Races · Senate · 2018 · NM

Senate · class II · open seat

Martin Heinrich vs Mick Rich

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Tilt D — · 16 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2745d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 16 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

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Tilt D

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 16 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:16 of 16 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2018	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	±4.6	unknown	2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martin Heinrich 47.0 · Mick Rich 33.0 · Gary Johnson 11.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	Carroll Strategies	1.00	—	1202	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls2747d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 51.0 · Mick Rich 38.0 · Gary Johnson 8.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	Research & Polling Inc. *	1.86	neutral(R+0.7)	993	±3.1	unknown	2747d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. weight 1.86 Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Martin Heinrich 51.0 · Mick Rich 31.0 · Gary Johnson 12.0	poll arch
10/26/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	936	±3.4	unknown	2753d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2753d old Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Martin Heinrich 48.0 · Mick Rich 32.0 · Gary Johnson 16.0	poll arch
10/24/2018	Pacific Market Research	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls2755d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2755d old Poll was fielded 2755 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 40.0 · Mick Rich 28.0 · Gary Johnson 22.0	poll arch
9/24/2018	NSON Opinion Strategy	1.00	L	932	—	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2785d old Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 36.0 · Mick Rich 10.0 · Gary Johnson 28.0	poll arch
9/17/2018	In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)	1.00	—	900	—	unknown	no scored polls2792d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2792d old Poll was fielded 2792 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 38.0 · Mick Rich 10.0 · Gary Johnson 28.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	Research & Polling Inc. *	1.86	neutral(R+0.7)	966	±3.1	unknown	2796d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+1 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 8 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. weight 1.86 Aggregation weight is 1.86 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Martin Heinrich 47.0 · Mick Rich 26.0 · Gary Johnson 16.0	poll arch
8/18/2018	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	500	±4.6	unknown	2822d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 2822d old Poll was fielded 2822 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Martin Heinrich 39.0 · Mick Rich 11.0 · Gary Johnson 21.0	poll arch
8/5/2018	GQR Research (D-TMI)	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls2835d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2835d old Poll was fielded 2835 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 48.0 · Mick Rich 33.0 · Gary Johnson 17.0	poll arch
8/5/2018	GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2835d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2835d old Poll was fielded 2835 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 47.0 · Mick Rich 29.0 · Gary Johnson 22.0	poll arch
8/5/2018	GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls2835d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2835d old Poll was fielded 2835 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 50.0 · Gary Johnson 38.0	poll arch
8/2/2018	The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)	1.00	—	500	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2838d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2838d old Poll was fielded 2838 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 44.0 · Mick Rich 30.0 · Gary Johnson 20.0	poll arch
8/2/2018	The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)	1.00	—	500	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls2838d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2838d old Poll was fielded 2838 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 55.0 · Mick Rich 37.0	poll arch
7/29/2018	In Lux Research	1.00	L	525	—	unknown	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+1 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2842d old Poll was fielded 2842 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 40.0 · Gary Johnson 42.0	poll arch
6/16/2018	Carroll Strategies	1.00	—	1199	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls2885d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2885d old Poll was fielded 2885 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 50.0 · Mick Rich 39.0 · Aubrey Dunn 5.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Oct 26	—	+18.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Safe D	Nov 6	—	+18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe D	Nov 1	—	+18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 1	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (11/3/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt D via pvi