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Races · Senate · 2020 · Colorado
Senate · class II · open seat

John Hickenlooper vs Cory Gardner

← Arizona SenateDelaware Senate →
Likely DD +9.1 forecast· 37 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
93% Hickenlooper (D)
7% Gardner (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +9.1 · 80% CI R+2.9 → D+21.1
Actual result D+9.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 93% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.9 (10th pctile) to D+21.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.1
80% CI: R +2.9 → D +21.1 · win prob 93%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used37
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+9.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

36404448525660HICKENLOOPER 50.9HICKENLOOPER 49.0GARDNER 43.4SEP '20OCT '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 37 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 31, 20Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun+1For · The Colorado Sun502 · LVNEUTRAL——53 · 42
Oct 31, 20Data for Progress+1709 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned54 · 45
Oct 31, 20Swayable+1For · Swayable443 · LVD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean57 · 43
Oct 30, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult727 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned52 · 44
Oct 19, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult788 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned50 · 42
Oct 15, 20RBI Strategies & Research502 · LVD-LEAN——53 · 39
Oct 14, 20RMG Research/PoliticalIQ800 · LVNEUTRAL——51 · 42
Oct 13, 20Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos1,013 · LVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked-0.9aligned53 · 42
Oct 12, 20Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson519 · LVNEUTRAL——51 · 41
Oct 10, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult837 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned50 · 40
Oct 8, 20YouGov/University of Colorado800 · LVNEUTRAL——48 · 40
Oct 5, 20SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,021 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 39
Sep 19, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult613 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned49 · 42
Sep 16, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult599 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned46 · 44
Sep 14, 20Morning Consult613 · unknownD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned42
Sep 4, 20Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research AssociatesFor · AARP800 · LVNEUTRAL——51 · 46
Aug 31, 20Global Strategy Group800 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean52 · 42
Aug 29, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult638 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned48 · 39
Aug 24, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult600 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned48 · 39
Aug 18, 20Public Policy Polling731 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy51 · 42
Aug 14, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult600 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned49 · 38
Aug 4, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult600 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned50 · 39
Jul 25, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult616 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned48 · 42
Jul 21, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult600 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned50 · 41
Jun 29, 20Public Policy Polling840 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy51 · 40
May 2, 20Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/MelansonFor · Colorado Politics600 · LVNEUTRAL——54 · 36
Apr 18, 20Montana State University Bozeman+1379 · LVNEUTRAL——48 · 31
Oct 13, 19Keating Research500 · LVNEUTRAL——53 · 42
Aug 18, 19Emerson College+11,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned53 · 40
Aug 13, 19Global Strategy Group617 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean49 · 39
Aug 13, 19Global Strategy Group617 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean38
Aug 10, 19Public Policy Polling739 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy51 · 38
Feb 3, 19Global Strategy Group818 · RVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean40
Jan 4, 19DFM Research550 · AD-LEAND +6.13 tracked—38
Dec 3, 18Change Research+1540 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy41
Aug 2, 17Public Policy Polling628 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy41
Jun 30, 17Public Policy Polling+1For · Politico870 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy39
· 37 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 6 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
Gardner · 100%6
RCory Gardner6 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States
Other3
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Organizations1
DJohn Hickenlooper0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMJohn Wright Hickenlooper0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
John HickenlooperS0CO00575 ↗
Receipts
$44.2M
Disburse
$42.6M
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$178.6K
Education$153.2K
Computers / electronics$38.3K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$137.1K
UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO$59.2K
WILMERHALE$48.6K
FACEBOOK$41.5K
MICROSOFT$38.3K
Cory GardnerS4CO00395 ↗
Receipts
$26.2M
Disburse
$26.8M
Cash on hand
$1.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$7.8M
D side
$3.0M · 39%
R side
$4.8M · 61%
Top spender
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUND
For / against split
For Hickenlooper $2.6M
Against Gardner $374.4K
Against Hickenlooper $2.6M
For Gardner $2.2M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.1M27%against John Hickenlooper
FAIR SHARE ACTIOND$1.9M24%for John Hickenlooper
NRA VICTORY FUND, INC.R$1.2M15%for Cory Gardner
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$861.3K11%for Cory Gardner
FOR A BETTER COLORADOD$500.0K6%for John Hickenlooper
OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.R$252.7K3%for Cory Gardner
GUN OWNERS OF AMERICA, INC.R$159.7K2%for Cory Gardner
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$115.1K1%against Cory Gardner
PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECTD$98.3K1%for John Hickenlooper

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D3
Lean D2
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 28
DDHQ
Likely D
Nov 2
538
Likely D
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Lean D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified36 / 37deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements6 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks