Races · Senate · 2022 · Alabama

Senate · class III · open seat

Will Boyd vs Katie Britt

← Alaska Senate Arkansas Senate →

Safe RR +40.2 forecast· 2 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Boyd (D)
99% Britt (R)
Win probability
Will Boyd1% (D)
Katie Britt99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +40.2
80% CIR+52.2 → R+28.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +40.2 · 80% CI R+52.2 → R+28.2
Actual result R+35.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+40.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+52.2 (10th pctile) to R+28.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +40.2

80% CI: R +52.2 → R +28.2 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+35.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
51015202530354045505560BRITT 57.5BOYD 27.3SOPHOCLEUS 6.0OCT '22OCT '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 28	Cygnal	616 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.954 tracked	+1.2aligned	28 · 57
Oct 27	Cygnal	616 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.954 tracked	+1.2aligned	28 · 57

Endorsements · 119 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

4Boyd · 3%
Britt · 97%115
Endorsements tracked
Will Boyd4 · 3%
Katie Britt115 · 97%
Total119
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RKatie Britt115 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)

Elected officials92

Federal 26State 63Local 1

Other12

Organizations7

Celebrity2

Newspapers2

DWill Boyd4 endorsers

Most notable · United Mine Workers of America · s of America

Other3

Organizations1

LJohn Sophocleus0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-17

Katie BrittS2AL00145 ↗

Receipts

$11.5M

Disburse

$9.7M

Cash on hand

$1.7M

Debts

$30.3K

Top industries

Securities & investment$31.9K

Health professionals$26.1K

Education$25.7K

Top contributors

GREAT SOUTHERN WOOD PRESERVING$49.5K

BEASLEY ALLEN$42.9K

HARBERT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION$38.7K

BLACKSTONE$31.9K

PROTECTIVE LIFE CORPORATION$28.1K

Will BoydOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$134.6K

Disburse

$121.5K

Cash on hand

$13.1K

Debts

$5.4K

Top industries

Crop production$2.9K

Top contributors

EXCEL PROFESSIONAL MANAGEMENT$6.2K

INDEPENDENT ADVANTAGE$5.8K

DAVID PERSON MEDIA, LLC$5.8K

ST. MARK MB CHURCH$5.6K

JEFFERSON COUNTY SHERRIFF'S OF$3.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$28.5M

D side

$5.9M · 21%

R side

$22.5M · 79%

Top spender

AMERICAN DREAM FEDE…

For / against split

Against Britt $5.9M

For Britt $22.5M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
AMERICAN DREAM FEDERAL ACTION	R	$10.2M	36%	for Katie Britt
ALABAMA CONSERVATIVES FUND	R	$8.3M	29%	for Katie Britt
CONSERVATIVE OUTSIDER PAC INC	D	$4.7M	16%	against Katie Britt
ALABAMA CHRISTIAN CONSERVATIVES	R	$3.5M	12%	for Katie Britt
ALABAMA PATRIOTS PAC	D	$1.1M	4%	against Katie Britt

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Mar 3

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe R

Sep 6

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

Mar 31

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Feb 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified1 / 2deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-17

Endorsements119 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks