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Races · Senate · 2020 · Alabama
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Senate · class II · open seat

Doug Jones vs Tommy Tuberville

← Alaska SenateArkansas Senate →
Safe RR +18.9 forecast· 28 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Jones (D)
99% Tuberville (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +18.9 · 80% CI R+30.9 → R+7.0
Actual result R+20.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+30.9 (10th pctile) to R+7.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.9
80% CI: R +30.9 → R +7.0 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used28
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+20.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

30354045505560TUBERVILLE 54.1JONES 41.8JONES 41.4SESSIONS 47.4DEC '19MAY '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 28 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 31, 20Swayable+2For · Swayable294 · LVD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean42 · 58
Oct 31, 20Data for Progress+11,045 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned44 · 56
Oct 30, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult850 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned39 · 51
Oct 27, 20Auburn University at MontgomeryFor · Auburn University at Montgomery853 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 54
Oct 25, 20Swayable+2For · Swayable232 · LVD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean46 · 54
Oct 25, 20Morning Consult850 · unknownD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned51
Oct 22, 20Cygnal+1For · Alabama Daily News645 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned41 · 55
Oct 21, 20Cygnal645 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned55
Oct 13, 20Moore Information504 · LVR-LEAN——40 · 55
Oct 13, 20FM3 Research+1801 · LVNEUTRAL—-9.6noisy48 · 47
Oct 12, 20FM3 Research801 · unknownNEUTRAL—-9.6noisy47
Oct 2, 20Auburn University at MontgomeryFor · Auburn University at Montgomery1,072 · RVNEUTRAL——42 · 54
Sep 19, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult658 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned34 · 52
Sep 14, 20Morning Consult658 · unknownD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned52
Aug 1, 20Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult609 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned35 · 52
Jul 8, 20Auburn University at MontgomeryFor · Auburn University at Montgomery567 · RVNEUTRAL——36 · 44
Jul 8, 20Auburn University at MontgomeryFor · Auburn University at Montgomery567 · RVNEUTRAL——43 · 49
Jul 1, 20WPA Intelligence+1For · Politico509 · LVR-LEAN—-1.2aligned40 · 50
Jun 21, 20A.L.G. Research600 · LVNEUTRAL——44 · 47
Jun 21, 20A.L.G. Research600 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 45
Jun 15, 20CygnalFor · Cygnal530 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned36 · 50
Jun 15, 20CygnalFor · Cygnal530 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned35 · 45
May 17, 20FM3 Research+1601 · LVNEUTRAL—-9.6noisy44 · 47
Feb 5, 20Mason-Dixon+2For · Alabama Daily News625 · RVNEUTRALR +0.128 tracked-2.9noisy42 · 50
Feb 5, 20Mason-Dixon+2For · Alabama Daily News625 · RVNEUTRALR +0.128 tracked-2.9noisy41 · 54
Dec 17, 19JMC Analytics525 · LVNEUTRAL——40 · 47
Dec 17, 19JMC Analytics525 · LVNEUTRAL——41 · 46
Dec 17, 19JMC Analytics525 · LVNEUTRAL——34
· 28 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 11 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
11Jones · 100%
DDoug Jones11 endorsers
Most notable · Amy Klobuchar · U.S. senator (MN) and candidate for President of the United States in 2020
Elected officials5
Federal 3State 1Local 1
Other4
Celebrity1
Organizations1
RTommy Tuberville0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMGordon Douglas Jones0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJeff Sessions0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2030-06-25
Tommy TubervilleS0AL00230 ↗
Receipts
$9.6M
Disburse
$9.4M
Cash on hand
$173.5K
Debts
$50.2K
Top industries
Education$20.6K
Lawyers / law firms$17.2K
Top contributors
HOMETOWN LENDERS$42.5K
DRUMMOND CO$26.1K
PROSHOT CONCRETE$22.6K
BRETT ROBINSON$22.4K
WOODLAND HOMES$20.9K
Doug JonesS0AL00156 ↗
Receipts
$31.1M
Disburse
$32.7M
Cash on hand
$474.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jeff SessionsS6AL00195 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$6.8M
D side
$1.4M · 20%
R side
$5.4M · 80%
Top spender
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION
For / against split
For Jones $972.0K
Against Tuberville $388.4K
Against Jones $445.0K
For Tuberville $5.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$3.2M47%for Tommy Tuberville
GRIT PACR$1.3M19%for Tommy Tuberville
VOTEVETSD$535.9K8%for Doug Jones
HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF)R$481.3K7%for Tommy Tuberville
CONSERVATIVES FOR ALABAMAD$348.0K5%against Tommy Tuberville
PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECTD$262.0K4%for Doug Jones
SAFARI CLUB INTERNATIONAL PAC (SCI-PAC)R$238.0K4%for Tommy Tuberville
PEOPLE FOR THE AMERICAN WAYD$88.3K1%for Doug Jones
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR GUN RIGHTS INC PACD$23.2K0%against Jeff Sessions

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R2
Likely R2
Safe R1
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 28
DDHQ
Safe R
Nov 2
538
Likely R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Lean R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified24 / 28deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2030-06-25
Endorsements11 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks