Races · Senate · 2020 · NJ
Senate · class II · open seat

Cory Booker vs Rik Mehta

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Lean D — · 7 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2016d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 7 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 7 results

7 of 7 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/1/2020Research Co.1.01—(D+1.5)450—LV
2016d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 2016d old
    Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Booker 55.0 · Rik Mehta 32.0pollarch
10/26/2020Swayable0.49L(D+7.7)363—LV
historical bias D+7.7ptweight 0.49+4
  • historical bias D+7.7pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+7.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • weight 0.49
    Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • n=363
    Sample size of 363 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.1pt — wider than typical.
  • 2022d old
    Poll was fielded 2022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Booker 61.0 · Rik Mehta 39.0pollarch
10/24/2020Rutgers University1.00—851—LV
no scored polls2024d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2024d old
    Poll was fielded 2024 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Booker 61.0 · Rik Mehta 31.0pollarch
10/13/2020Stockton University1.00—721—LV
no scored polls2035d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2035d old
    Poll was fielded 2035 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Booker 57.0 · Rik Mehta 32.0pollarch
9/7/2020Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)500—LV
2071d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 2071d old
    Poll was fielded 2071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Cory Booker 52.0 · Rik Mehta 28.0pollarch
4/19/2020Monmouth University1.00—(D+5.0)635—RV
historical bias D+5.0pt2212d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2212d old
    Poll was fielded 2212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Booker 55.0 · Rik Mehta 32.0pollarch
4/19/2020Monmouth University1.00—(D+5.0)635—RV
historical bias D+5.0pt2212d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2212d old
    Poll was fielded 2212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Booker 58.0 · Hirsh Singh 33.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 36 total
Cory Booker (D)
36 endorsements · source
Elected officials (13)
  • Bayonne — avis, mayor of Bayonne [ 11 ]
  • Brian P. Stack — state senator, District 33, Mayor of Union City [ 11 ]
  • East Newark — mayor of East Newark [ 11 ]
  • Gabe Rodriguez — mayor of West New York [ 11 ]
  • Guttenberg — mayor of Guttenberg [ 11 ]
  • Harrison — fe, mayor of Harrison [ 11 ]
  • Kearny — tos, mayor of Kearny [ 11 ]
  • Nicholas Sacco — state senator, District 32, Mayor of North Bergen , former assistant superintendent of North Bergen School District [ 11 ]
  • Ravi Bhalla — mayor of Hoboken [ 11 ]
  • Sandra Bolden Cunningham — state senator, District 31 [ 11 ]
  • Secaucus — nelli, mayor of Secaucus [ 11 ]
  • Steve Fulop — mayor of Jersey City [ 11 ]
  • Weehawken — urner, mayor of Weehawken [ 11 ]
Organizations / unions (5)
  • Coalition to Stop Gun Violence — [ 13 ]
  • Humane Society of the United States — Legislative Fund [ 16 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 17 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — Action Fund [ 20 ]
  • New Jersey Democratic State Committee — Hudson County's chapter of the New Jersey Democratic State Committee [ 11 ]
Other (18)
  • Angela McKnight — assemblywoman, District 31 [ 11 ]
  • Angelica M. Jimenez — assemblywoman, District 32 [ 11 ]
  • Annette Chaparro — assemblywoman, District 33 [ 11 ]
  • Brady Campaign — [ 12 ]
  • Cornel West — philosopher, political activist, and social critic [ 23 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 14 ]
  • Giffords — [ 15 ]
  • Hudson County — Democratic Socialists of America [ 24 ]
  • Hudson County Executive — ty Executive [ 11 ]
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 18 ]
  • National Organization for Women — [ 19 ]
  • Nicholas Chiaravalloti — assemblyman , District 31 [ 11 ]
  • Pedro Mejia — assemblyman, District 32
  • Planned Parenthood — [ 21 ]
  • Raj Mukherji — assemblyman, District 33 [ 11 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 22 ]
  • [ 11 ] — Coleman, Hudson County Register [ 11 ]
  • [ 25 ] — ssive Democrats of America [ 25 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Total IE spending
$3K
For candidates
$2K
Against candidates
$115
Latest filing: 11/20/2020
Source: FEC Schedule E
Rik Mehta (R)
$1K for · $115 against
Cash on hand
$553
Total raised (cycle)
$587K
Total spent
$586K
Debts
$317K
Source: FEC
Cory Booker (D)
$1K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$5.9M
Total raised (cycle)
$8.3M
Total spent
$6.5M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Hirsh Singh (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$3K
Total raised (cycle)
$694K
Total spent
$691K
Debts
$27K
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Oct 29 — +18.0 —
DDHQ Safe D Nov 3 — +18.0 —
538 Safe D Nov 2 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Oct 28 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Nov 2 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 67 months ago (11/1/2020) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 2127d
  • 7/6/2020 Safe D D+24.0 via polls