Races · house · 2026 · Virginia
house · open seat
Salaam Bhatti vs Bob Good
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 12d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 87% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+14.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+30.1 (10th pctile) to D+2.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 87% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +14.1
80% CI: R +30.1 → D +2.0 · win prob 13%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +15.5
80% CI R +23.4 → R +12.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.1
80% CI R +7.0 → D +2.7
CV MAE 3.77
consensusMarket-implied
R +6.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 24¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?” | 24¢ | 75¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Salaam Bhatti2 · 100%
Bob Good0 · 0%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSalaam Bhatti2 endorsers
Most notable · Progressive Victory
Other2
Other · 2
- Progressive Victory
- Track AIPAC
RBob Good0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Bob Good
Receipts
$44.6K
Disburse
$35.5K
Cash on hand
$13.5K
Debts
$34.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R2
Safe R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.18
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.18
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 18%
Neutral 82%
18% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets18%
Neutral82%
R-leaning outlets0%
18% of outlets classified by editorial lean
E
Election contests filed in West Virginia over unaffiliated voter participation
N
Virginia U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
C
Q&A with Virginia’s three Republican primary candidates for U.S. Senate
W
2026 Virginia Special Election Results: Latest numbers for April 21, 2026
N
Virginia House of Delegates District 98 Special 2026: Live Election Results
A
West Virginia U.S. House Primary Election Live Results 2026
N
Virginia First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
1
Primary Spotlight: Race for Virginia’s First Congressional District
W
West Virginia poll: 69% oppose ending school vaccine rules, including 57% of GOP
V
McGuire faces primary test as Democrats eye more competitive 5th District race
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks