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house · open seat

Shannon Taylor vs Rob Wittman

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Lean R — · 176 days to election · 1 polls · 0 markets Last poll 274d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 77% R

lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +10.3

80% CI: R +27.8 → D +7.3 · win prob 23%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	1
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models1 models

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +10.3

80% CI R +27.8 → D +7.3

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 1 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:1 of 1 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
8/9/2025	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	541	±4.2	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned274d old+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 274d old Poll was fielded 274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rob Wittman 41.0 · Shannon Taylor 40.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Apr 21	—	+18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe D	Apr 21	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Apr 21	—	+9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 9 months ago (8/9/2025) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/4/2026 Lean R via pvi