Races · Senate · 2020 · CO
Senate · class II · open seat

John Hickenlooper vs Cory Gardner

Lean D · 38 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2016d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 38 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 38 results

38 of 38 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/1/2020Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun1.00502LV
no scored polls2016d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2016d old
    Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Colorado Sun
    Commissioned by The Colorado Sun, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Cory Gardner 42.0 · John Hickenlooper 53.0pollarch
11/1/2020Data for Progress1.00(D+1.0)709LV
2016d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2016d old
    Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Cory Gardner 45.0 · John Hickenlooper 54.0pollarch
11/1/2020Swayable0.49L(D+7.7)443LV
historical bias D+7.7ptweight 0.49+3
  • historical bias D+7.7pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+7.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • weight 0.49
    Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 2016d old
    Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 43.0 · John Hickenlooper 57.0pollarch
10/31/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)727LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2017d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2017d old
    Poll was fielded 2017 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 44.0 · John Hickenlooper 52.0pollarch
10/20/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)788LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2028d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2028d old
    Poll was fielded 2028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 42.0 · John Hickenlooper 50.0pollarch
10/16/2020RBI Strategies & Research1.00L502LV
no scored polls2032d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2032d old
    Poll was fielded 2032 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 39.0 · John Hickenlooper 53.0pollarch
10/15/2020RMG Research/PoliticalIQ1.00800LV
no scored polls2033d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2033d old
    Poll was fielded 2033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 42.0 · John Hickenlooper 51.0pollarch
10/14/2020Civiqs/Daily Kos0.91L(D+4.0)1013LV
2034d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 2034d old
    Poll was fielded 2034 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 42.0 · John Hickenlooper 53.0pollarch
10/13/2020Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson1.00519LV
no scored polls2035d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2035d old
    Poll was fielded 2035 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 41.0 · John Hickenlooper 51.0pollarch
10/11/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)837LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2037d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2037d old
    Poll was fielded 2037 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 40.0 · John Hickenlooper 50.0pollarch
10/9/2020YouGov/University of Colorado1.00800LV
no scored polls2039d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2039d old
    Poll was fielded 2039 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 40.0 · John Hickenlooper 48.0pollarch
10/6/2020SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)1021LV
2042d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 2042d old
    Poll was fielded 2042 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 39.0 · John Hickenlooper 48.0pollarch
9/20/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)613LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2058d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2058d old
    Poll was fielded 2058 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 42.0 · John Hickenlooper 49.0pollarch
9/17/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)599LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2061d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2061d old
    Poll was fielded 2061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 44.0 · John Hickenlooper 46.0pollarch
9/5/2020Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates1.00800LV
no scored polls2073d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2073d old
    Poll was fielded 2073 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 46.0 · John Hickenlooper 51.0pollarch
9/1/2020Global Strategy Group1.00800LV
no scored polls2077d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2077d old
    Poll was fielded 2077 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 42.0 · John Hickenlooper 52.0pollarch
8/30/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)638LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2079d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2079d old
    Poll was fielded 2079 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 39.0 · John Hickenlooper 48.0pollarch
8/25/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)600LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2084d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2084d old
    Poll was fielded 2084 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 39.0 · John Hickenlooper 48.0pollarch
8/19/2020Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)731unknown
2090d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 2090d old
    Poll was fielded 2090 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Cory Gardner 42.0 · John Hickenlooper 51.0pollarch
8/15/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)600LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2094d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2094d old
    Poll was fielded 2094 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 38.0 · John Hickenlooper 49.0pollarch
8/5/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)600LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2104d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2104d old
