Races · house · 2026 · Washington
house · open seat
Washington house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+15) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+11.1 (10th pctile) to D+43.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +27.2
80% CI: D +11.1 → D +43.3 · win prob 98%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +28.1
80% CI D +26.2 → D +41.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.2
80% CI R +7.5 → R +0.9
CV MAE 2.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the WA-01 House seat?” | 94¢ | 4¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 12 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet12
Endorsements tracked
Suzan DelBene12 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total12
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSuzan DelBene12 endorsers
Most notable · The Stranger
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- AIPAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Giffords
- J Street
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Washington State Labor Council
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The Stranger
IJames Etzkorn0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19Suzan DelBeneH0WA08046 ↗
Receipts
$2.7M
Disburse
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$495.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
James Etzkorn
Receipts
$2.7K
Disburse
$754.84
Cash on hand
$1.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Suzan DelBene |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements14 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks