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Tilt RR +1.2 forecast · 20 days to election· 0 polls · 0 marketsRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
48% (D)
52% (R)
Win probability
Democrat48% (D)
Republican52% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +1.2
80% CIR+33.5 → D+31.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +1.2 · 80% CI R+33.5 → D+31.2 · 20 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Momentum
Now—
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now0.0%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
Now—
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now—
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified
model 52% R
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.5 (10th pctile) to D+31.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 52% chance of winning.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +1.2
80% CI: R +33.5 → D +31.2 · win prob 48%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used
0
Days to election
20
Residual σ
25.23pt
Generated
7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +6.8
80% CI R +17.9 → D +10.5
CV MAE 8.51
Demographic crosstabs
age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.