Races · Senate · 2012 · FL

Senate · class II · open seat

Bill Nelson vs Connie Mack IV

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Tilt R — · 117 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4935d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 117 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 117 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:117 of 117 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/4/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	955	±3.2	unknown	4935d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 51.0 · Connie Mack IV 46.0	poll arch
11/3/2012	Angus Reid Public Opinion	1.15	R(R+2.2)	525	±4.3	unknown	4936d old 4936d old Poll was fielded 4936 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 53.0 · Connie Mack IV 45.0	poll arch
11/1/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	1545	±2.5	unknown	4938d oldbias R+0.7pt+2 4938d old Poll was fielded 4938 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. n=1,545 Sample size of 1,545 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 52.0 · Connie Mack IV 43.0	poll arch
11/1/2012	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	800	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.4pt4938d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 4938d old Poll was fielded 4938 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Connie Mack IV 43.0	poll arch
10/31/2012	Reuters/Ipsos	1.21	neutral(D+0.6)	716	±4.2	unknown	4939d old 4939d old Poll was fielded 4939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 52.0 · Connie Mack IV 42.0	poll arch
10/30/2012	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	549	±4.2	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4940d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4940d old Poll was fielded 4940 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Connie Mack IV 46.0	poll arch
10/29/2012	Zogby/Newsmax	1.00	—	828	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4941d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4941d old Poll was fielded 4941 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Connie Mack IV 41.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	CBS/Quinnipiac University	1.00	—	1073	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4942d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Quinnipiac University Commissioned by Quinnipiac University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Nelson 52.0 · Connie Mack IV 39.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	687	±3.7	unknown	4942d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Connie Mack IV 42.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	Zogby/Newsmax	1.00	—	827	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4942d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Connie Mack IV 41.0	poll arch
10/27/2012	WFLA-TV/SurveyUSA	1.00	—	595	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls4943d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4943d old Poll was fielded 4943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Connie Mack IV 41.0	poll arch
10/25/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4945d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4945d old Poll was fielded 4945 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Connie Mack IV 46.0	poll arch
10/24/2012	Sunshine State News/VSS	1.00	—	1001	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4946d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4946d old Poll was fielded 4946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Connie Mack IV 44.0	poll arch
10/24/2012	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt4946d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 4946d old Poll was fielded 4946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 44.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	Pharos Research	0.97	neutral(D+0.6)	759	±3.6	unknown	4949d oldbias D+0.6pt+1 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 52.0 · Connie Mack IV 44.0	poll arch
10/20/2012	Angus Reid Public Opinion	1.15	R(R+2.2)	502	±4.5	unknown	4950d old 4950d old Poll was fielded 4950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 56.0 · Connie Mack IV 39.0	poll arch
10/18/2012	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	600	±4.1	unknown	4952d oldtracks editorial consensus 4952d old Poll was fielded 4952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
10/18/2012	Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers/WPTV	1.00	—	800	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4952d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4952d old Poll was fielded 4952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Connie Mack IV 41.0	poll arch
10/18/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4952d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4952d old Poll was fielded 4952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Connie Mack IV 43.0	poll arch
10/14/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	791	±3.4	unknown	4956d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4956d old Poll was fielded 4956 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Connie Mack IV 37.0	poll arch
10/11/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4959d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4959d old Poll was fielded 4959 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Connie Mack IV 45.0	poll arch
10/10/2012	TBT/Miami Herald	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4960d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4960d old Poll was fielded 4960 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Miami Herald Commissioned by Miami Herald, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 42.0	poll arch
10/9/2012	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	800	±3.5	unknown	4961d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 4961d old Poll was fielded 4961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
10/9/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	1.00	—	988	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4961d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4961d old Poll was fielded 4961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 52.0 · Connie Mack IV 39.0	poll arch
10/4/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4966d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4966d old Poll was fielded 4966 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 52.0 · Connie Mack IV 41.0	poll arch
10/1/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	1.00	—	890	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls4969d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4969d old Poll was fielded 4969 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 52.0 · Connie Mack IV 41.0	poll arch
9/30/2012	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4970d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 4970d old Poll was fielded 4970 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 40.0 · Connie Mack IV 34.0	poll arch
9/19/2012	TBT/Miami Herald	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4981d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4981d old Poll was fielded 4981 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Miami Herald Commissioned by Miami Herald, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
9/18/2012	FOX NEWS Poll	1.00	—	829	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4982d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4982d old Poll was fielded 4982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: Fox News Commissioned by Fox News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Connie Mack IV 35.0	poll arch
9/12/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4988d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4988d old Poll was fielded 4988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
9/11/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	1.00	—	980	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4989d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4989d old Poll was fielded 4989 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 51.0 · Connie Mack IV 37.0	poll arch
9/9/2012	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	596	±4.1	unknown	4991d oldtracks editorial consensus 4991d old Poll was fielded 4991 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 36.0	poll arch
9/2/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1548	±2.5	unknown	4998d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4998d old Poll was fielded 4998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,548 Sample size of 1,548 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Connie Mack IV 38.0	poll arch
8/21/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1241	±2.8	unknown	5010d old 5010d old Poll was fielded 5010 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Connie Mack IV 41.0	poll arch
8/15/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5016d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5016d old Poll was fielded 5016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
