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Races · house · 2026 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Melissa Hernandez vs Wendy Huang

← California houseColorado house →
Safe DD +18.7 forecast · 1 month 11 days to election· 0 polls · 0 marketsRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
77% Hernandez (D)
23% Huang (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +18.7 · 80% CI R+13.7 → D+51.0 · 1 month 11 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 5d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

model 77% D

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+18.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.7 (10th pctile) to D+51.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 77% chance of winning.

Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +18.7
80% CI: R +13.7 → D +51.0 · win prob 77%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election41
Residual σ25.23pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +23.4
80% CI R +19.3 → D +40.9
CV MAE 8.51

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMelissa Hernandez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RWendy Huang0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IVictor Zevallos0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Dmodel
Jun 19, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks