Races · house · 2026 · VT
house · open seat
Vermont house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Safe D · model 99% D
safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +34.4
80% CI: D +16.9 → D +51.9 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +34.4
80% CI D +16.9 → D +51.9
CV MAE 13.66
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/4/2026 Safe D via pvi
In the news
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State Lawmakers Debate Regulations To Limit Excessive Motorcycle Noisecaledonianrecord.com · 1d ago -
Glimpses of Vermont Past : George Perkins Marshrutlandherald.com · 1d ago -
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Single - payer is a litmus test . There still no way to pay for it . – Lake County Record - Beerecord-bee.com · 1d ago -
UVM professor surveys residents on F - 35 noise exposurevtdigger.org · 1d ago -
Pied - a - Terrorists - Michael Grossmgross.com · 1d ago -
Ron Faucheux : When America turned 100 | Opiniontheadvocate.com · 1d ago - Genea - Musingsgeneamusings.com · 1d ago
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