7/30/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1177	±2.9	unknown	5032d old 5032d old Poll was fielded 5032 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
7/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	871	±3.3	unknown	5033d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5033d old Poll was fielded 5033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Connie Mack IV 43.0	poll arch
7/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	871	±3.3	unknown	5033d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5033d old Poll was fielded 5033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Mike McCalister 40.0	poll arch
7/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	871	±3.3	unknown	5033d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5033d old Poll was fielded 5033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Dave Weldon 39.0	poll arch
7/19/2012	Survey USA	1.00	—	647	±3.9	unknown	no scored polls5043d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5043d old Poll was fielded 5043 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 42.0 · Connie Mack IV 48.0	poll arch
7/11/2012	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	800	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5051d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5051d old Poll was fielded 5051 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 42.0	poll arch
7/9/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5053d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5053d old Poll was fielded 5053 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 37.0 · Connie Mack IV 46.0	poll arch
6/25/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1200	±2.8	unknown	5067d old 5067d old Poll was fielded 5067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
6/18/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1697	±2.4	unknown	5074d oldn=1,697 5074d old Poll was fielded 5074 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,697 Sample size of 1,697 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 43.0 · Connie Mack IV 39.0	poll arch
6/18/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1697	±2.4	unknown	5074d oldn=1,697 5074d old Poll was fielded 5074 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,697 Sample size of 1,697 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · George LeMieux 32.0	poll arch
6/18/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1697	±2.4	unknown	5074d oldn=1,697 5074d old Poll was fielded 5074 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,697 Sample size of 1,697 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Mike McCalister 34.0	poll arch
6/18/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1697	±2.4	unknown	5074d oldn=1,697 5074d old Poll was fielded 5074 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,697 Sample size of 1,697 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Dave Weldon 31.0	poll arch
6/3/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	642	±3.9	unknown	5089d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5089d old Poll was fielded 5089 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Connie Mack IV 36.0	poll arch
6/3/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	642	±3.9	unknown	5089d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5089d old Poll was fielded 5089 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · George LeMieux 35.0	poll arch
6/3/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	642	±3.9	unknown	5089d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5089d old Poll was fielded 5089 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Mike McCalister 33.0	poll arch
6/3/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	642	±3.9	unknown	5089d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5089d old Poll was fielded 5089 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Dave Weldon 31.0	poll arch
5/21/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1722	±2.4	unknown	5102d oldn=1,722 5102d old Poll was fielded 5102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,722 Sample size of 1,722 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Connie Mack IV 42.0	poll arch
5/20/2012	Marist	1.00	—	1078	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls5103d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5103d old Poll was fielded 5103 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Connie Mack IV 42.0	poll arch
5/20/2012	Marist	1.00	—	1078	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls5103d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5103d old Poll was fielded 5103 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · George LeMieux 42.0	poll arch
4/25/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5128d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5128d old Poll was fielded 5128 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 36.0	poll arch
4/25/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5128d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5128d old Poll was fielded 5128 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · George LeMieux 30.0	poll arch
4/25/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5128d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5128d old Poll was fielded 5128 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Mike McCalister 29.0	poll arch
4/15/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5138d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5138d old Poll was fielded 5138 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 37.0	poll arch
4/15/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5138d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5138d old Poll was fielded 5138 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · George LeMieux 34.0	poll arch
4/15/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5138d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5138d old Poll was fielded 5138 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Mike McCalister 35.0	poll arch
3/26/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1228	±2.8	unknown	5158d old 5158d old Poll was fielded 5158 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Connie Mack IV 36.0	poll arch
3/13/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5171d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5171d old Poll was fielded 5171 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 36.0 · Connie Mack IV 43.0	poll arch
3/13/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5171d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5171d old Poll was fielded 5171 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · George LeMieux 38.0	poll arch
3/13/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5171d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5171d old Poll was fielded 5171 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 42.0 · Mike McCalister 38.0	poll arch
2/13/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5200d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5200d old Poll was fielded 5200 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Connie Mack IV 41.0	poll arch
2/13/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5200d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5200d old Poll was fielded 5200 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · George LeMieux 35.0	poll arch
2/13/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5200d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5200d old Poll was fielded 5200 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 43.0 · Mike McCalister 37.0	poll arch
1/26/2012	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	800	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5218d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5218d old Poll was fielded 5218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Connie Mack IV 42.0	poll arch
1/26/2012	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	800	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5218d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5218d old Poll was fielded 5218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · George LeMieux 33.0	poll arch
1/24/2012	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	600	±4.4	unknown	5220d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 5220d old Poll was fielded 5220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 42.0 · Connie Mack IV 32.0	poll arch
1/24/2012	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	600	±4.4	unknown	5220d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 5220d old Poll was fielded 5220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Adam Hasner 23.0	poll arch
1/24/2012	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	600	±4.4	unknown	5220d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 5220d old Poll was fielded 5220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · George LeMieux 22.0	poll arch
1/24/2012	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	600	±4.4	unknown	5220d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 5220d old Poll was fielded 5220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Mike McCalister 26.0	poll arch
