Races · house · 2026 · Washington
house · open seat
Kim Schrier vs Trinh Ha
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 86% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.5 (10th pctile) to D+29.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 86% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +13.6
80% CI: R +2.5 → D +29.7 · win prob 86%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.3
80% CI D +2.7 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.2
80% CI R +7.5 → R +0.9
CV MAE 2.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +10.7
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 87¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the WA-08 House seat?” | 87¢ | 12¢ | -4¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Kim Schrier10 · 100%
Trinh Ha0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DKim Schrier10 endorsers
Most notable · The Stranger
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- AIPAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Vote Mama
- Washington State Labor Council
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Stranger
RTrinh Ha0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19Kim SchrierH8WA08189 ↗
Receipts
$2.4M
Disburse
$982.9K
Cash on hand
$3.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$116.68
D side
$116.68 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $106.68 | 91% | for Kim Schrier |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 9% | for Kim Schrier |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
14 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
14 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles14
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.29
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.18 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.29
Week-over-weekshift −0.18 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 29%
Neutral 71%
29% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets29%
Neutral71%
R-leaning outlets0%
29% of outlets classified by editorial lean
O
Washington Roundup: Supreme Court issues major rulings; poll finds control of Senate up for grabs
A
Immigration is Trump's best and worst issue: ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll
N
Washington, D.C., Mayoral Election 2026: Latest Polls
W
Rep. White announces re-election campaign for Washington-2 House seat
T
Washington, D.C., USA Next250 Mega Rally Engulfs White House Corridors as America 250 Semiquincentennial Tourism Boom Collides With High-Intensity Grassroots Marches and Competing National Visions Ahead of July 4 Celebrations
J
Ilhan Omar endorses CAIR exec director for Washington state House race
N
Washington, D.C., Nonvoting House Delegate 2026: Latest Polls
N
Washington Fifth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
C
Fewer Canadians see U.S. as 'reliable' as global confidence in Washington sags: poll
C
Fewer Canadians see U.S. as 'reliable' as global confidence in Washington sags: poll
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage14 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks