Races · Senate · 2020 · NM
Senate · class II · open seat

Ben Ray Luján vs Mark Ronchetti

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Tilt D — · 6 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2019d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 6 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D

tilt-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 6 results

6 of 6 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/29/2020Research & Polling Inc. *1.86neutral(R+0.7)1180—LV
2019d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2019d old
    Poll was fielded 2019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 1.86
    Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Ben Ray Luján 52.0 · Mark Ronchetti 44.0 · Bob Walsh 3.0pollarch
10/17/2020GBAO Strategies1.00L600—LV
no scored polls2031d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2031d old
    Poll was fielded 2031 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ben Ray Luján 52.0 · Mark Ronchetti 41.0 · Bob Walsh 5.0pollarch
10/1/2020Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)886—LV
2047d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 2047d old
    Poll was fielded 2047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ben Ray Luján 51.0 · Mark Ronchetti 41.0 · Bob Walsh 3.0pollarch
9/2/2020Research & Polling Inc. *1.86neutral(R+0.7)1123—LV
2076d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2076d old
    Poll was fielded 2076 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 1.86
    Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Ben Ray Luján 49.0 · Mark Ronchetti 40.0 · Bob Walsh 4.0pollarch
6/13/2020Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)740—unknown
2157d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 2157d old
    Poll was fielded 2157 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ben Ray Luján 48.0 · Mark Ronchetti 34.0pollarch
1/6/2020Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)967—RV
2316d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 2316d old
    Poll was fielded 2316 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ben Ray Luján 54.0 · Gavin Clarkson 35.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 26 total
Ben Ray Luján (D)
26 endorsements · source
Elected officials (9)
  • Amy Klobuchar — U.S. senator (MN) [ 24 ]
  • Deb Haaland — U.S. representative (NM) [ 12 ]
  • Diane Denish — former lieutenant governor of New Mexico [ 26 ]
  • Maggie Toulouse Oliver — Secretary of State of New Mexico [ 7 ]
  • Martin Heinrich — U.S. senator (NM) [ 22 ]
  • Michelle Lujan Grisham — Governor of New Mexico [ 15 ] [ 16 ]
  • Nancy Pelosi — Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (CA-12) [ 12 ] [ 25 ]
  • Patricia Madrid — former attorney general of New Mexico [ 26 ]
  • Tom Udall — U.S. senator (NM) [ 22 ]
Organizations / unions (8)
  • American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees — [ 27 ]
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 31 ]
  • Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — [ 32 ]
  • Humane Society of the United States — Legislative Fund [ 37 ]
  • J Street PAC — [ 38 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 39 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 42 ]
  • Professional Fire Fighters Association — Association [ 28 ]
Other (9)
  • Brady Campaign — [ 30 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 34 ]
  • Giffords — [ 35 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 36 ]
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 40 ]
  • National Organization for Women — [ 41 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 43 ]
  • [ 29 ] — Protection Voters [ 29 ]
  • [ 33 ] — emand Universal Healthcare [ 33 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23
Total IE spending
$576K
For candidates
$47K
Against candidates
$529K
Latest filing: 11/23/2020
Source: FEC Schedule E
Mark Ronchetti (R)
$17K for · $529K against
Cash on hand
$11K
Total raised (cycle)
$4.0M
Total spent
$4.0M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Gavin Clarkson (R)
$30K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$7K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.3M
Total spent
$1.3M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Bob Walsh (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$1K
Total raised (cycle)
$8K
Total spent
$7K
Debts
$1K
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Oct 29 — +18.0 —
DDHQ Safe D Nov 3 — +18.0 —
538 Likely D Nov 2 — +9.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Oct 28 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D Nov 2 — +9.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 67 months ago (10/29/2020) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Tilt D via pvi held 2127d
  • 7/6/2020 Likely D D+14.0 via polls