Races · Senate · 2020 · Oklahoma
Senate · class II · open seat
Abby Broyles vs Jim Inhofe
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+34.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+46.7 (10th pctile) to R+22.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +34.7
80% CI: R +46.7 → R +22.7 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 7 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+30.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 7 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | SoonerPoll+3 | 5,466 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +11.34 tracked | +10.1d lean | 37 · 56 |
| Sep 19 | Amber Integrated+1 | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | D +7.87 tracked | +8.8d lean | 30 · 46 |
| Sep 7 | SoonerPoll+2For · News9 | 486 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +11.34 tracked | +10.1d lean | 33 · 57 |
| Jul 29 | DFM Research | 572 · LV | D-LEAN | D +6.13 tracked | — | 34 · 50 |
| Jun 3 | Amber Integrated+1 | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | D +7.87 tracked | +8.8d lean | 34 · 54 |
| Mar 7 | Amber Integrated+1 | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | D +7.87 tracked | +8.8d lean | 31 · 57 |
| Feb 16 | Abby Broyles | — · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | 44 · 56 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet1
3
Endorsements tracked
Generic Democrat1 · 25%
Jim Inhofe3 · 75%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJim Inhofe3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · President of the United States
Elected officials3
Federal 2State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Donald Trump · President of the United States
- Kevin Stitt · Governor of Oklahoma
- Frank Lucas · U.S. representative from Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district
DGeneric Democrat1 endorser
Most notable · National Organization for Women
Other1
Other · 1
- National Organization for Women
DAbby Broyles0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-02Jim InhofeS4OK00083 ↗
Receipts
$4.7M
Disburse
$5.0M
Cash on hand
$323.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Abby BroylesS0OK00370 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$40.0K
Debts
$19.1K
Top industries
Education$15.5K
Education · $15.5K
- University of Oklahoma · $9.1K
- Oklahoma City University · $6.4K
Individuals $15.5K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$11.2K
Lawyers / law firms · $11.2K
- National Litigation Law Group · $11.2K
Individuals $11.2K · PACs $0
Real estate$8.1K
Real estate · $8.1K
- Price Family Properties · $8.1K
Individuals $8.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DENNEY & BARRETT P.C.$11.2K
NATIONAL LITIGATION LAW GROUP$11.2K
SPARCBIO LLC$11.2K
CROWE & DUNLEVY$9.7K
UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA$9.1K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$38.5K
D side
$29.2K · 76%
R side
$9.3K · 24%
Top spender
ONE COUNTRY FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONE COUNTRY FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $17.5K | 45% | against Jim Inhofe |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $9.3K | 24% | for Jim Inhofe |
| THE LINCOLN PROJECT super pac · boosts D
| D | $7.7K | 20% | against Jim Inhofe |
| PATAGONIA INC. pac · boosts D
| D | $3.3K | 9% | against Jim Inhofe |
| UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $668.48 | 2% | for Abby Broyles |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Abby Broyles |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 28
- DDHQ · Nov 2
- 538 · Nov 1
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified7 / 7deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-02
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks