Races · Senate · 2022 · AK
Senate · class II · open seat

Pat Chesbro vs Lisa Murkowski

AL Senate →
Likely R — · 3 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1337d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
9/11/2022Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L1050—LV
no scored polls1337d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1337d old
    Poll was fielded 1337 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Lisa Murkowski 35.0 · Kelly Tshibaka 43.0 · Pat Chesbro 13.0 · Buzz Kelley 1.0pollarch
4/21/2022Alaska Survey Research1.00—1208—LV
no scored polls1480d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1480d old
    Poll was fielded 1480 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Lisa Murkowski 55.0 · Kelly Tshibaka 45.0pollarch
5/25/2021Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)1023—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt1811d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 1811d old
    Poll was fielded 1811 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Elvi Gray-Jackson 4.0 · Lisa Murkowski 39.0 · Sarah Palin 1.0 · Kelly Tshibaka 12.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-05
Total IE spending
$13.0M
For candidates
$5.6M
Against candidates
$7.4M
Latest filing: 12/5/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
$1.6M for · $7.2M against
Cash on hand
$51K
Total raised (cycle)
$6.0M
Total spent
$6.0M
Debts
$2K
Source: FEC
Lisa Murkowski (R)
$4.0M for · $183K against
Cash on hand
$658K
Total raised (cycle)
$9.3M
Total spent
$9.7M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Pat Chesbro (D)
$0 for · $10K against
Cash on hand
$8K
Total raised (cycle)
$189K
Total spent
$181K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Elvi Gray-Jackson (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$162K
Total spent
$162K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Mar 4 — -18.0 —
DDHQ Safe R Jul 20 — -18.0 —
The Economist Safe R Sep 7 — -18.0 —
FiveThirtyEight Safe R Oct 24 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Apr 1 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Mar 1 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 45 months ago (9/11/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely R via pvi