Races · Senate · 2020 · South Dakota
Senate · class II · open seat
Dan Ahlers vs Mike Rounds
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+32.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.0 (10th pctile) to R+20.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +32.0
80% CI: R +44.0 → R +20.0 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+31.5 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | Nielson Brothers Polling+1 | 479 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +19.73 tracked | — | 39 · 56 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRMike Rounds0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDan Ahlers0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-13Mike RoundsS4SD00049 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$9.6K
Govt employees · $9.6K
- State of South Dakota · $9.6K
Individuals $9.6K · PACs $0
Commercial banks$9.3K
Commercial banks · $9.3K
- US Bank · $9.3K
Individuals $9.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SANFORD HEALTH$23.6K
AVERA HEALTH$13.0K
THE EVERIST COMPANY$11.2K
AVAIRPROS$11.2K
QUICKEN LOANS$9.9K
Dan Ahlers
Receipts
$273.8K
Disburse
$253.1K
Cash on hand
$20.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$1.1K
Education · $1.1K
- Augustana University · $1.1K
Individuals $1.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
THE DASCHLE GROUP$3.8K
LIVE ON STAGE$3.8K
USDA$2.0K
SANFORD$1.3K
PROTECT ENGINEERING & MANUFACT$1.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$17.1K
D side
$15.4K · 90%
R side
$1.7K · 10%
Top spender
THE LINCOLN PROJECT
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE LINCOLN PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $15.4K | 90% | against Mike Rounds |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2K | 7% | for Mike Rounds |
| HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF) super pac · boosts R
| R | $506.5 | 3% | for Mike Rounds |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 28
- DDHQ · Nov 2
- 538 · Nov 1
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-13
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks