Races · Senate · 2020 · WV

Senate · class II · open seat

Paula Jean Swearengin vs Shelley Moore Capito

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Safe R — · 2 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2039d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 2 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:2 of 2 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/9/2020	Research America Inc.	1.00	—	450	—	LV	no scored polls2039d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2039d old Poll was fielded 2039 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Shelley Moore Capito 53.0 · Paula Jean Swearengin 33.0 · David Moran 5.0	poll arch
6/14/2017	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	762	—	unknown	3252d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 3252d old Poll was fielded 3252 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Shelley Moore Capito 48.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 8 total

Paula Jean Swearengin (D)

6 endorsements · source

Other (6)

Brand New Congress — [ 12 ]
Ojeda — 40–50%
Robb — 30–40%
Sierra Club — [ 13 ]
Students for Gun Legislation
Swearengin — 30–40%

Shelley Moore Capito (R)

2 endorsements · source

Other (2)

Capito — 80–90%
Maggie's List — [ 3 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-07

Total IE spending

$23K

For candidates

$23K

Against candidates

$326

Latest filing: 12/7/2020
Source: FEC Schedule E

Shelley Moore Capito (R)

$22K for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$2.5M

Total raised (cycle)

$4.9M

Total spent

$3.2M

Debts

Source: FEC

$20K for CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. Super PAC
$1K for WEST VIRGINIANS FOR LIFE INC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE PAC
$1K for CARE ACTION PAC
$352 for WINNING FOR WOMEN, INC. PAC PAC
$305 for NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND PAC

Paula Jean Swearengin (D)

$10 for · $326 against

Cash on hand

$66K

Total raised (cycle)

$2.1M

Total spent

$2.0M

Debts

Source: FEC

$326 against WEST VIRGINIANS FOR LIFE INC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE PAC
$10 for SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Super PAC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Oct 29	—	-18.0	—
DDHQ	Safe R	Nov 3	—	-18.0	—
538	Safe R	Nov 2	—	-18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe R	Oct 28	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 2	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 68 months ago (10/9/2020) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

7/6/2020 Safe R via pvi