1/8/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1412	±2.6	unknown	5236d old 5236d old Poll was fielded 5236 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
12/1/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5274d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5274d old Poll was fielded 5274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Connie Mack IV 35.0	poll arch
12/1/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5274d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5274d old Poll was fielded 5274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Adam Hasner 33.0	poll arch
12/1/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5274d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5274d old Poll was fielded 5274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · George LeMieux 32.0	poll arch
12/1/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5274d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5274d old Poll was fielded 5274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Mike McCalister 32.0	poll arch
12/1/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5274d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5274d old Poll was fielded 5274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Craig Miller 30.0	poll arch
11/17/2011	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5288d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5288d old Poll was fielded 5288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 39.0 · Connie Mack IV 43.0	poll arch
11/17/2011	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5288d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5288d old Poll was fielded 5288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 40.0 · Adam Hasner 31.0	poll arch
11/17/2011	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5288d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5288d old Poll was fielded 5288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 39.0 · George LeMieux 33.0	poll arch
11/7/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1185	±2.9	unknown	5298d old 5298d old Poll was fielded 5298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 42.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	476	±4.5	unknown	5341d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Adam Hasner 35.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	476	±4.5	unknown	5341d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · George LeMieux 35.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	476	±4.5	unknown	5341d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Mike McCalister 34.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	476	±4.5	unknown	5341d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · Craig Miller 32.0	poll arch
8/22/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5375d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5375d old Poll was fielded 5375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Vern Buchanan 35.0	poll arch
8/22/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5375d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5375d old Poll was fielded 5375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Adam Hasner 34.0	poll arch
8/22/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5375d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5375d old Poll was fielded 5375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · George LeMieux 34.0	poll arch
8/22/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5375d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5375d old Poll was fielded 5375 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Allen West 38.0	poll arch
6/19/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	848	±3.4	unknown	5439d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5439d old Poll was fielded 5439 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Mike Haridopolos 35.0	poll arch
6/19/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	848	±3.4	unknown	5439d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5439d old Poll was fielded 5439 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Adam Hasner 35.0	poll arch
6/19/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	848	±3.4	unknown	5439d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5439d old Poll was fielded 5439 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · George LeMieux 35.0	poll arch
5/23/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1196	±2.8	unknown	5466d old 5466d old Poll was fielded 5466 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Mike Haridopolos 26.0	poll arch
5/23/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1196	±2.8	unknown	5466d old 5466d old Poll was fielded 5466 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Adam Hasner 23.0	poll arch
5/23/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1196	±2.8	unknown	5466d old 5466d old Poll was fielded 5466 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · George LeMieux 27.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Connie Mack IV 34.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Mike Haridopolos 34.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Adam Hasner 32.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · George LeMieux 33.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Joe Scarborough 32.0	poll arch
3/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5523d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5523d old Poll was fielded 5523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · Jimmy Wales 28.0	poll arch
2/10/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5568d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5568d old Poll was fielded 5568 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 45.0 · Connie Mack IV 40.0	poll arch
2/10/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5568d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5568d old Poll was fielded 5568 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 41.0 · Jeb Bush 49.0	poll arch
2/10/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5568d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5568d old Poll was fielded 5568 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 48.0 · Mike Haridopolos 27.0	poll arch
2/10/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5568d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5568d old Poll was fielded 5568 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Adam Hasner 24.0	poll arch
2/10/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5568d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5568d old Poll was fielded 5568 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · George LeMieux 35.0	poll arch
12/20/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1034	±3.0	unknown	5620d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5620d old Poll was fielded 5620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Connie Mack IV 36.0	poll arch
12/20/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1034	±3.0	unknown	5620d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5620d old Poll was fielded 5620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Jeb Bush 49.0	poll arch
12/20/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1034	±3.0	unknown	5620d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5620d old Poll was fielded 5620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 44.0 · Mike Haridopolos 32.0	poll arch
12/20/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1034	±3.0	unknown	5620d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5620d old Poll was fielded 5620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Adam Hasner 30.0	poll arch
12/20/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1034	±3.0	unknown	5620d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5620d old Poll was fielded 5620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 47.0 · George LeMieux 36.0	poll arch
10/10/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	448	±4.6	unknown	5691d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5691d old Poll was fielded 5691 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 42.0 · Connie Mack IV 33.0	poll arch
10/10/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	448	±4.6	unknown	5691d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5691d old Poll was fielded 5691 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 50.0 · Rush Limbaugh 36.0	poll arch
7/18/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	900	±3.3	unknown	5775d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5775d old Poll was fielded 5775 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 46.0 · Jeb Bush 44.0	poll arch
7/18/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	900	±3.3	unknown	5775d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5775d old Poll was fielded 5775 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bill Nelson 49.0 · George LeMieux 28.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Nov 1	—	+3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (11/4/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi