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Races · Senate · 2020 · Oregon
Senate · class II · open seat

Jeff Merkley vs Jo Rae Perkins

← Oklahoma SenateRhode Island Senate →
Safe DD +24.9 forecast· 1 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Merkley (D)
1% Perkins (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +24.9 · 80% CI D+12.9 → D+36.9
Actual result D+17.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.9 (10th pctile) to D+36.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.9
80% CI: D +12.9 → D +36.9 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used1
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+17.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

3540455055MERKLEY 53.0PERKINS 37.0SEP '20SEP '20SEP '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 1 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Sep 28Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos944 · LVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked-0.9aligned55 · 35

Endorsements · 14 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
10Merkley · 71%
Perkins · 29%4
DJeff Merkley10 endorsers
Most notable · American Federation of Teachers · Oregon
Organizations6
Other4
RJo Rae Perkins4 endorsers
Most notable · Oregon Right to Life · PAC
Other3
Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Jeff MerkleyS8OR00207 ↗
Receipts
$6.4M
Disburse
$4.3M
Cash on hand
$3.8M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$14.5K
Education$9.7K
Computers / electronics$6.2K
Top contributors
STATE OF OREGON$14.5K
BLUE BASIN BEEF$11.2K
BAD ROBOT PRODUCTIONS$11.2K
OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY$9.7K
OHSU$9.5K
Jo Rae PerkinsS4OR00156 ↗
Receipts
$142.9K
Disburse
$117.2K
Cash on hand
$25.9K
Debts
$7.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.3K
D side
$1.2K · 99%
R side
$12.44 · 1%
Top spender
CARE ACTION
For / against split
For Merkley $1.1K
Against Perkins $115.05
For Perkins $12.44
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CARE ACTIOND$1.0K79%for Jeff Merkley
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$230.118%for Jeff Merkley
RIGHT TO LIFE/OREGON PACR$12.441%for Jo Rae Perkins
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$101%for Jeff Merkley
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUNDD$7.751%for Jeff Merkley

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 28
DDHQ
Safe D
Nov 2
538
Safe D
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements14 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks