| 11/4/2018 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 1006 | — | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡2744d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Bob Menendez 51.0 · Bob Hugin 41.0 | pollarch |
| 11/4/2018 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1115 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡2744d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Menendez 55.0 · Bob Hugin 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2018 | Stockton University | 1.00 | — | 598 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2748d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Bob Menendez 51.0 · Bob Hugin 39.0 · Murray Sabrin 3.0 | pollarch |
| 10/29/2018 | Vox Populi Polling | 0.96 | —(D+1.9) | 814 | ±3.4 | unknown | 🟡2750d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2750d old Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Menendez 54.0 · Bob Hugin 46.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 659 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡2753d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Bob Menendez 47.0 · Bob Hugin 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/19/2018 | Rutgers-Eagleton | 1.00 | — | 496 | ±5.1 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2760d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2760d old Poll was fielded 2760 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Bob Menendez 51.0 · Bob Hugin 46.0 | pollarch |
| 10/16/2018 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 873 | ±4.3 | unknown | 🟡2763d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2763d old Poll was fielded 2763 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Menendez 51.0 · Bob Hugin 44.0 | pollarch |
| 10/15/2018 | Monmouth University | 1.00 | —(D+5.0) | 527 | ±4.3 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+5.0pt🟡2764d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
2764d old Poll was fielded 2764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Menendez 49.0 · Bob Hugin 40.0 · Murray Sabrin 1.0 | pollarch |
| 10/9/2018 | National Research Inc. (R-Hugin) | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2770d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2770d old Poll was fielded 2770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Bob Menendez 42.0 · Bob Hugin 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/5/2018 | YouGov | 1.00 | —(D+3.7) | 845 | — | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡2774d old- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
2774d old Poll was fielded 2774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Bob Menendez 49.0 · Bob Hugin 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/2/2018 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1058 | ±4.1 | unknown | 🟡2777d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Menendez 53.0 · Bob Hugin 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/1/2018 | Vox Populi Polling | 0.96 | —(D+1.9) | 794 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡2778d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2778d old Poll was fielded 2778 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Menendez 52.0 · Bob Hugin 48.0 | pollarch |
| 9/30/2018 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | 1.00 | — | 508 | ±4.3 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2779d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2779d old Poll was fielded 2779 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Bob Menendez 43.0 · Bob Hugin 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/27/2018 | Stockton University | 1.00 | — | 531 | ±4.3 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2782d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2782d old Poll was fielded 2782 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Bob Menendez 45.0 · Bob Hugin 43.0 · Murray Sabrin 3.0 | pollarch |
| 8/20/2018 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 908 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡2820d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2820d old Poll was fielded 2820 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Menendez 43.0 · Bob Hugin 37.0 | pollarch |
| 8/15/2018 | Gravis Marketing (L-Sabrin) | 1.00 | — | 753 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2825d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2825d old Poll was fielded 2825 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Bob Menendez 40.0 · Bob Hugin 30.0 · Murray Sabrin 7.0 | pollarch |
| 7/10/2018 | Gravis Marketing | 0.72 | L(D+2.9) | 563 | ±4.1 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.9pt🟡2861d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. - 🟡
2861d old Poll was fielded 2861 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
| Bob Menendez 43.0 · Bob Hugin 41.0 | pollarch |
| 5/21/2018 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | 1.00 | — | 856 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2911d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2911d old Poll was fielded 2911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
| Bob Menendez 28.0 · Bob Hugin 24.0 | pollarch |
| 4/10/2018 | Monmouth University | 1.00 | —(D+5.0) | 632 | ±3.9 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+5.0pt🟡2952d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
2952d old Poll was fielded 2952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Menendez 53.0 · Bob Hugin 32.0 | pollarch |
| 3/12/2018 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1052 | ±4.2 | unknown | 🟡2981d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2981d old Poll was fielded 2981 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Menendez 49.0 · Bob Hugin 32.0 | pollarch |
| 3/25/2013 | Harper Polling | 1.00 | — | 760 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4794d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4794d old Poll was fielded 4794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Rob Andrews 17.0 · Thomas Kean 33.0 | pollarch |
| 3/25/2013 | Harper Polling | 1.00 | — | 760 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4794d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4794d old Poll was fielded 4794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Richard Codey 34.0 · Joe Kyrillos 25.0 | pollarch |