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Races · President · 2020 · California
President · open seat

California President

Likely D polls· 11 polls · 0 markets
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Polling average

25303540455055606570BIDEN 62.8TRUMP 31.8SEP '20OCT '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 11 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 29David Binder Research800 · unknownNEUTRAL
Oct 28University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy1,155 · unknownNEUTRAL
Oct 25SurveyMonkey+212,370 · unknownD-LEAND +6.4240 tracked+2.2noisy
Oct 24Swayable635 · unknownD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean
Oct 17University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies5,352 · unknownNEUTRAL
Oct 12Public Policy Institute of California1,185 · unknownNEUTRAL
Oct 5SurveyMonkey+222,797 · unknownD-LEAND +6.4240 tracked+2.2noisy
Sep 26SurveyUSA558 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned
Sep 19Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,885 · unknownD-LEAND +5.35 tracked-0.1aligned
Sep 11University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies5,942 · unknownNEUTRAL
Sep 7Public Policy Institute of California1,168 · unknownNEUTRAL
· 11 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DEMJoe Biden0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPDonald Trump0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2021-02-25
Joe BidenP80000722 ↗
Receipts
$1.1B
Disburse
$1.1B
Cash on hand
$260.5K
Debts
$0
No industry data.
No contributor data.
Donald TrumpP80001571 ↗
Receipts
$744.4M
Disburse
$752.9M
Cash on hand
$10.7M
Debts
$2.7M
No industry data.
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$8.1M
D side
$7.8M · 96%
R side
$353.6K · 4%
Top spender
PRIORITIES USA ACTION
For / against split
For Biden $6.0M
Against Trump $1.8M
Against Biden $22.7K
For Trump $330.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PRIORITIES USA ACTIOND$2.8M35%for Joe Biden
UNITE HERE PACD$953.8K12%for Joe Biden
FOR OUR FUTURED$952.5K12%against Donald Trump
VOTE NURSES VALUES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE: CALIFORNIA NURSES ASSOCIATIOND$729.8K9%for Joe Biden
PROGRESSNOW AZ - FEDERALD$714.3K9%for Joe Biden
UNIDOSUS ACTION PACD$495.9K6%for Joe Biden
SAFE AND SECURE AMERICA PACR$286.6K4%for Donald Trump
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$250.0K3%against Donald Trump
MIJENTE PACD$74.2K1%against Donald Trump

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 13, 2026likely-dpvi
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 11deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2021-02-25
Endorsementsnothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks