Races · Senate · 2022 · AR
Senate · class II · open seat

Natalie James vs John Boozman

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Safe R — · 2 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1336d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 2 results

2 of 2 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
9/12/2022Hendrix College1.00—835—LV
no scored polls1336d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1336d old
    Poll was fielded 1336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
John Boozman 44.0 · Natalie James 31.0pollarch
9/7/2022Echelon Insights1.00—(R+1.0)382—RV
n=3821341d old+3
  • n=382
    Sample size of 382 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical.
  • 1341d old
    Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
John Boozman 56.0 · Natalie James 32.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 14 total
John Boozman (R)
14 endorsements · source
Elected officials (6)
  • Burgess Owens — U.S. representative from Utah's 4th congressional district (2021–present) [ 15 ]
  • Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States (2017–2021) [ 10 ]
  • Madison Cawthorn — U.S. representative from North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023) [ 15 ]
  • Mitch McConnell — former Senate Majority Leader from Kentucky (1985–present) [ 11 ]
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders — 31st White House press secretary (2017–2019) and candidate in the 2022 Arkansas gubernatorial election [ 9 ]
  • Tom Cotton — U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present) and U.S. representative for Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015) [ 9 ]
Other (8)
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions — [ 12 ]
  • National Right to Life — [ 13 ]
  • Pro-Israel America — [ 14 ]
  • [ 16 ] — Scheller, former lt. colonel [ 16 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-05-16
Total IE spending
$4.5M
For candidates
$4.5M
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 5/16/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
John Boozman (R)
$4.5M for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$892K
Total raised (cycle)
$6.8M
Total spent
$6.8M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Natalie James (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$215
Total raised (cycle)
$81K
Total spent
$81K
Debts
$6K
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Mar 4 — -18.0 —
DDHQ Safe R Jul 20 — -18.0 —
The Economist Safe R Sep 7 — -18.0 —
538 Safe R Jun 30 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Apr 1 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Mar 1 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 45 months ago (9/12/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 7/11/2022 Safe R via pvi