    Poll was fielded 2104 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 39.0 · John Hickenlooper 50.0pollarch
7/26/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)616LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2114d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2114d old
    Poll was fielded 2114 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 42.0 · John Hickenlooper 48.0pollarch
7/22/2020Morning Consult1.00(D+5.0)600LV
historical bias D+5.0pt2118d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2118d old
    Poll was fielded 2118 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cory Gardner 41.0 · John Hickenlooper 50.0pollarch
6/30/2020Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)840unknown
2140d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 2140d old
    Poll was fielded 2140 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Cory Gardner 40.0 · John Hickenlooper 51.0pollarch
5/3/2020Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson1.00600LV
no scored polls2198d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2198d old
    Poll was fielded 2198 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 36.0 · John Hickenlooper 54.0pollarch
4/19/2020Montana State University Bozeman1.00379LV
no scored pollsn=379+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • n=379
    Sample size of 379 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical.
  • 2212d old
    Poll was fielded 2212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 31.0 · John Hickenlooper 48.0pollarch
10/14/2019Keating Research1.00500LV
no scored polls2400d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2400d old
    Poll was fielded 2400 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 42.0 · John Hickenlooper 53.0pollarch
8/19/2019Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)1000RV
2456d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 2456d old
    Poll was fielded 2456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Cory Gardner 40.0 · John Hickenlooper 53.0pollarch
8/14/2019Global Strategy Group1.00617LV
no scored polls2461d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2461d old
    Poll was fielded 2461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 39.0 · John Hickenlooper 49.0pollarch
8/14/2019Global Strategy Group1.00617LV
no scored polls2461d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2461d old
    Poll was fielded 2461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 38.0pollarch
8/14/2019Global Strategy Group1.00617LV
no scored polls2461d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2461d old
    Poll was fielded 2461 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 39.0 · Mike Johnston 50.0pollarch
8/11/2019Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)739unknown
2464d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 2464d old
    Poll was fielded 2464 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Cory Gardner 38.0 · John Hickenlooper 51.0pollarch
7/31/2019Fabrizio Ward/AARP1.00600LV
no scored polls2475d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2475d old
    Poll was fielded 2475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 45.0 · Mike Johnston 39.0pollarch
2/4/2019Global Strategy Group1.00818RV
no scored polls2652d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2652d old
    Poll was fielded 2652 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Cory Gardner 40.0pollarch
1/5/2019DFM Research0.65L(D+6.1)550A
3 scored pollsadult sample+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • adult sample
    Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections.
  • 2682d old
    Poll was fielded 2682 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Cory Gardner 38.0pollarch
12/4/2018Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)540LV
historical bias D+3.7pt2714d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2714d old
    Poll was fielded 2714 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cory Gardner 41.0pollarch
8/3/2017Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)628unknown
3202d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 3202d old
    Poll was fielded 3202 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Cory Gardner 41.0pollarch
7/1/2017Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)870unknown
3235d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 3235d old
    Poll was fielded 3235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Politico
    Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Cory Gardner 39.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 8 total
Cory Gardner (R)
8 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Donald Trump — 45th president of the United States [ 21 ]
  • George W. Bush — 43rd president of the United States [ 20 ]
Organizations / unions (2)
  • Republican Jewish Coalition — [ 26 ]
  • [ 22 ] — gn for Working Families [ 22 ]
Other (4)
  • Charles Koch — billionaire political activist [ 27 ]
  • John Bolton — former United States National Security Advisor [ 23 ]
  • Nikki Haley — former United States Ambassador to the United Nations [ 24 ]
  • [ 25 ] — AC [ 25 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Total IE spending
$7.8M
For candidates
$4.8M
Against candidates
$3.0M
Latest filing: 12/31/2020
Source: FEC Schedule E
$2.6M for · $2.6M against
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Total raised (cycle)
$44.2M
Total spent
$42.6M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
$2.2M for · $374K against
Cash on hand
$1.0M
Total raised (cycle)
$26.2M
Total spent
$26.8M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Mike Johnston (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Total raised (cycle)
$3.6M
Total spent
$2.5M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Lean D Oct 29 +3.5
DDHQ Likely D Nov 3 +9.0
538 Likely D Nov 2 +9.0
Inside Elections Lean D Oct 28 +3.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D Nov 2 +9.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 67 months ago (11/1/2020) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Lean D via pvi held 2097d
  • 8/5/2020 Likely D D+12.0 via polls held 30d
  • 7/6/2020 Safe D D+15.3 via polls