Races · Senate · 2018 · NE
Senate · class II · open seat

Jane Raybould vs Deb Fischer

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Likely R — · 3 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2752d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 3 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
10/27/2018DFM Research0.65L(D+6.1)683±3.8unknown
3 scored polls2752d old
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2752d old
    Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Deb Fischer 54.0 · Jane Raybould 39.0pollarch
1/28/2018Meeting Street Research (R-Fischer)1.00—500—unknown
no scored polls3024d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3024d old
    Poll was fielded 3024 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Deb Fischer 51.0 · Jane Raybould 34.0pollarch
11/12/2017Public Policy Polling (D-Raybould)1.00—1190±2.8unknown
no scored polls3101d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 3101d old
    Poll was fielded 3101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Deb Fischer 42.0 · Jane Raybould 31.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 42 total
Deb Fischer (R)
27 endorsements · source
Elected officials (5)
  • Don Stenberg — State Treasurer and former Attorney General [ 11 ]
  • Donald Trump — president of the United States [ 12 ]
  • Doug Peterson — Attorney General [ 13 ]
  • Mike Foley — lieutenant governor [ 13 ]
  • Shane Osborn — former State Treasurer [ 11 ]
Organizations / unions (2)
  • National Federation of Independent Business — [ 15 ]
  • [ 19 ] — Professional Fire Fighters Association, IAFF L385 [ 19 ]
Other (20)
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • Adrian Smith — Nebraska [ 13 ]
  • Ben Sasse — Nebraska [ 13 ]
  • Charles Thone — Nebraska (former) [ 13 ]
  • Charlie Janssen — Auditor of Public Accounts [ 13 ]
  • Dave Heineman — Nebraska (former) [ 13 ]
  • Don Bacon — Nebraska [ 13 ]
  • Jean Stothert — Omaha [ 13 ]
  • Jeff Fortenberry — Nebraska [ 13 ]
  • Kay Orr — Nebraska (former) [ 13 ]
  • Maggie's List — [ 14 ]
  • National Right to Life — [ 16 ]
  • Pete Ricketts — Nebraska [ 13 ]
  • Susan B. Anthony List — [ 20 ]
  • U.S. Chamber of Commerce — [ 21 ]
  • [ 17 ] — ka Cattlemen [ 17 ]
  • [ 18 ] — ka Farm Bureau [ 18 ]
Jane Raybould (D)
15 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • Chris Beutler — mayor of Lincoln [ 26 ]
Organizations / unions (5)
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 30 ]
  • National Education Association — Fund [ 27 ]
  • Planned Parenthood — Action Fund [ 31 ]
  • [ 28 ] — ka State Education Association [ 28 ]
  • [ 32 ] — 's Action Network [ 32 ]
Other (9)
  • 30 — 40%
  • 40 — 50%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • Ben Nelson — Nebraska (2001–2013) [ 25 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 29 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 33 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Oct 26 — -18.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Nov 1 — -18.0 —
RealClearPolitics Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Nov 5 — -18.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/27/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi