Races · Senate · 2020 · DE
Senate · class II · open seat

Chris Coons vs Lauren Witzke

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Lean D — · 1 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2051d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 1 results

1 of 1 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
9/27/2020University of Delaware1.00—847—LV
no scored polls2051d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2051d old
    Poll was fielded 2051 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Chris Coons 57.0 · Lauren Witzke 27.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 38 total
Chris Coons (D)
34 endorsements · source
Elected officials (5)
  • Jack Markell — Governor of Delaware (2009-2017), Treasurer of Delaware (1999-2009) [ 16 ]
  • Joe Biden — 47th Vice President of the United States (2009-2017), United States Senator from Delaware (1973-2009), Democratic nominee for the 2020 election [ 15 ]
  • Margaret Rose Henry — Member of the Delaware Senate from the 2nd District (1994-2019), Majority Leader of the Delaware Senate (2017-2019) [ 17 ]
  • Nicole Poore — Majority Leader of the Delaware Senate (2009-present), Member of the Delaware Senate from the district 12 (2013-present) [ 19 ]
  • Sarah McBride — LGBTQ rights activist, National Press Secretary of the Human Rights Campaign and candidate for the Delaware State Senate [ 20 ]
Organizations / unions (11)
  • AFL-CIO — e AFL-CIO [ 25 ]
  • American Bankers Association — [ 22 ]
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 24 ]
  • Humane Society of the United States — Legislative Fund [ 32 ]
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 33 ]
  • Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs — [ 34 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 35 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — Action Fund [ 38 ]
  • Working Families Party — [ 45 ]
  • [ 22 ] — re Bankers Association [ 22 ]
  • [ 25 ] — re Stonewall PAC [ 25 ]
Other (18)
  • 314 Action — [ 21 ]
  • Brady Campaign — [ 23 ]
  • Brand New Congress — [ 43 ]
  • Democratic Majority for Israel — [ 27 ]
  • Democratic Socialists of America — [ 44 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 28 ]
  • Everytown for Gun Safety — [ 29 ]
  • Giffords — [ 30 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 31 ]
  • John Kowalko — Member of the Delaware House of Representatives from the 25th district (2006-present) [ 42 ]
  • Moms Demand Action — [ 36 ]
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 37 ]
  • Planned Parenthood — [ 39 ]
  • Sean Lynn — Member of the Delaware House of Representatives from the 31st district (2014-present) [ 18 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 41 ]
  • Sunrise Movement — Newark Hub [ 44 ]
  • [ 26 ] — re Building and Construction Trades [ 26 ]
  • [ 40 ] — rael America [ 40 ]
Lauren Witzke (R)
4 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Paul Gosar — U.S. representative from Arizona (2011–present) [ 55 ]
Organizations / unions (1)
  • Republican State Committee of Delaware — [ 54 ]
Other (2)
  • Nick Fuentes — white nationalist activist [ 56 ] [ 57 ]
  • [ 53 ] — re Colonial Region Republicans [ 53 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Total IE spending
$1K
For candidates
$1K
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 11/20/2020
Source: FEC Schedule E
Chris Coons (D)
$1K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$1.8M
Total raised (cycle)
$6.1M
Total spent
$4.7M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Lauren Witzke (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$3K
Total raised (cycle)
$480K
Total spent
$476K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Oct 29 — +18.0 —
DDHQ Safe D Nov 3 — +18.0 —
538 Safe D Nov 2 — +18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe D Oct 28 — +18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Nov 2 — +18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 68 months ago (9/27/2020) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 2037d
  • 10/4/2020 Safe D D+30.0 via polls held 90d
  • 7/6/2020 Lean D via pvi