Jeff Merkley vs Jo Rae Perkins
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Lean D
Polling average
All polls · 1 results
| End | Pollster | Weight | Lean | Sample | MoE | Pop | Trust signals | Results | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/29/2020 | Civiqs/Daily Kos | 0.91 | L(D+4.0) | 944 | — | LV | 2049d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
| Jeff Merkley 55.0 · Jo Rae Perkins 35.0 | pollarch |
Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.
Endorsements
Source · Wikipedia · 14 totalOrganizations / unions (6)
- American Federation of Teachers — Oregon [ 5 ]
- Council for a Livable World — [ 6 ]
- Humane Society of the United States — Legislative Fund [ 9 ]
- League of Conservation Voters — [ 10 ]
- Oregon Education Association — [ 12 ]
- SEIU — Oregon State Council [ 14 ]
Other (4)
- Democracy for America — [ 7 ]
- Human Rights Campaign — [ 8 ]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 11 ]
- Sierra Club — [ 15 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
- Oregon Right to Life — PAC [ 25 ]
Other (3)
- Alek Skarlatos — Oregon Army National Guard veteran and 2020 candidate for Oregon's 4th congressional district [ 25 ]
- Mike Nearman — District 23 [ 25 ]
- Oregon's 21st House district — Oregon's 21st House district [ 25 ]
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Source: FEC Schedule E
- $1K for CARE ACTION PAC
- $115 for PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES Super PAC
- $10 for SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Super PAC
- $8 for ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND Super PAC
- $115 against PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES Super PAC
- $12 for RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PAC PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
5 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | Oct 29 | — | +18.0 | — |
| DDHQ | Safe D | Nov 3 | — | +18.0 | — |
| 538 | Safe D | Nov 2 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Oct 28 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | Nov 2 | — | +18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
Rating history (3 changes)
- 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 2037d
- 10/4/2020 Safe D D+20.0 via polls held 90d
- 7/6/2020 Lean D via pvi