Races · Senate · 2020 · Tennessee
Senate · class II · open seat
Marquita Bradshaw vs Bill Hagerty
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.8 (10th pctile) to R+15.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.8
80% CI: R +39.8 → R +15.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+27.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Swayable+1For · Swayable | 431 · LV | D-LEAN | D +7.817 tracked | +2.5d lean | 39 · 61 |
| Oct 21 | CygnalFor · Cygnal | 610 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 36 · 56 |
| Oct 20 | Cygnal | 610 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +1.954 tracked | +1.2aligned | 36 · 56 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRBill Hagerty0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMarquita Bradshaw0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-13Bill HagertyS0TN00169 ↗
Receipts
$15.8M
Disburse
$15.7M
Cash on hand
$55.1K
Debts
$3.0M
Top industries
Govt employees$33.5K
Govt employees · $33.5K
- State of Tennessee · $33.5K
Individuals $33.5K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$20.0K
Securities & investment · $20.0K
- Apollo Global Management · $20.0K
Individuals $20.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ROGERS GROUP, INC.$68.5K
SELF- EMPLOYED$48.9K
HCA$38.6K
HALL CAPITAL$35.6K
STATE OF TENNESSEE$33.5K
Marquita BradshawS0TN00342 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$16.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$7.9K
Education · $7.9K
- Vanderbilt University · $4.6K
- Cate School · $3.3K
Individuals $7.9K · PACs $0
Internet$6.7K
Internet · $6.7K
- Google · $6.7K
Individuals $6.7K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$3.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $3.0K
- Held Law Firm · $3.0K
Individuals $3.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
GOOGLE$6.7K
VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY$4.6K
LHP CAPITAL LLC$3.8K
ANALOG DEVICES INC.$3.3K
CATE SCHOOL$3.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.3M
D side
$2.1M · 90%
R side
$240.4K · 10%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVE OUTSID…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVE OUTSIDER PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.9M | 84% | against Bill Hagerty |
| STANDING WITH CONSERVATIVES super pac · boosts R
| R | $234.5K | 10% | for Bill Hagerty |
| CONSERVATIVE OUTSIDERS PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $70.0K | 3% | against Bill Hagerty |
| THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $46.2K | 2% | for Marquita Bradshaw |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $5.3K | 0% | for Bill Hagerty |
| INDIVISIBLE ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.9K | 0% | for Marquita Bradshaw |
| GREENPEACE, INC. pac · boosts D
| D | $438.59 | 0% | for Marquita Bradshaw |
| INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC. pac · boosts D
| D | $225 | 0% | for Marquita Bradshaw |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Marquita Bradshaw |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 28
- DDHQ · Nov 2
- 538 · Nov 1
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-13
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks