Races · house · 2026 · Virginia
house · open seat
Pete Barlow vs Ben Cline
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.5 (10th pctile) to R+8.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.4
80% CI: R +40.5 → R +8.3 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +28.5
80% CI R +36.5 → R +19.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.1
80% CI R +7.0 → D +2.7
CV MAE 3.77
consensusMarket-implied
R +12.5
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 10¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat?” | 10¢ | 90¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
Pete Barlow0 · 0%
Ben Cline1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RBen Cline1 endorser
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DPete Barlow0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-03Ben ClineH8VA06104 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$697.9K
Cash on hand
$655.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Pete Barlow
Receipts
$114.8K
Disburse
$100.3K
Cash on hand
$14.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$6.3K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$6.3K · 100%
Top spender
FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $6.3K | 100% | for Ben Cline |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
11 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
11 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles11
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.27
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.27
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 27%
Neutral 73%
27% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets27%
Neutral73%
R-leaning outlets0%
27% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Virginia U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
W
2026 Virginia Special Election Results: Latest numbers for April 21, 2026
N
Virginia First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Virginia House of Delegates District 98 Special 2026: Live Election Results
A
West Virginia U.S. House Primary Election Live Results 2026
W
West Virginia poll: 69% oppose ending school vaccine rules, including 57% of GOP
C
Q&A with three candidates seeking Democratic nomination for Virginia’s 5th District
W
Virginia voter guide: Parties nominate candidates for Congress, local offices ahead of 2026 midterms
V
Who's running in Virginia's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
V
2026 early primary voting opens in Virginia
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-03
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage11 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks