Races · Senate · 2020 · New Mexico
Senate · class II · open seat
Ben Ray Luján vs Mark Ronchetti
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.6 (10th pctile) to D+24.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.6
80% CI: D +0.6 → D +24.6 · win prob 98%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 5 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+6.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | Research & Polling Inc.+1 | 1,180 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.76 tracked | -5.3noisy | 52 · 44 |
| Oct 16 | GBAO Strategies | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 52 · 41 |
| Sep 30 | Public Policy Polling+1 | 886 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 51 · 41 |
| Sep 1 | Research & Polling Inc.+1 | 1,123 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.76 tracked | -5.3noisy | 49 · 40 |
| Jun 12 | Public Policy Polling+1For · RealClearPolitics | 740 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 48 · 34 |
Endorsements · 24 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet24
Endorsements tracked
Ben Ray Luján24 · 100%
Mark Ronchetti0 · 0%
Total24
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DBen Ray Luján24 endorsers
Most notable · Nancy Pelosi · Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (CA-12)
Elected officials9
Federal 5State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Nancy Pelosi · Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (CA-12)
- Diane Denish · former lieutenant governor of New Mexico
- Michelle Lujan Grisham · Governor of New Mexico
- Amy Klobuchar · U.S. senator (MN)
- Martin Heinrich · U.S. senator (NM)
- Tom Udall · U.S. senator (NM)
- Patricia Madrid · former attorney general of New Mexico
- Maggie Toulouse Oliver · Secretary of State of New Mexico
- Deb Haaland · U.S. representative (NM)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- Council for a Livable World
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- Humane Society of the United States · Legislative Fund
- J Street PAC
- League of Conservation Voters
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Professional Fire Fighters Association · Association
Other7
Other · 7
- Brady Campaign
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- Sierra Club
RMark Ronchetti0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LBob Walsh0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23Mark RonchettiS0NM00124 ↗
Receipts
$4.0M
Disburse
$4.0M
Cash on hand
$10.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
L & M SERVICE GROUP INC$22.4K
PETTIGREW & ASSOCIATES$8.8K
LRD INC$8.6K
WESTERN ASSURANCE$8.4K
YATES INDUSTRIES LLC$8.4K
Bob Walsh
Receipts
$8.3K
Disburse
$6.9K
Cash on hand
$1.4K
Debts
$1.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$200
Lawyers / law firms · $200
- The Turner Law Firm · $100
- Golightly Law · $100
Individuals $200 · PACs $0
Top contributors
THE TURNER LAW FIRM$100
GOLIGHTLY LAW$100
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$546.0K
D side
$528.6K · 97%
R side
$17.4K · 3%
Top spender
SMP
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMP super pac · boosts D
| D | $528.5K | 97% | against Mark Ronchetti |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $11.4K | 2% | for Mark Ronchetti |
| FAMILY POLICY ALLIANCE pac · boosts R
| R | $6.0K | 1% | for Mark Ronchetti |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $115.05 | 0% | against Mark Ronchetti |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 28
- DDHQ · Nov 2
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- 538 · Nov 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe D538
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified5 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks