Races · Senate · 2012 · HI

Senate · class II · open seat

Mazie Hirono vs Linda Lingle

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Likely D — · 33 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4944d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 33 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 33 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:33 of 33 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/26/2012	Civil Beat/Merriman River	1.00	—	1218	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls4944d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4944d old Poll was fielded 4944 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mazie Hirono 55.0 · Linda Lingle 40.0	poll arch
10/22/2012	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	786	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4948d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4948d old Poll was fielded 4948 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mazie Hirono 57.0 · Linda Lingle 35.0	poll arch
9/28/2012	Civil Beat/Merriman River	1.00	—	1684	±2.4	unknown	no scored polls4972d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4972d old Poll was fielded 4972 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,684 Sample size of 1,684 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Mazie Hirono 55.0 · Linda Lingle 39.0	poll arch
7/21/2012	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	756	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls5041d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5041d old Poll was fielded 5041 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mazie Hirono 58.0 · Linda Lingle 39.0	poll arch
7/21/2012	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	756	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls5041d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5041d old Poll was fielded 5041 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ed Case 56.0 · Linda Lingle 38.0	poll arch
6/7/2012	Civil Beat/Merriman River	1.00	—	1105	±2.9	unknown	no scored polls5085d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5085d old Poll was fielded 5085 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mazie Hirono 49.0 · Linda Lingle 44.0	poll arch
6/7/2012	Civil Beat/Merriman River	1.00	—	1105	±2.9	unknown	no scored polls5085d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5085d old Poll was fielded 5085 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ed Case 52.0 · Linda Lingle 36.0	poll arch
5/17/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	5106d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5106d old Poll was fielded 5106 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mazie Hirono 50.0 · Linda Lingle 41.0	poll arch
2/5/2012	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	771	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5208d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5208d old Poll was fielded 5208 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mazie Hirono 57.0 · Linda Lingle 37.0	poll arch
2/5/2012	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	771	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5208d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5208d old Poll was fielded 5208 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ed Case 56.0 · Linda Lingle 36.0	poll arch
1/19/2012	Civil Beat/Merriman River	1.00	—	1358	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls5225d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5225d old Poll was fielded 5225 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mazie Hirono 46.0 · Linda Lingle 39.0	poll arch
1/19/2012	Civil Beat/Merriman River	1.00	—	1358	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls5225d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5225d old Poll was fielded 5225 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ed Case 46.0 · Linda Lingle 33.0	poll arch
10/16/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	568	±4.1	unknown	5320d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5320d old Poll was fielded 5320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mazie Hirono 48.0 · Linda Lingle 42.0	poll arch
10/16/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	568	±4.1	unknown	5320d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5320d old Poll was fielded 5320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ed Case 60.0 · John Carroll 21.0	poll arch
10/16/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	568	±4.1	unknown	5320d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5320d old Poll was fielded 5320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ed Case 43.0 · Linda Lingle 45.0	poll arch
10/16/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	568	±4.1	unknown	5320d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5320d old Poll was fielded 5320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mazie Hirono 56.0 · John Carroll 29.0	poll arch
5/10/2011	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	614	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5479d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5479d old Poll was fielded 5479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mazie Hirono 57.0 · Linda Lingle 35.0	poll arch
5/10/2011	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	614	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5479d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5479d old Poll was fielded 5479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Colleen Hanabusa 54.0 · Linda Lingle 39.0	poll arch
5/10/2011	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	614	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5479d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5479d old Poll was fielded 5479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mufi Hannemann 51.0 · Linda Lingle 36.0	poll arch
5/10/2011	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	614	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5479d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5479d old Poll was fielded 5479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Brian Schatz 47.0 · Linda Lingle 43.0	poll arch
5/10/2011	Honolulu Star-Advertiser	1.00	—	614	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5479d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5479d old Poll was fielded 5479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ed Case 54.0 · Linda Lingle 36.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mazie Hirono 52.0 · Linda Lingle 40.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ed Case 50.0 · Duke Aiona 35.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mazie Hirono 49.0 · Duke Aiona 42.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colleen Hanabusa 48.0 · Duke Aiona 43.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colleen Hanabusa 50.0 · Charles Djou 40.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Colleen Hanabusa 51.0 · Linda Lingle 40.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ed Case 53.0 · Charles Djou 35.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mazie Hirono 51.0 · Charles Djou 40.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mufi Hannemann 46.0 · Charles Djou 40.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mufi Hannemann 42.0 · Duke Aiona 42.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mufi Hannemann 47.0 · Linda Lingle 40.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	898	±3.3	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ed Case 52.0 · Linda Lingle 35.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Nov 1	—	+3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (10/26/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi