Races · Senate · 2020 · Louisiana

Senate · class II · open seat

Adrian Perkins vs Bill Cassidy

← Kentucky Senate Massachusetts Senate →

Safe RR +22.7 forecast· 3 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Perkins (D)
99% Cassidy (R)
Win probability
Adrian Perkins1% (D)
Bill Cassidy99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +22.7
80% CIR+34.7 → R+10.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +22.7 · 80% CI R+34.7 → R+10.7
Actual result R+40.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.7 (10th pctile) to R+10.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +22.7

80% CI: R +34.7 → R +10.7 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	3
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+40.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
303540455055CASSIDY 41.6PERKINS 33.0AUG '20AUG '20SEP '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 3 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Sep 4	Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	38
Aug 11	A.L.G. Research	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	33 · 52
Mar 15	Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance	— · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	—	48

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RBill Cassidy0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DAdrian Perkins0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-02

Bill CassidyS4LA00107 ↗

Receipts

$7.4M

Disburse

$8.6M

Cash on hand

$1.6M

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$29.5K

Top contributors

MCNA DENTAL$37.9K

OCHSNER HEALTH SYSTEM$34.5K

CHARTER BROKERAGE$30.4K

KKR$29.5K

VIEMED$27.6K

Adrian PerkinsS0LA00386 ↗

Receipts

$2.8M

Disburse

$2.7M

Cash on hand

$154.9K

Debts

Top industries

Education$6.0K

Lawyers / law firms$5.6K

Govt employees$5.3K

Top contributors

CLEVELAND AVENUE, LLC$11.2K

KYU COLLECTIVE$10.0K

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA$6.0K

BRADLEY MURCHISON$5.8K

PRICE ENTERPRISES$5.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.0M

D side

$9.0K · 0%

R side

$2.0M · 100%

Top spender

LOUISIANA LEGACY PAC

For / against split

For Perkins $9.0K

For Cassidy $2.0M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
LOUISIANA LEGACY PAC	R	$2.0M	99%	for Bill Cassidy
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC.	R	$19.8K	1%	for Bill Cassidy
THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PAC	D	$9.0K	0%	for Adrian Perkins
KOCH INDUSTRIES, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (KOCHPAC)	R	$22.31	0%	for Bill Cassidy

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Oct 28

DDHQ

Safe R

Nov 2

538

Safe R

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Safe R

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified3 / 3deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-02

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks