OF RADIOLOGY ASSOCIATION PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $178.3K | 4% | for John Boozman |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 3
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 31
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 28
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-05-16
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks