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Races · Senate · 2022 · Alaska
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Senate · class III · open seat

Pat Chesbro vs Kelly Tshibaka

Alabama Senate →
Safe RR +31.5 forecast· 4 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Chesbro (D)
99% Tshibaka (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +31.5 · 80% CI R+43.5 → R+19.5
Actual result Lisa Murkowski +9.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+31.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.5 (10th pctile) to R+19.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +31.5
80% CI: R +43.5 → R +19.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used4
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultLisa Murkowski +9.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

051015202530354045505560MURKOWSKI 53.7TSHIBAKA 44.6TSHIBAKA 43.0CHESBRO 13.0KELLEY 1.0SEP '22SEP '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 4 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 20Alaska Survey Research1,276 · unknownNEUTRAL—+5.3decoupled—
Sep 25Alaska Survey Research1,282 · unknownNEUTRAL—+5.3decoupled—
Sep 10Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+11,050 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned13 · 35
Sep 7Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research500 · unknownNEUTRAL———

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 5 candidates with no endorsements yet
REPLisa Murkowski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPKelly C. Tshibaka0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKelly Tshibaka0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPat Chesbro0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBuzz Kelley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-05
Kelly TshibakaS2AK00127 ↗
Receipts
$6.0M
Disburse
$6.0M
Cash on hand
$51.3K
Debts
$1.8K
Top industries
Govt employees$16.2K
Real estate$9.2K
Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR$108.0K
PARTS LIFE INC$20.8K
PETRO 49 INC$20.6K
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$17.4K
STATE OF ALASKA$16.2K
Lisa MurkowskiS4AK00099 ↗
Receipts
$9.3M
Disburse
$9.7M
Cash on hand
$657.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$69.8K
Oil & gas$22.9K
Electric utilities$19.6K
Top contributors
TRIBE$48.4K
KKR$42.1K
CAPITAL GROUP$28.2K
TRIDENT SEAFOODS$27.8K
BLACKROCK$27.7K
Pat ChesbroS2AK00226 ↗
Receipts
$188.6K
Disburse
$180.9K
Cash on hand
$7.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$2.9K
Computers / electronics$2.8K
Education$2.8K
Govt employees$1.8K
Internet$1.1K
Top contributors
VETEANS ADMINSTRAION$2.9K
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN FRANCISCO$2.8K
GREENFIELD COMMUNITY COLLEGE$2.8K
CAPTEL INC.$2.5K
THE FAMILY HEALTH CENTER$1.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$8.8M
D side
$7.2M · 82%
R side
$1.6M · 18%
Top spender
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUND
For / against split
Against Tshibaka $7.2M
Against Chesbro $9.9K
For Tshibaka $1.6M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUNDD$7.2M82%against Kelly Tshibaka
PA LAWYER FUNDR$2.0M23%for Lisa Murkowski
ALASKA FIRSTR$1.4M16%for Kelly Tshibaka
ALASKANS FOR BRISTOL BAY ACTIONR$1.2M14%for Lisa Murkowski
ALASKANS FOR L.I.S.A. (LEADERSHIP IN A STRONG ALASKA)R$408.0K5%for Lisa Murkowski
EDF ACTION VOTESR$338.7K4%for Lisa Murkowski
KEEPING AMERICA GREAT PACD$119.9K1%against Lisa Murkowski
PATRIOT FREEDOM PAC INCR$93.6K1%for Kelly Tshibaka
GOA VICTORY FUNDR$16.2K0%for Kelly Tshibaka
AMERICAN LIBERTY FUNDR$15.0K0%for Kelly Tshibaka

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Mar 3
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 6
FiveThirtyEight
Safe R
Oct 23
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 31
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks