Races · Senate · 2020 · TN

Senate · class II · open seat

Marquita Bradshaw vs Bill Hagerty

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Likely R — · 4 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2016d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 4 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 4 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:4 of 4 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/1/2020	Swayable	0.49	L(D+7.7)	431	—	LV	historical bias D+7.7ptweight 0.49+3 historical bias D+7.7pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+7.7pt — a measurable house effect. weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 2016d old Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bill Hagerty 61.0 · Marquita Bradshaw 39.0	poll arch
10/22/2020	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	610	—	LV	2026d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 2026d old Poll was fielded 2026 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Hagerty 56.0 · Marquita Bradshaw 36.0	poll arch
1/30/2020	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	—	RV	bias R+2.4pt2292d old+3 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 2292d old Poll was fielded 2292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Hagerty 55.0 · James Mackler 33.0	poll arch
1/30/2020	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	—	RV	bias R+2.4pt2292d old+3 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 2292d old Poll was fielded 2292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Manny Sethi 46.0 · James Mackler 35.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-13

Total IE spending

$8.8M

For candidates

$3.2M

Against candidates

$5.5M

Latest filing: 11/13/2020
Source: FEC Schedule E

Manny Sethi (R)

$3.0M for · $3.5M against

Cash on hand

$696

Total raised (cycle)

$5.9M

Total spent

$5.9M

Debts

$2.4M

Source: FEC

$2.9M for PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Super PAC
$2.7M against STANDING WITH CONSERVATIVES Super PAC
$750K against AMERICA ONE Super PAC
$20K against A BETTER TOMORROW FOR TENNESSEE PAC
$8K for THE NEW AMERICAN POPULIST PAC Super PAC

Bill Hagerty (R)

$240K for · $2.0M against

Cash on hand

$55K

Total raised (cycle)

$15.8M

Total spent

$15.7M

Debts

$3.0M

Source: FEC

$1.9M against CONSERVATIVE OUTSIDER PAC Super PAC
$234K for STANDING WITH CONSERVATIVES Super PAC
$70K against CONSERVATIVE OUTSIDERS PAC Super PAC
$8K against THE NEW AMERICAN POPULIST PAC Super PAC
$5K for NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND PAC

Marquita Bradshaw (D)

$52K for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$16K

Total raised (cycle)

$1.6M

Total spent

$1.6M

Debts

Source: FEC

$46K for THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PAC Super PAC
$5K for INDIVISIBLE ACTION Super PAC
$439 for GREENPEACE, INC. PAC
$225 for INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC. PAC
$10 for SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Super PAC

James Mackler (?)

$0 for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$17K

Total raised (cycle)

$2.3M

Total spent

$2.3M

Debts

Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Oct 29	—	-18.0	—
DDHQ	Safe R	Nov 3	—	-18.0	—
538	Safe R	Nov 2	—	-18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe R	Oct 28	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 2	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 67 months ago (11/1/2020) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (4 changes)

5/3/2026 Likely R via pvi held 2014d
10/27/2020 Safe R R+20.0 via polls held 83d
8/5/2020 Likely R via pvi held 30d
7/6/2020 Safe R R+16.5 via polls