Races · house · 2026 · CA
house · open seat
California house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified model 97% D
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +25.8
80% CI: D +8.3 → D +43.3 · win prob 97%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 27 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +25.8
80% CI D +8.3 → D +43.3
CV MAE 13.66
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/4/2026 Unrated via none
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