Races · Senate · 2020 · Wyoming
Senate · class II · open seat
Merav Ben-David vs Cynthia Lummis
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+25) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+46.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+58.8 (10th pctile) to R+34.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +46.8
80% CI: R +58.8 → R +34.8 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+46.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | University of Wyoming | 614 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 26 · 56 |
Endorsements · 24 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet6
18
Endorsements tracked
Merav Ben-David6 · 25%
Cynthia Lummis18 · 75%
Total24
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RCynthia Lummis18 endorsers
Most notable · Bill Cassidy · U.S. senator (LA)
Elected officials10
Federal 9State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Bill Cassidy · U.S. senator (LA)
- John Barrasso · U.S. senator (WY)
- Mike Enzi · U.S. senator (WY)
- Mike Lee · U.S. senator (UT)
- Rand Paul · U.S. senator (KY) and candidate for President in 2016
- Ted Cruz · U.S. senator (TX) and candidate for President in 2016
- Michele Bachmann · former U.S. representative (MN) and 2012 presidential candidate
- Jason Chaffetz · former U.S. representative (UT)
- Mark Meadows · former U.S. representative (R-NC) and White House Chief of Staff
- Senate Conservatives Fund
Other8
Other · 8
- Citizens United
- Club for Growth
- Concerned Women for America
- Foster Friess · businessman and 2018 Wyoming gubernatorial election candidate
- Gun Owners of America
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- Students for Trump
- United States Chamber of Commerce
DMerav Ben-David6 endorsers
Most notable · Pete Muldoon · Mayor of Jackson, Wyoming
Other5
Other · 5
- Democratic Socialists of America · Southeast Wyoming chapter
- Gary Trauner · member of the Teton County School District Number 1 Board of Trustees (2006–2008) and businessman
- Our Revolution · Casper chapter
- Richard Newton Holwill · American Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Ecuador (1988–1989)
- University of Wyoming · ment Chair in the Department of Economics at the University of Wyoming
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 1
- Pete Muldoon · Mayor of Jackson, Wyoming
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-17Cynthia LummisS0WY00137 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$114.5K
Debts
$156.6K
Top industries
Health professionals$5.6K
Health professionals · $5.6K
- Family Services Clinic · $5.6K
Individuals $5.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
NA$111.5K
GABY FOUNDATION$11.2K
THE SINCLAIR COMPANIES$11.2K
INVARIANT$8.3K
CROEL REDI MIX$7.7K
Merav Ben-DavidS0WY00152 ↗
Receipts
$559.6K
Disburse
$545.3K
Cash on hand
$14.3K
Debts
$3.8K
Top industries
Education$8.8K
Education · $8.8K
- Mit · $4.5K
- University of Wyoming · $4.4K
Individuals $8.8K · PACs $0
Health professionals$1.5K
Health professionals · $1.5K
- Boulder Abortion Clinic · $1.5K
Individuals $1.5K · PACs $0
Govt employees$1.4K
Govt employees · $1.4K
- State of Alaska · $1.4K
Individuals $1.4K · PACs $0
Internet$1.2K
Internet · $1.2K
- Google · $1.2K
Individuals $1.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
WESTERN ECOSYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY INC.$5.0K
PATAGONIA$5.0K
MIT$4.5K
UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING$4.4K
ACCORD$2.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.8M
D side
$10 · 0%
R side
$2.8M · 100%
Top spender
SENATE CONSERVATIVE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $2.3M | 81% | for Cynthia Lummis |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $524.2K | 18% | for Cynthia Lummis |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $6.5K | 0% | for Cynthia Lummis |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR GUN RIGHTS INC PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $660 | 0% | for Cynthia Lummis |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Merav Ben-David |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 28
- DDHQ · Nov 2
- 538 · Nov 1
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-17
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks