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Races · Senate · 2020 · Nebraska
Senate · class II · open seat

Chris Janicek vs Ben Sasse

← North Carolina SenateNew Hampshire Senate →
Safe RR +33.2 forecast· 2 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Janicek (D)
99% Sasse (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +33.2 · 80% CI R+45.2 → R+21.2
Actual result Ben Sasse ( inc. ) +38.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.2 (10th pctile) to R+21.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.2
80% CI: R +45.2 → R +21.2 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used2
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultBen Sasse ( inc. ) +38.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

5101520253035404550SASSE 47.7JANICEK 17.5JANICEK 17.1SIADEK 6.0OCT '20OCT '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 2 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 20CygnalFor · Cygnal625 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned18 · 47
Oct 19Cygnal625 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned47

Endorsements · 1 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
Sasse · 100%1
RBen Sasse1 endorser
Most notable · Club for Growth
Other1
DChris Janicek0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LGene Siadek0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMChris E. Janicek0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-27
Ben SasseS4NE00090 ↗
Receipts
$4.5M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$2.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$13.7K
Internet$11.4K
Insurance$11.0K
Govt employees$10.1K
Top contributors
CAPITAL GROUP$27.2K
DCI GROUP$26.0K
BLACKSTONE$13.7K
CENTERVIEW PARTNERS$12.2K
GOOGLE$11.4K
Chris JanicekOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$159.6K
Disburse
$141.4K
Cash on hand
$2.3K
Debts
$8.0K
Top industries
Real estate$1.0K
Top contributors
PSYCHIATRIST$2.8K
REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH SPECIALISTS$2.0K
WEITZ FAMILY FOUNDATION$1.5K
RANGE FILMS, LLC$1.3K
VNA$1.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$17.8K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$17.8K · 100%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…
For / against split
For Sasse $17.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$11.3K64%for Ben Sasse
CLUB FOR GROWTH PACR$6.1K34%for Ben Sasse
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR GUN RIGHTS INC PACR$4242%for Ben Sasse

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Oct 28
DDHQ
Safe R
Nov 2
538
Safe R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-27
Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks