Races · Senate · 2020 · OK
Senate · class II · open seat

Abby Broyles vs Jim Inhofe

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Safe R — · 7 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2028d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 7 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 7 results

7 of 7 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/20/2020SoonerPoll0.36—(D+11.3)5466—LV
weight 0.364 scored polls+5
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2028d old
    Poll was fielded 2028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=5,466
    Sample size of 5,466 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Jim Inhofe 56.0 · Abby Broyles 37.0pollarch
9/20/2020Amber Integrated0.43L(D+7.8)500—LV
weight 0.432058d old+3
  • weight 0.43
    Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 2058d old
    Poll was fielded 2058 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+8.8pt vs editors
    Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jim Inhofe 46.0 · Abby Broyles 30.0pollarch
9/8/2020SoonerPoll0.36—(D+11.3)486—LV
weight 0.364 scored polls+4
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2070d old
    Poll was fielded 2070 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jim Inhofe 57.0 · Abby Broyles 33.0pollarch
7/30/2020DFM Research0.65L(D+6.1)572—LV
3 scored polls2110d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2110d old
    Poll was fielded 2110 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jim Inhofe 50.0 · Abby Broyles 34.0pollarch
6/4/2020Amber Integrated0.43L(D+7.8)500—LV
weight 0.432166d old+3
  • weight 0.43
    Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 2166d old
    Poll was fielded 2166 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+8.8pt vs editors
    Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jim Inhofe 54.0 · Generic Democrat 34.0pollarch
3/8/2020Amber Integrated0.43L(D+7.8)500—LV
weight 0.432254d old+3
  • weight 0.43
    Aggregation weight is 0.43 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 2254d old
    Poll was fielded 2254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+8.8pt vs editors
    Across 13 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jim Inhofe 57.0 · Abby Broyles 31.0pollarch
2/17/2020Abby Broyles1.00———unknown
no scored polls2274d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2274d old
    Poll was fielded 2274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • n unknown
    Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.
Jim Inhofe 56.0 · Abby Broyles 44.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 14 total
Generic Democrat (D)
7 endorsements · source
Other (7)
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • National Organization for Women — [ 16 ]
  • [ 17 ] — ma Building Trades [ 17 ]
Jim Inhofe (R)
7 endorsements · source
Elected officials (3)
  • Donald Trump — President of the United States [ 5 ]
  • Frank Lucas — U.S. representative from Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district [ 6 ]
  • Kevin Stitt — Governor of Oklahoma [ 7 ]
Other (4)
  • 40 — 50%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-02
Total IE spending
$39K
For candidates
$10K
Against candidates
$29K
Latest filing: 11/2/2020
Source: FEC Schedule E
Jim Inhofe (R)
$9K for · $29K against
Cash on hand
$324K
Total raised (cycle)
$4.7M
Total spent
$5.0M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Abby Broyles (D)
$606 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$40K
Total raised (cycle)
$2.1M
Total spent
$2.1M
Debts
$19K
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Oct 29 — -18.0 —
DDHQ Safe R Nov 3 — -18.0 —
538 Safe R Nov 2 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Oct 28 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Nov 2 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 68 months ago (10/20/2020) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 7/6/2020 Safe R R+19.3 via polls