Races · Senate · 2020 · New Jersey
Senate · class II · open seat
Cory Booker vs Rik Mehta
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.2 (10th pctile) to D+39.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +27.2
80% CI: D +15.2 → D +39.2 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+16.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Research Co.+1For · Research Co | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 55 · 32 |
| Oct 25 | Swayable+2For · Swayable | 363 · LV | D-LEAN | D +7.817 tracked | +2.5d lean | 61 · 39 |
| Oct 23 | Rutgers University | 851 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 61 · 31 |
| Oct 12 | Stockton University | 721 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 57 · 32 |
| Sep 6 | Emerson College+1 | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 52 · 28 |
| Apr 18 | Monmouth University+1For · Monmouth University | 635 · RV | D-LEAN | D +4.520 tracked | +0.7aligned | 55 · 32 |
Endorsements · 34 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet34
Endorsements tracked
Cory Booker34 · 100%
Rik Mehta0 · 0%
Total34
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DCory Booker34 endorsers
Most notable · Bayonne · avis, mayor of Bayonne
Other16
Other · 16
- Angela McKnight · assemblywoman, District 31
- Angelica M. Jimenez · assemblywoman, District 32
- Annette Chaparro · assemblywoman, District 33
- Brady Campaign
- Cornel West · philosopher, political activist, and social critic
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Hudson County · Democratic Socialists of America
- Hudson County Executive · ty Executive
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- Nicholas Chiaravalloti · assemblyman, District 31
- Pedro Mejia · assemblyman, District 32
- Planned Parenthood
- Raj Mukherji · assemblyman, District 33
- Sierra Club
Elected officials13
Federal 0State 3Local 10
Elected officials · 13
- Bayonne · avis, mayor of Bayonne
- Brian P. Stack · state senator, District 33, Mayor of Union City
- East Newark · mayor of East Newark
- Gabe Rodriguez · mayor of West New York
- Guttenberg · mayor of Guttenberg
- Harrison · fe, mayor of Harrison
- Kearny · tos, mayor of Kearny
- Nicholas Sacco · state senator, District 32, Mayor of North Bergen, former assistant superintendent of North Bergen School District
- Ravi Bhalla · mayor of Hoboken
- Sandra Bolden Cunningham · state senator, District 31
- Secaucus · nelli, mayor of Secaucus
- Steve Fulop · mayor of Jersey City
- Weehawken · urner, mayor of Weehawken
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence
- Humane Society of the United States · Legislative Fund
- League of Conservation Voters
- Natural Resources Defense Council · Action Fund
- New Jersey Democratic State Committee · Hudson County's chapter of the New Jersey Democratic State Committee
RRik Mehta0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20Rik MehtaS0NJ00217 ↗
Receipts
$586.7K
Disburse
$586.2K
Cash on hand
$553.01
Debts
$316.6K
Top industries
Education$5.6K
Education · $5.6K
- Rutges University · $5.6K
Individuals $5.6K · PACs $0
Health professionals$5.6K
Health professionals · $5.6K
- Norwood Hospital · $5.6K
Individuals $5.6K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$2.8K
Securities & investment · $2.8K
- Two Sigma · $2.8K
Individuals $2.8K · PACs $0
Govt employees$2.8K
Govt employees · $2.8K
- US Dept of Veterans Affairs · $2.8K
Individuals $2.8K · PACs $0
Crop production$2.8K
Crop production · $2.8K
- Harris Farms · $2.8K
Individuals $2.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
TULARE/VA$5.6K
RUTGES UNIVERSITY$5.6K
NORWOOD HOSPITAL$5.6K
VILLA COLLINA$5.6K
UPTOWN ALLERGY & ASTHMA$5.6K
Cory BookerS4NJ00185 ↗
Receipts
$8.3M
Disburse
$6.5M
Cash on hand
$5.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Air transport$39.0K
Air transport · $39.0K
- United Airlines · $39.0K
Individuals $39.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$36.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $36.3K
- Lowenstein Sandler LLP · $21.1K
- Kirkland & Ellis, LLP · $15.1K
Individuals $36.3K · PACs $0
Internet$18.4K
Internet · $18.4K
- Lyft · $18.4K
Individuals $18.4K · PACs $0
Insurance$14.5K
Insurance · $14.5K
- Prudential · $14.5K
Individuals $14.5K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$13.3K
TV / movies / music · $13.3K
- Amc Networks, INC. · $13.3K
Individuals $13.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
UNITED AIRLINES$39.0K
LOWENSTEIN SANDLER LLP$21.1K
LYFT$18.4K
STANDARD INDUSTRIES, INC.$16.8K
KIRKLAND & ELLIS, LLP$15.1K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.6K
D side
$1.3K · 49%
R side
$1.3K · 51%
Top spender
CARE ACTION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARE ACTION pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0K | 39% | for Cory Booker |
| NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $825.66 | 32% | for Rik Mehta |
| FAMILY POLICY ALLIANCE pac · boosts R
| R | $500 | 19% | for Rik Mehta |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $230.1 | 9% | against Rik Mehta |
| ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $24.4 | 1% | for Cory Booker |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Cory Booker |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 28
- DDHQ · Nov 2
- 538 · Nov 1
- Inside Elections · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified6 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements34 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks