Races · house · 2026 · Virginia
house · open seat
Nila Devanath vs Jen Kiggans
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 12d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 58% D · market gap 25pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 83%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.5 (10th pctile) to D+18.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 58% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 58%, market says 83% — 25pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.6
80% CI: R +13.5 → D +18.7 · win prob 58%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +3.0
80% CI R +17.6 → D +2.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.1
80% CI R +7.0 → D +2.7
CV MAE 3.77
consensusMarket-implied
D +8.4
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 31 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
30
Endorsements tracked
Nila Devanath1 · 3%
Jen Kiggans30 · 97%
Total31
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJen Kiggans30 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Other16
Other · 16
- Mark Takano · CA-39 (2013–present)
- Ritchie Torres · NY-15 (2021–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- 314 Action
- Center for Freethought Equality
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
- Lockheed Martin · ional security executive at Lockheed Martin
- Mark Warner · Virginia (2009–present)
- Population Connection
- Tim Kaine · Virginia (2013–present)
- USAID · ck Mosolf, former USAID official
- VoteVets
Elected officials9
Federal 4State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Abigail Spanberger · governor of Virginia (2026–present)
- Terry McAuliffe · former governor of Virginia (2014–2018)
- Aaron Rouse · state senator from the 22nd district (2023–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2025
- Elaine Luria · former U.S. representative (2019–2023)
- Louise Lucas · Senate president pro tempore (2020–present) from the 18th district (1992–present)
- Matt Strickler · former Virginia Secretary of Natural Resources (2018–2021)
- running for state senate · l security strategist
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- ClearPath Foundation
- Equality PAC
- League of Conservation Voters
- Maggie's List
- NewDem Action Fund
DNila Devanath1 endorser
Most notable · Tidewater DSA
Other1
Other · 1
- Tidewater DSA
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-27Jen KiggansH2VA02064 ↗
Receipts
$4.7M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$3.0M
Debts
$61.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Nila Devanath
Receipts
$230.4K
Disburse
$164.7K
Cash on hand
$65.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$183.4K
D side
$92.4K · 50%
R side
$91.0K · 50%
Top spender
CLEARPATH ACTION FU…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. other · boosts R
| R | $91.0K | 50% | for Jen Kiggans |
| ABLE DEMS PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $1.8K | 1% | against Jen Kiggans |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jul 5
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-27
Endorsements50 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks