Races · Senate · 2012 · IN

Senate · class II · open seat

Joe Donnelly vs Richard Mourdock

← HI Senate MA Senate →

Likely R — · 10 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4938d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 10 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 10 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:10 of 10 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/1/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4938d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4938d old Poll was fielded 4938 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Richard Mourdock 42.0 · Joe Donnelly 45.0 · Andrew Horning 6.0	poll arch
10/30/2012	Howey Politics/DePauw University	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4940d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4940d old Poll was fielded 4940 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: DePauw University Commissioned by DePauw University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Richard Mourdock 36.0 · Joe Donnelly 47.0 · Andrew Horning 6.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	Pharos Research	0.97	neutral(D+0.6)	754	±3.6	unknown	4949d oldbias D+0.6pt+1 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Richard Mourdock 46.0 · Joe Donnelly 46.0	poll arch
10/11/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4959d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4959d old Poll was fielded 4959 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Richard Mourdock 47.0 · Joe Donnelly 42.0	poll arch
9/23/2012	Howey Politics/DePauw University	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4977d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4977d old Poll was fielded 4977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: DePauw University Commissioned by DePauw University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Richard Mourdock 38.0 · Joe Donnelly 40.0 · Andrew Horning 7.0	poll arch
8/9/2012	Market Research Insight	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5022d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5022d old Poll was fielded 5022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Richard Mourdock 41.0 · Joe Donnelly 39.0 · Andrew Horning 3.0	poll arch
8/1/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	400	±5.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5030d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5030d old Poll was fielded 5030 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Richard Mourdock 42.0 · Joe Donnelly 40.0	poll arch
5/24/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5099d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5099d old Poll was fielded 5099 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Richard Mourdock 42.0 · Joe Donnelly 42.0	poll arch
3/28/2012	Howey Politics/DePauw University	1.00	—	503	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls5156d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5156d old Poll was fielded 5156 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: DePauw University Commissioned by DePauw University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Richard Mourdock 35.0 · Joe Donnelly 35.0 · Andrew Horning 7.0	poll arch
3/28/2012	Howey Politics/DePauw University	1.00	—	503	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls5156d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5156d old Poll was fielded 5156 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: DePauw University Commissioned by DePauw University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Richard Lugar 50.0 · Joe Donnelly 29.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 1	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 5	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (11/1/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi