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Races · Senate · 2020 · New Jersey
Senate · class II · open seat

Cory Booker vs Rik Mehta

Safe DD +27.2 forecast· 6 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Booker (D)
1% Mehta (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +27.2 · 80% CI D+15.2 → D+39.2
Actual result D+16.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.2 (10th pctile) to D+39.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +27.2
80% CI: D +15.2D +39.2 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used6
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+16.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

2530354045505560BOOKER 57.2MEHTA 33.1APR '20JUL '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 6 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 31Research Co.+1For · Research Co450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned55 · 32
Oct 25Swayable+2For · Swayable363 · LVD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean61 · 39
Oct 23Rutgers University851 · LVNEUTRAL61 · 31
Oct 12Stockton University721 · LVNEUTRAL57 · 32
Sep 6Emerson College+1500 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 28
Apr 18Monmouth University+1For · Monmouth University635 · RVD-LEAND +4.520 tracked+0.7aligned55 · 32

Endorsements · 34 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
34Booker · 100%
DCory Booker34 endorsers
Most notable · Bayonne · avis, mayor of Bayonne
Other16
Elected officials13
Federal 0State 3Local 10
Organizations5
RRik Mehta0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Rik MehtaS0NJ00217 ↗
Receipts
$586.7K
Disburse
$586.2K
Cash on hand
$553.01
Debts
$316.6K
Education$5.6K
Health professionals$5.6K
Securities & investment$2.8K
Govt employees$2.8K
Crop production$2.8K
TULARE/VA$5.6K
RUTGES UNIVERSITY$5.6K
NORWOOD HOSPITAL$5.6K
VILLA COLLINA$5.6K
UPTOWN ALLERGY & ASTHMA$5.6K
Cory BookerS4NJ00185 ↗
Receipts
$8.3M
Disburse
$6.5M
Cash on hand
$5.9M
Debts
$0
Air transport$39.0K
Lawyers / law firms$36.3K
Internet$18.4K
Insurance$14.5K
TV / movies / music$13.3K
UNITED AIRLINES$39.0K
LOWENSTEIN SANDLER LLP$21.1K
LYFT$18.4K
STANDARD INDUSTRIES, INC.$16.8K
KIRKLAND & ELLIS, LLP$15.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.6K
D side
$1.3K · 49%
R side
$1.3K · 51%
Top spender
CARE ACTION
For / against split
For Booker $1.1K
Against Mehta $115.05
For Mehta $1.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CARE ACTIOND$1.0K39%for Cory Booker
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PACR$825.6632%for Rik Mehta
FAMILY POLICY ALLIANCER$50019%for Rik Mehta
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$230.19%against Rik Mehta
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUNDD$24.41%for Cory Booker
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Cory Booker

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 28
DDHQ
Safe D
Nov 2
538
Safe D
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified6 / 6deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements34 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks