Races · Senate · 2020 · Illinois

Senate · class II · open seat

Dick Durbin vs Mark Curran

← Iowa Senate Kansas Senate →

Safe DD +25.2 forecast· 4 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Durbin (D)
1% Curran (R)
Win probability
Dick Durbin99% (D)
Mark Curran1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +25.2
80% CID+13.2 → D+37.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +25.2 · 80% CI D+13.2 → D+37.2
Actual result D+16.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+13.2 (10th pctile) to D+37.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +25.2

80% CI: D +13.2 → D +37.2 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	4
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+16.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
152025303540455055DURBIN 50.8DURBIN 50.6CURRAN 28.4CURRAN 25.6WILSON 15.0OCT '20OCT '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 4 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 31, 20	Research Co.+1For · Research Co	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	52 · 30
Oct 31, 20	Victory Research+1	1,208 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.23 tracked	-9.1decoupled	51 · 26
Oct 30, 20	Victory Research	1,208 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.23 tracked	-9.1decoupled	—
Sep 3, 19	Ogden & Fry/Citizens for Willie Wilson	420 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	44

Endorsements · 9 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet

9Durbin · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Dick Durbin9 · 100%
Mark Curran0 · 0%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DDick Durbin9 endorsers

Most notable · AFL–CIO · s AFL–CIO

Other6

Organizations3

RMark Curran0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

IWillie Wilson0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DEMRichard J. Durbin0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

REPMark C. Curran0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Dick DurbinS6IL00151 ↗

Receipts

$7.3M

Disburse

$8.3M

Cash on hand

$1.1M

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$36.9K

Air transport$32.7K

Govt employees$22.8K

Top contributors

UNITED AIRLINES$32.7K

GENERAL DYNAMICS$24.6K

GROSVENOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT$24.6K

SIMMONS COOPER$24.4K

JENNER & BLOCK$22.8K

Mark CurranS0IL00543 ↗

Receipts

$376.6K

Disburse

$376.6K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$5.6K

Health professionals$4.0K

Top contributors

OPEN PANTRY FOOD MARTS OF WI$5.6K

THE FIDELITY GROUP LTD$5.6K

KOFFEL MEDICAL$4.0K

RIVERSIDE$2.8K

GLEASON & ASSOC. PC$2.8K

Willie WilsonOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$3.1M

Disburse

$3.1M

Cash on hand

$1.8M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$154.2K

D side

$240.1 · 0%

R side

$154.0K · 100%

Top spender

RESTORATION PAC

For / against split

For Durbin $125.05

Against Curran $115.05

Against Durbin $154.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
RESTORATION PAC	R	$154.0K	100%	against Dick Durbin
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$230.1	0%	for Dick Durbin
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Dick Durbin

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Oct 28

DDHQ

Safe D

Nov 2

538

Safe D

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Safe D

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified2 / 4deterministic

Polls flagged1needs review

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements47 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks