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Races · Senate · 2020 · Delaware
Senate · class II · open seat

Chris Coons vs Lauren Witzke

Safe DD +31.0 forecast· 1 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Coons (D)
1% Witzke (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +31.0 · 80% CI D+19.0 → D+43.0
Actual result D+21.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+31.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+19.0 (10th pctile) to D+43.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +31.0
80% CI: D +19.0D +43.0 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used1
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+21.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

2530354045505560COONS 57.0WITZKE 27.0SEP '20SEP '20SEP '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 1 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Sep 26University of Delaware847 · LVNEUTRAL57 · 27

Endorsements · 33 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
30Coons · 91%
Witzke · 9%3
DChris Coons30 endorsers
Most notable · Joe Biden · 47th Vice President of the United States (2009-2017), United States Senator from Delaware (1973-2009), Democratic nominee for the 2020 election
Other16
Organizations9
Elected officials5
Federal 1State 2Local 0
RLauren Witzke3 endorsers
Most notable · Paul Gosar · U.S. representative from Arizona (2011–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Organizations1
Other1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Chris CoonsS0DE00092 ↗
Receipts
$6.1M
Disburse
$4.7M
Cash on hand
$1.8M
Debts
$0
Lawyers / law firms$90.6K
Securities & investment$66.0K
Pharma / health products$31.0K
TV / movies / music$25.7K
Computers / electronics$25.1K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$66.0K
YOUNG CONAWAY STARGATT & TAYLOR LLP$48.2K
YOUNG CONAWAY STARGATT & TAYLOR, LLP$42.4K
AMGEN, INC.$31.0K
DUPONT$27.3K
Lauren WitzkeOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$479.5K
Disburse
$476.2K
Cash on hand
$3.3K
Debts
$0
Internet$6.1K
Crop production$3.5K
STEVIE STACKS ENTERTAINMENT$6.8K
SHEET METAL CONTRACTING$6.1K
BERG BERG$5.6K
EMA$5.0K
FARMER FRESH PRODUCE$3.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.1K
D side
$1.1K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
CARE ACTION
For / against split
For Coons $1.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CARE ACTIOND$1.0K89%for Chris Coons
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.0510%for Chris Coons
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$101%for Chris Coons

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 28
DDHQ
Safe D
Nov 2
538
Safe D
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements33 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks