Races · Senate · 2020 · West Virginia

Senate · class II · open seat

Paula Jean Swearengin vs Shelley Moore Capito

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Safe RR +31.6 forecast· 2 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Swearengin (D)
99% Capito (R)
Win probability
Paula Jean Swearengin1% (D)
Shelley Moore Capito99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +31.6
80% CIR+43.6 → R+19.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +31.6 · 80% CI R+43.6 → R+19.6
Actual result R+43.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+22) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+31.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.6 (10th pctile) to R+19.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +31.6

80% CI: R +43.6 → R +19.6 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+43.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
510152025303540455055CAPITO 53.0SWEARENGIN 33.0MORAN 5.0OCT '20OCT '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 8, 20	Research America Inc.For · WV MetroNews	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	33 · 53
Jun 13, 17	Public Policy Polling	762 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	48

Endorsements · 8 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

6Swearengin · 75%
Capito · 25%2
Endorsements tracked
Paula Jean Swearengin6 · 75%
Shelley Moore Capito2 · 25%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DPaula Jean Swearengin6 endorsers

Most notable · Brand New Congress

Other6

RShelley Moore Capito2 endorsers

Most notable · Capito · 80–90%

Other2

LDavid Moran0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-07

Shelley Moore CapitoS4WV00159 ↗

Receipts

$4.9M

Disburse

$3.2M

Cash on hand

$2.5M

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$24.0K

Lawyers / law firms$19.4K

Top contributors

THE GEO GROUP$26.0K

BLACKSTONE$24.0K

SULLIVAN & CROMWELL LLP$19.4K

FIRSTENERGY$16.7K

FIRST ENERGY$14.9K

Paula Jean SwearenginS0WV00215 ↗

Receipts

$2.1M

Disburse

$2.0M

Cash on hand

$66.0K

Debts

Top industries

Education$9.2K

Internet$7.5K

Real estate$3.8K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$7.5K

PSYCHIATRIST$5.6K

NOT-EMPLOYED$5.4K

NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY$4.8K

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON$4.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$22.8K

D side

$10 · 0%

R side

$22.8K · 100%

Top spender

CLEARPATH ACTION FU…

For / against split

For Swearengin $10

Against Swearengin $325.99

For Capito $22.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC.	R	$19.8K	87%	for Shelley Moore Capito
WEST VIRGINIANS FOR LIFE INC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$1.4K	6%	for Shelley Moore Capito
CARE ACTION	R	$1.0K	4%	for Shelley Moore Capito
WINNING FOR WOMEN, INC. PAC	R	$352.18	2%	for Shelley Moore Capito
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	R	$304.51	1%	for Shelley Moore Capito
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Paula Jean Swearengin

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Oct 28

DDHQ

Safe R

Nov 2

538

Safe R

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Safe R

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified2 / 2deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-07

Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks